— 𝐈𝐦 𝐦𝐚𝐭 𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐀𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬! 🇺🇸🔥
Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng 𝐔𝐒 (𝐂𝐏𝐈) được mong chờ từ lâu cho tháng 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 — bị trì hoãn do chính phủ đóng cửa — cuối cùng sẽ được phát hành vào tối nay, định hình tâm trạng cho cả thị trường 𝐰𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 và thị trường 𝐜𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 trước cuộc họp của 𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞 vào ngày 𝟐𝟖–𝟐𝟗 𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫.
🔶 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐂𝐏𝐈 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐬𝐮𝐚𝐥
◈ The release arrives 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐰, with Washington’s government shutdown entering its 4th week — adding uncertainty to economic stability.
◈ 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐝𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝟗𝟓%, according to CME FedWatch data, making this CPI the 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐭 for monetary direction.
◈ Inflation expectations remain sticky; 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐏𝐈 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐭 𝟑.𝟏% 𝐲𝐨𝐲, signaling inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
🔶 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐡 𝐃𝐢𝐭𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐠 💥
◈ 𝐇𝐨𝐚 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐯𝐚̀𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐭 $2,640, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐢 𝐫𝐨𝐢 𝐛𝐢𝐭 𝐯𝐚̀ 𝐧𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞.
◈ 𝐒𝐢𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐫 rallied over 6% weekly, extending its safe-haven bid ahead of the CPI print.
◈ 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 ($BTC ) has traded in a tight consolidation around $109K–$113K, with whales waiting for CPI confirmation before taking new leverage positions.
◈ Meanwhile, the 𝐔𝐒 𝐃𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 (𝐃𝐗𝐘) is showing its weakest momentum since June, hinting at growing rate-cut sentiment.
🔶 𝐇𝐨𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐀𝐍𝐇𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆™ 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐝 ⚡
◈ Nếu 𝐂𝐏𝐈 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 (≤𝟑%), expect 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 $𝐁𝐓𝐂 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐎𝐋𝐃, possibly triggering a short-squeeze across risk assets.
◈ A 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 (≥𝟑.𝟐%) print would fuel 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤-𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠, dragging equities and crypto lower temporarily.
◈ 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧’𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 (𝐍𝐞𝐨𝐖𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐲) still supports a final rally phase toward $150K–$170K, aligning perfectly with a dovish CPI outcome.
🧭 𝐇𝐨𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐀𝐍𝐇𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆™ 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭
> “𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 — 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥 𝐬𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞.
𝐓𝐨𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭’𝐬 𝐂𝐏𝐈 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐰𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞:𝟑 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟕𝟎𝐊 — 𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝:𝟑 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 $𝟗𝟖𝐊.
📰 Nguồn: Cục Thống kê Lao động (BLS), Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading Heights Macro Desk
📍 Phân tích bởi: @Trading Heights
