Bitcoin price has remained largely unchanged over the past 24 hours, hovering around the $89,000–$89,500 zone. While this sideways action may appear calm on the surface, the broader context tells a more fragile story. BTC is still down nearly 6% on the weekly timeframe, and multiple technical and on-chain signals suggest the market is entering a critical standoff rather than preparing for a fresh upside breakout.
What looks like consolidation may instead be buyers defending key levels, not aggressively building new momentum. Beneath the surface, pressure is quietly increasing — and a less-discussed group is beginning to matter more.
Doji-Like Candles and EMA Loss Signal Defensive Buying
Over the past three daily sessions, Bitcoin has printed doji-like candles, characterized by small real bodies and long upper and lower wicks. These candles typically signal indecision, but in this context, they lean more toward distribution and defense than balance.
Sellers continue to push price lower intraday, while buyers step in late to absorb sell pressure — a pattern that slows declines but fails to reverse them. Importantly, this price behavior is occurring near the lower boundary of a rising wedge, a structure that slopes upward while compressing price action.
Historically, rising wedges tend to resolve with a breakdown once support gives way. If that occurs, the measured downside target sits near $77,300, implying a potential decline of roughly 13% from current levels.
Technical pressure intensified after Bitcoin lost its 20-day EMA on January 20. Exponential moving averages place greater weight on recent price action, making them particularly sensitive to short-term trend shifts. The last clean break below the 20-day EMA, on December 12, was followed by an 8% correction. This time, BTC has already fallen around 5% and is now stalling — suggesting buyers are slowing the move, not flipping the trend.
In short, this is less a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and more a scenario where buyers are attempting to delay a deeper move lower.
Long-Term Holders Are Still Buying — but Momentum Is Fading
On-chain data provides insight into who is still supporting price. Long-term holders (LTHs) — wallets holding BTC for 155 days or more — remain net buyers, as tracked by the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric.
Over the past two weeks, this indicator has stayed positive, helping explain why Bitcoin has not experienced a sharp breakdown. However, the intensity of accumulation is clearly declining.
On January 19, long-term holders added approximately 22,618 BTC. By January 23, daily net buying had fallen to around 17,109 BTC, representing a 24% drop in accumulation strength within just four days.
Support still exists, but it is becoming thinner. This slowdown aligns closely with the doji-like candle structure on the chart — buying is present, but conviction is weakening.
By itself, this may not be enough to trigger a breakdown. The issue is that another source of selling pressure is rising at the same time.
Miners Emerge as an Underappreciated Source of Risk
One of the most overlooked shifts in the current market comes from Bitcoin miners.
The Miner Net Position Change, which tracks the 30-day change in BTC held by miner wallets, has turned increasingly negative. On January 9, miners reduced holdings by roughly 335 BTC. By January 23, that figure had surged to around 2,826 BTC — an eightfold increase in selling pressure in just two weeks.
The underlying driver appears to be declining network fees. According to analyst data, Bitcoin miners earned approximately 194 BTC in monthly fees in May 2025. By January 2026, that number had dropped to roughly 59 BTC, a decline of nearly 70%.
Lower fee revenue compresses miner margins, increasing the likelihood that miners sell BTC to cover operational costs. While this selling is not yet aggressive enough to trigger panic, it adds pressure at a time when buyer strength is already fading.
Meanwhile, whale behavior has begun to flatten. The number of large BTC addresses rose steadily from January 9 to January 22 before plateauing and slightly declining. This suggests early-stage distribution rather than outright capitulation — but it reinforces the idea that upside momentum is weakening.
Key Bitcoin Levels Will Decide the Outcome
At current prices near $89,500, Bitcoin is approaching a decision point.
A daily close above $91,000 would allow BTC to reclaim the 20-day EMA, easing short-term downside pressure and signaling that buyers are regaining control.
On the other hand, a daily close below $88,500 would place Bitcoin firmly back below rising wedge support. If that happens, downside targets quickly come into focus.
Key levels to watch:
$84,300 – first major support
$77,300 – projected wedge breakdown target
If long-term holder accumulation continues to slow while miner selling persists, these lower levels become increasingly relevant in the weeks ahead.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects personal market analysis. It does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making any financial decisions. The author is not responsible for any investment outcomes.
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