btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Crypto Fear & Greed index turned to greed for the first time in 3 months. Technically this was confirmed by BTC breaking (and closing) above its 94650 Resistance for the first time in 2 months.
With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) turning into a Support and getting confirmed by holding upon the January 08 test, we can see the emergence of a short-term Channel Up.
As we've explained for over a month now, this is potentially the typical market reaction that previous Bear Cycles have done historically, where after completing the first strong decline that gets most of investors off guard, it makes the first counter-trend rally (dead cat bounce) that technically tests the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This time, the rebound is being made after the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) got tested and held.
With the 1D RSI about to enter the Overbought Zone (70.00 and above), where the last two times (October 06 and July 14 2025) it got rejected, we may see the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up extending to around +17.50% (where the previous one was rejected), make a Higher High, then pull-back to re-test the 1D MA50 and then finally go for the benchmark test of the 1D MA200.
We estimate a potential Bear Cycle rejection Zone within $102000 - 105000, before the Cycle starts Phase 2 with a new long-term sell-off.
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The price of #BTC might hit 100k if us strike iran and here is why I think so
The United States dollar is one of the strong pillars that usa has. The value of this dollar is driven by the demand ( how many people want it mostly for business), If many people want its value increases.
If the dollar increase in value #BTCUSD price fall, think of it as how many mangos you would buy in the market if your currency has much value, they would be many than usual right? The same applies to number of btc you can buy if the $ value is high
So what happen when if the $ value crash? The bitcoin price will go up since you will need much dollars than usual to buy it
This why I think #US war on #iran will lead to increase in btc value
1) investors will fear to store their assets in dollars as the country is engaged in war, they will fear to continue investing in American companies since their growth might be affected by war, this will reduce the dollar value making btc price rise
2) people will demand btc much more to do trade as it is not controlled by any government
3) iran currency has fallen meaning they will need a way to buy ( trade) war material internationally and of course they can't use dollar they might need crypto as it is accepted internationally and more secure

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to consolidate during these (almost) past 2 months as it is headed towards a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test, where it was rejected on the last Bear Cycle and started its Stage 2. This Stage is what typically leads to the Cycle bottom, which is essentially the most optimal level for a long-term investor to enter/ buy.
One of the best indicators to call out a Cycle bottom is the Net Unrealize Profit Loss (NUPL). As you can see (black trend-line), when this has historically hit its green line, BTC was on excellent buy opportunity levels (green vertical zones) as the Bear Cycle bottom was priced immediately after.
The last Cycle bottom also happened to be exactly on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which the March 2020 COVID flash crash also approached. As a result, it would be no surprise to see BTC hit that level on the next Cycle bottom as well, which according to its current trajectory, this test could be around $50000. But as mentioned, the strongest buy indication would be the NUPL touching its green trend-line regardless of BTC's price at the moment.
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