Whale activity has once again become a focal point for HYPE, after Fasanara Capital transferred 25,000 HYPE, worth approximately $667,700, to Bybit, raising concerns about potential sell-side pressure.
Previously, this wallet received 500,000 HYPE (valued at nearly $13.3 million) from a burn-related address, a move that temporarily reduced circulating supply and eased immediate market pressure. However, exchange inflows—regardless of size—often carry greater signaling value than total net flows, as they typically reflect trading intent rather than confirmed selling.
Despite the recent transfer, the wallet still holds around 575,000 HYPE, equivalent to roughly $15.4 million, meaning that the majority of its holdings remain off exchanges. Even so, small deposits can still influence short-term liquidity, especially in a market where price structure is already fragile.
As a result, traders are increasingly questioning whether this move represents strategic distribution or merely a liquidity test. Notably, this activity coincides with rising derivatives pressure, amplifying near-term uncertainty.
Descending Price Channel Continues to Cap Recoveries
On the daily chart, HYPE remains firmly confined within a well-defined descending channel, characterized by a sequence of lower highs since September.
Recently, buyers successfully defended the lower boundary around the $22–$24 range, allowing for a modest rebound. However, the recovery stalled quickly beneath the midline of the channel, reinforcing the dominance of the broader downtrend.
Key resistance remains concentrated between $28 and $30, an area that previously acted as strong support. Each rebound attempt into this zone has weakened rapidly, highlighting persistent selling pressure and a lack of sustained bullish conviction.
The RSI hovers in the low-to-mid 40s, suggesting price stabilization rather than a trend reversal. Overall, current price action reflects a temporary equilibrium, not a shift in market control. Until HYPE decisively breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel, any upside movement is likely to remain corrective.
Short Positions Gain a Slight Edge as Sentiment Shifts
Derivatives data indicates a mild bearish tilt in market sentiment. On the 4-hour Long/Short Ratio, short positions account for approximately 52%, while longs represent 48%.
This imbalance points to growing downside expectations, though not outright panic. Importantly, short exposure has increased gradually, implying that traders are positioning proactively rather than reacting impulsively.
This trend aligns with the recent whale deposits to Bybit, reinforcing concerns about sell-side risk. Still, the short advantage remains moderate, leaving room for sharp volatility. If selling pressure intensifies, shorts may gain confidence; conversely, if downside momentum stalls, late short entrants could become vulnerable to squeezes.
Liquidation Data Signals Pressure, Not Capitulation
Recent liquidation data shows approximately $557,000 in long positions being liquidated, compared to just $9,700 in shorts.
This imbalance suggests that recent price declines have primarily cleared leveraged long positions, rather than forcing shorts to exit. However, liquidation volumes remain contained, with no evidence of cascading sell-offs or panic-driven capitulation.
Buyers continue to appear near lower price levels, helping to limit deeper drawdowns. That said, repeated long liquidations also undermine recovery attempts, preventing sustained upside momentum.
Overall, liquidation trends support a scenario of gradual downside pressure, keeping HYPE anchored within its dominant bearish structure rather than triggering a sharp collapse.
Positive Funding Rates Increase Downside Risk
Funding rates weighted by open interest remain positive at around +0.0148%, despite the bearish price structure and increasing short exposure.
This indicates that longs are still paying to maintain positions, even as price struggles. Such persistence can be risky: if selling pressure accelerates, these longs may face forced liquidations.
Historically, positive funding during downtrends often reflects positioning imbalances, signaling overconfidence rather than strength. As a result, elevated funding can exacerbate downside moves if sentiment shifts abruptly.
Until funding cools or price structure improves meaningfully, long-side exposure remains vulnerable.
Conclusion
HYPE continues to face steady selling pressure amid whale exchange inflows, though there are no clear signs of aggressive distribution at this stage. Price remains locked within a descending channel, while positive funding and repeated long liquidations highlight a misalignment in leverage.
Shorts currently hold a slight advantage, but sentiment is not overwhelmingly bearish. Overall, downside pressure appears controlled rather than explosive.
If exchange inflows do not escalate significantly, HYPE is likely to remain range-bound, with upside attempts capped and deeper downside risk emerging only if selling pressure intensifies sharply.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects a personal market analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and are solely responsible for any investment decisions.
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