ARPA recently drew strong market attention after surging over 60% within 24 hours, reaching around 0.0204 USDT. The move was driven by meaningful catalysts rather than pure hype, notably ARPA’s confirmed transition toward an independent privacy-focused Layer-1 blockchain and the launch of a zero-knowledge–based verifiable AI framework. These developments place ARPA at the intersection of two dominant narratives: AI and privacy in Web3.
From a market perspective, ARPA’s positioning aligns well with broader trends seen in ETH’s zk-centric roadmap and SOL’s Layer-1 adoption cycle. On-chain data supports this bullish narrative, with 54 whale addresses averaging entries near 0.0195 USDT, currently holding profitable positions. Buyer volume surged by more than 5,800%, signaling strong speculative interest and short-term momentum inflows.
Technically, momentum remains constructive but slightly overheated. On the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, EMA and KDJ indicators are aligned bullishly, while MACD continues to expand in positive territory. However, RSI hovering around 73 and price interaction with the upper Bollinger Band suggest the rally may pause or retrace before attempting another leg higher.
Risk factors remain moderate but should not be ignored. After a sharp 60% advance, historical patterns point to a possible 8–12% corrective pullback, especially if price loses support near 0.018 USDT, where whale profit-taking could accelerate. Broader market conditions also matter, as BTC’s vulnerability around the 91K area may temporarily suppress risk appetite across altcoins.
From a strategy standpoint, the trend bias for ARPA stays bullish, but the optimal approach favors patience. Instead of chasing strength, a retracement entry zone around 0.0145–0.0155 USDT offers a more attractive risk-to-reward setup, with upside targets in the 0.024–0.025 USDT range. As long as market structure holds, ARPA appears more like a continuation setup than a one-day pump, provided risk is managed carefully.
