Bitcoin’s recent upside momentum has begun to slow after failing to hold above the $97,000 level, with prices currently stabilizing around $95,500. The pullback comes after three consecutive bullish sessions that lifted BTC nearly 8%, triggering approximately $465 million in Bitcoin futures short liquidations. Despite the strong rebound, broader market data suggests that retail investors remain cautious and largely sidelined.
One of the clearest signals of this hesitation is visible in derivatives markets. Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates fell to around 4%, indicating limited demand for leveraged long positions. In balanced or risk-on environments, funding rates typically range between 8% and 12% to compensate for capital costs. The subdued funding environment suggests that traders are unwilling to aggressively chase upside, even after recent gains.
Institutional Flows Offset Retail Apathy
While retail participation remains muted, institutional capital continues to provide structural support. U.S. equity markets, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, are trading just 1.6% below all-time highs, buoyed by strong earnings such as TSMC’s 35% quarterly profit growth. However, Bitcoin is still trading roughly 25% below its record high of $126,219, highlighting the divergence between crypto and traditional risk assets.
Google Trends data reinforces the lack of enthusiasm from smaller investors. Global search interest for the term “crypto” currently stands at 27 out of 100, near its 12-month low. Retail traders often gravitate toward assets showing rapid short-term outperformance — a trend recently reflected in silver’s 28% rally over two weeks — while Bitcoin’s steadier recovery has struggled to capture attention.
Macro and Political Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
Investor skepticism is also fueled by macro and political risks. Ongoing investigations into renovation costs at the U.S. Federal Reserve have raised concerns about potential political pressure on monetary policy, especially with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in April. Markets are increasingly speculating about looser financial conditions in the second half of 2026, but uncertainty remains high.
Bitcoin has yet to consistently prove itself as a reliable hedge during periods of economic instability. As equities and precious metals rise, many retail participants remain wary that crypto assets could suffer disproportionately in a downturn.
Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook. Escalating rhetoric involving Iran — a key global oil producer — and recent U.S. military actions in Latin America have added another layer of risk to global markets, encouraging defensive positioning rather than speculative exposure.
Long-Term Demand Still Intact
Despite short-term hesitation, structural demand for Bitcoin remains strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $120 billion in assets under management, and publicly listed companies continue to follow aggressive accumulation strategies inspired by Michael Saylor, with corporate Bitcoin holdings exceeding $105 billion in total value.
While retail caution may keep Bitcoin range-bound in the near term, institutional participation could remain the decisive force pushing BTC toward the psychologically important $100,000 milestone in the coming months.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects a personal market perspective. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Readers should conduct their own research and assume full responsibility for their decisions.
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