Bitcoin has plunged below the critical $80,000 support level, marking its lowest price in nine months and triggering one of the most aggressive liquidation events seen in recent months.
According to BeInCrypto data, BTC dropped more than 6%, briefly touching $77,082 before staging a modest rebound. This is the first time Bitcoin has traded at these levels since April 2025, raising fresh concerns about the market’s broader trend.
Bitcoin Falls Below On-Chain “Fair Value” for the First Time in Years
More importantly, this decline has pushed Bitcoin below key on-chain valuation metrics.
Data from Glassnode shows that BTC has fallen under its True Market Mean, currently estimated at $80,500, for the first time in nearly 30 months. The last time Bitcoin breached this level was in late 2023, when prices hovered around $29,000.
Historically, a sustained move below the True Market Mean often signals a transition from a bullish expansion phase into a mid-term bear or consolidation phase.
At the same time, the pressure on holders has intensified:
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: ~$95,400
Active Investor Mean: ~$87,300
With spot prices now well below these levels, a large portion of market participants are sitting on unrealized losses, creating significant psychological and technical resistance overhead.
$2.6 Billion Liquidated as Leverage Unwinds
This breakdown triggered a violent deleveraging event across global derivatives markets.
According to CoinGlass, approximately $2.58 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated during the sell-off. The damage was heavily skewed toward one side of the market:
Long liquidations: ~$2.42 billion
Largest long squeeze in the past three months
Ethereum traders were hit the hardest, suffering $1.15 billion in liquidations, while Bitcoin-related liquidations exceeded $772 million.
This data suggests that traders were overleveraged while defending the $80,000 level, only to be forced out as downside momentum accelerated.
Liquidity Exhaustion, Not Panic Selling
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju attributed the decline not to panic, but to buyer liquidity exhaustion.
According to him, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has flatlined, indicating that new capital inflows — particularly from institutions — have stalled. While early investors continue to distribute holdings accumulated during the 2025 rally, there is currently insufficient fresh demand to absorb the supply.
Ju also noted that MicroStrategy (MSTR) played a major role in driving the previous rally. However, he emphasized that unless Michael Saylor dramatically reduces his BTC exposure, a catastrophic -70% drawdown similar to past cycles remains unlikely.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Rather than expecting a sharp collapse, Ju suggests the market may enter a period of wide-ranging sideways consolidation, allowing a new structural floor to form.
In this environment:
Volatility may remain elevated
Leverage will likely stay suppressed
Price discovery could take place over months, not weeks
For now, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from momentum-driven expansion to a capital rotation and consolidation phase.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial losses.
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