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$BTC REALITY CHECK: BITCOIN’S −37% DROP IS NOT A BOTTOM SIGNAL

Bitcoin has already slid ~37% from its all-time high — and while the pain feels extreme, history says this is not where bear markets usually end. According to long-term drawdown data, this move still sits in the early phase of the contraction, not the final washout.

Look at prior cycles:
• 2011: −93%
• 2013–2015: −85%
• 2017–2018: −84%
• 2021–2022: −75%

Yes, Bitcoin is maturing — and yes, drawdowns have become less brutal over time. But they never disappear. Volatility is the price of admission. Statistically, the zone where cycles have actually found their footing tends to be much deeper.

📌 Most probable bottom range: −60% to −70% from ATH

That doesn’t mean price must crash straight there. It means time, pain, and exhaustion usually come first.

Markets don’t bottom when fear begins - they bottom when fear is fully accepted.

Is this just another violent leg down…or the slow march toward the zone where real opportunity forms?

#Bitcoin #Crypto #MarketCycles #wendy