BTC is currently trading below key long-term indicators, including the 200-day SMA and the 2-year Moving Average, a condition that historically appears only a few times per cycle. This does not confirm a bottom, and further downside remains possible. However, when price trades in this zone, the risk-reward profile begins to shift, with downside becoming more defined relative to long-term upside.
These phases typically favor scaling entries, strict risk management, and patience, rather than chasing confirmation. Reclaiming the 200 SMA with volume would improve structure, but waiting for full confirmation has historically meant higher entry prices. This is not a signal — it’s a long-term opportunity window where probability gradually changes.