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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Crypto Fear & Greed index turned to greed for the first time in 3 months. Technically this was confirmed by BTC breaking (and closing) above its 94650 Resistance for the first time in 2 months.
With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) turning into a Support and getting confirmed by holding upon the January 08 test, we can see the emergence of a short-term Channel Up.
As we've explained for over a month now, this is potentially the typical market reaction that previous Bear Cycles have done historically, where after completing the first strong decline that gets most of investors off guard, it makes the first counter-trend rally (dead cat bounce) that technically tests the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This time, the rebound is being made after the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) got tested and held.
With the 1D RSI about to enter the Overbought Zone (70.00 and above), where the last two times (October 06 and July 14 2025) it got rejected, we may see the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up extending to around +17.50% (where the previous one was rejected), make a Higher High, then pull-back to re-test the 1D MA50 and then finally go for the benchmark test of the 1D MA200.
We estimate a potential Bear Cycle rejection Zone within $102000 - 105000, before the Cycle starts Phase 2 with a new long-term sell-off.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target:

This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles.
With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming.
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$XMR #Monero #XMR #XMRUSD #XMRUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to consolidate during these (almost) past 2 months as it is headed towards a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test, where it was rejected on the last Bear Cycle and started its Stage 2. This Stage is what typically leads to the Cycle bottom, which is essentially the most optimal level for a long-term investor to enter/ buy.
One of the best indicators to call out a Cycle bottom is the Net Unrealize Profit Loss (NUPL). As you can see (black trend-line), when this has historically hit its green line, BTC was on excellent buy opportunity levels (green vertical zones) as the Bear Cycle bottom was priced immediately after.
The last Cycle bottom also happened to be exactly on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which the March 2020 COVID flash crash also approached. As a result, it would be no surprise to see BTC hit that level on the next Cycle bottom as well, which according to its current trajectory, this test could be around $50000. But as mentioned, the strongest buy indication would be the NUPL touching its green trend-line regardless of BTC's price at the moment.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has closed the last 2M candle on a MACD Bearish Cross. Every time this has happened historically (2 times), Bitcoin has dropped by -67.66% and -68.75% from he top of that candle.
If history is repeated, a new -67.66% would deliver $36500 as the bottom of the current Bear Cycle. This time though, that would be below the MA50 (blue trend-line), so a range of 44500 - 36500 might be more appropriate.
In any case, this latest Bearish Cross comes as another confirmation of a 2026 Bear Cycle.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Binance Coin (BNBUSD) has been consolidating for 7 weeks (almost 2 months) ever since the November 7 2025 Low on top of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The Bear Cycle that has started on the October Top, can technically be the new Bearish Leg of BNB's 4-year Channel Up.
Having already made a 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross, which brought the Low of Phase 1 on the previous (2022) Bear Cycle, we now focus on whether this 7-week consolidation will lead to a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement test (as on April 04 2022) or straight to Phase 2.
Technically, in order for Phase 2 to begin, BNB should break below its 2-year Higher Lows trend-line. That is the confirmation. Right now the price action is fairly symmetrical to 2022, being around the 0.618 Fib of a potential -71.81% total Bear Cycle decline (as in 2022).
As a result, $400 is still a possible Target but since the 1W MA250 (red trend-line) was what supported the previous Bear Cycle, a fair 'modest' Target would be $525, which would make contact with both the 1W MA250 and the 0.236 Fib.
Nevertheless, a good level for a long-term investor to start buying, regardless of the price tag, would be when the 1W RSI will get oversold (at 30.00).
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$BNB #bnb #BNBUSD #BNBUSDT #signals #BinanceCoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has always priced its bottom below its Realized Price (red trend-line) on every signal Bear Cycle it had.
In fact the bottom was considerably lower than the Realized Price. The last two Bear Cycles (2022 and 2018) have had fairly similar bottoms, dropping by -33.80% and -35.45% respectively from the moment the price broke below the Realized Price.
Based on where the Realized Price is now (which by the time BTC hits it, will be lower) a rounded up -30% decline would have us reach $39000. The Realized Price deviation band (orange cloud) however would be just under $45000 towards the end of the year (which is roughly when we expect the Bear Cycle to end)
As a result, a fair bottom zone could be $45000 - $39000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started its new Bear Cycle since its October All Time High (ATH). We're past that, we've covered this extensively during the past 3 months. What's more important now is to cover the next stages, which is something we've started doing recently, in order to get a better understanding of the potential course of this Bear Cycle.
Right now BTC is consolidating within its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which is a familiar pattern during all prior Bear Cycle, where after a 1W MA50 rejection, it starts Stage 2 of the Cycle.
The last Bear Cycle bottomed exactly on the 1W MA350 (black trend-line). The two before it, hit the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) before rebounding (and it was a secondary Low). As a result the 1W MA300-350 form a strong Support Zone and is the strongest candidate for the new bottom as well. Contact with the 1W MA350 (based on its current trajectory) should be made around $50000. A 45-50k potential Buy Zone would be more fair.
In any case, based on BTC's parabolic growth curve and the diminishing Fibonacci extension on each Bull Cycle Top, we expect the next ATH to be on its 1.382 Fib extension, i.e. around $180000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

XRP (XRPUSD) is on a strong 2-week rise following a Low late in 2025 on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This rally is about to test its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 months.
Practically, the market has been ranging between the 1W MA50-100 Zone in a similar way it did back during the previous Bear Cycle. Basically this is not the first time we present to you this chart, we first published it 2 months ago claiming that XRP has already started its new Bear Cycle following its July 2025 All Time High (ATH) and that this Cycle is the Bearish Leg of the market's 5-year Channel Up pattern.
If the market continues to replicate the 2021/22 structure, then this 1W MA50 test should produce a rejection that will take us to the 2nd stage of the Bear Cycle, which is a break below the 1W MA100 within 2 months time and an eventual bottom on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and 1M MA100 (red trend-line) test at $0.9000.
Notice also how similar the 1W RSI structures are among the two Bear Cycle fractals, with the current rebound taking place on he Symmetrical Support (blue arrows) just like it did on January 22 2022.
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$XRP #xrp #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT #signals #Ripple

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and especially the altcoin market, has been rising strongly every since Maduro's capture by the U.S., which is the most dominant macro geopolitical event since perhaps Trump's global tariffs a little less than a year ago.
So what does that mean, that such an act is good for the crypto market? Well not quite. Macro economic and geopolitical unrest events like this have acted as catalysts for major market movements that rarely are to the upside.
Some may argue that BTC is purely acting on its original inception role, a safe haven against times of uncertainty/ volatility. But what we see on these first trading days of 2026, is that the market is so far following the historical Bear Cycle print that all previous cycles followed.
What's that? It broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over 2 months, marking the first Low of the new Bear Cycle. What all previous Bear Cycles did when that break-out took place, was a short-term rebound (counter trend rally) that always hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. In 2 times out of 3, it also tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent Low.
After that 1D MA200 test was concluded, the bearish trend was resumed and the price bottomed towards the end of that year. In 2 out of 3 Cycles again, the bottom was at or below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Cycle Low. Only the 2014 Cycle differed but that's to be expected as it was the first one and at the same time most aggressive. The current 0.382 Fib with a Target price of $56700, would be much less aggressive, which is natural due to the Theory of Diminishing Returns and Bitcoin's price stabilization as mass adoption kicks in more and more with each passing Cycle.
As a result, what we still think (presented this possibility over a month ago) the market will do now is rally towards 100k and then start Phase 2 of the Bear Cycle to bottom at least on $56700.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is testing yet again its Lower Highs trend-line, which is the Resistance that started on the October 07 2025 All Time High (ATH). This has failed to break two times already, causing strong rejections but this time we may finally see it breaking.
The reason, apart from the bullish RSI on Higher Lows, is that today's 1D candle is so far finding support on the 1D MA50 for the first time since the downtrend started and if it closes above it, it will be a first.
The result can be a Channel Up, which technically is a Bear Flag inside the new Bear Cycle, whose potential symmetrical +31.47% Bullish Leg can target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 3600.
Why is the 1D MA200 so important? Because it's been the technical Target of every first Dead-cat-bounce during ETH's previous Bear Cycles.
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$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

Happy New Year with our best wishes to you and your loved ones!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed the year with a feat that it has historically never done before. And that's closing a year in red (losses) within a Bull Cycle.
So far, the traditional technical pattern was that after a Bear Cycle, BTC posted at least 3 straight green years. The last, post-Halving year was always green (gains).
That held up until yesterday with a red yearly (12-month) candle after two bullish ones in 2023 and 2024. Could that be the end of the traditional 4-year Cycle Theory? Well we don't believe that quite yet. As long as the market makes a new All Time High (or at least Cycle High in the decades that will follow market maturity and mass adoption) on year 4, then the 4-year Cycle Theory should remain the dominant pattern.
Nevertheless, that was a historic first for Bitcoin and we couldn't be more excited on what the future holds! Happy New Year again everybody!
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Not much analysis is needed to address today's topic. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will close tomorrow not only the year (2025) but also the month (December). This is a critical closing as the 1M (monthly) candle is currently red and if it closes this way (i.e. roughly below $90300), BTC will complete three straight red months.
Why this s important? Because during its 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle, it never had three bearish 1M candles in a row and that could be a definitive confirmation that the new Bear Cycle is already underway.
In fact it would be almost a perfect match with the first 3 months of the previous Bear Cycle, which were also 3 straight red ones (November 2021 - January 2022), also supported by the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). A lifeline of encouragement would be however that, following those first 3 red candles of the previous Bear Cycle, the market found support on the 1W MA100 and rebounded the next two months (but of course only to drop more aggressively in the later stages).
It has to be noted also at this point that 3 straight red months has historically been a strong feature of Bear Cycle activity. In fact only twice Bitcoin displayed 3 straight red months during Bull Cycles: April - June 2021 and July - September 2019.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) touched its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time after 2 months (since October 28) and immediately got rejected. This is potentially an early sign that not only does the market remain bearish, but it prepares a strong move downwards.
However, that can't be confirmed as long as the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) holds, which as you see has been tested and held (closed all candles above it) 3 times since November 21.
The above mentioned MA trend-lines go along a Lower Highs and Higher Lows trend-line respectively, acting as the Resistance and Support of the market since its October All Time High (ATH).
As a result, if the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we expect that counter-trend rally in early 2026 to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and this at least $100000, like BTC did during all its previous Bear Cycles. If on the other hand the Higher Lows trend-line breaks first, we expect a minimum -14.96% decline (the least drop sequence since the start of the Bear Cycle) targeting $77000.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

First of all allow me to wish everyone Merry Christmas with Tradingshot's best wishes to everyone for great health and prosperity!
Now as far as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is concerned, this chart on the 1W time-frame displays once more its symmetry among Cycles at its very best.
They key component here is the Supertrend. Every time this indicator turned red (bearish) as it has done now since November 10, BTC has already started its Bear Cycle. The amazing symmetry here is found in the past 5 weeks when the price has been ranging within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As you can see the moment it broke below the 1W MA100, it also breached the 0.182 Fibonacci retracement level and entered the 0.182 - 0.236 Fib Zone. This has happened every single time with remarkable precision since the 2014 Bear Cycle. The last two Cycles bottomed on the 0.382 Fib at least.
So what does that mean for us now/ today? Well first of all, the current Bear Cycle is likely to reach $56500 (0.382 Fib) at least. Secondly, every Bear Cycle bottomed around 44 - 46 weeks after the Supertrend turned red. This gives us a fair time horizon for the potential bottom around September 14 2026.
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#BTC $BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Zcash (ZECUSD) has been the revelation of this Bull Cycle as it's been the last major coin to rally from mid September to mid November, outside of the main Altseason. It broke above last Cycle's Top but for more than a month, it's been showing clear signs that the market has peaked. The last indicator to confirm that is the 1W MACD, which has completed a Bearish Cross.
ZEC's main long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the February 20 2017 Low and the recent Cycle Top is technically a Lower High, which structurally initiates a Bearish Leg. This Bearish Leg is the market's new Bear Cycle.
The previous two Bear Cycles bottomed on the 1.05 Fibonacci extension, dropping dramatically by -97.94% and -95.78% respectively. As a result, we have a minimum Target of $32.00 (-95.78%) and can see an overextension to $13.00 (Fib 1.05), which is riskier. The most effective indicator for a long-term buy again regardless of the price, is when the 1M MACD forms a Bullish Cross.
Also, see how well the Sine Waves grasp the cyclical behavior of this pattern, timing both the Tops and Bottoms very well. We also need to mention the 1W Golden Cross, which seems to be formed just before a Bull Cycle peaks.
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#zcash $ZEC #ZECUSD #ZECUSDT #signals #zec

We've been showing you since September why Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was structured to start a new Bear Cycle in October, mostly based on the very accurate 4-year Cycle Theory. Recently we've published analyses of the last indicators that practically confirmed that the market has already entered this Bear Cycle.
Today, with a combination of the Pi Cycle bands and the Aroon Oscillator, we basically display the investor mentality as the market transitions from Bull to Bear and again back to Bull.
First of all, even the 3W time-frame has confirmed that by breaking a closing a 3W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC confirmed in late October the start of the Bear Cycle. As you can see that happened before on December 27 2021, May 07 2018 and August 04 2014. Every time that happened, the Bear Cycle was a fact.
We are now within the 1W MA50 - Pi Cycle (green) Support trend-line Zone, which is part of the 'Denial of Bear Cycle' Phase, where the majority of the market doesn't/ can't accept the trend change. Below the Pi Cycle Support starts the 'Bitcoin going to 0' hysteria where the majority of the market starts turning from bullish to bearish, having accepted the Bear Cycle, making extravagant calls on Bitcoin's potential bottom.
This is when the very reliable Aroon Oscillator turns bearish below 0.00. Once this hits its Buy Zone, it has historically been a fair time to start buying again for the long-term. That is when bearishness across the market is at its peak and of course when smart money start buying massively again.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Hedera (HBARUSD) is about to close its 1W candle below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 11 2024. This is a huge development as this has been its long-term Support, which even though it broke on 3 separate occasions in 2025, it ever closed a week below it and always recovered with a strong rally.
If this time it fails, then the Bear Cycle will be confirmed 100% (pretty much is) and will move on into its 2nd Phase, in a similar way as the 2021/22 Bear Cycle did. As you can see, both Cycles are almost identical, with virtually indistinguishable 1W RSI Falling Wedge patterns (both starting after a 88.50 Resistance rejection).
They are both parts of a multi-year Triangle pattern, which in 2022 bottomed on its Higher Lows trend-line on the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level (also just above the 2.0 Fib extension measured from the second High). This time both Fibs are almost on the same level, which gives us a minimum Target for this Bear Cycle at 0.0530.
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$HBAR #hedera #HBARUSD #HBARUSDT #signals #hbar

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and as we've shown in previous posts, as long as it holds, this could initiate the first counter-trend rally of the Bear Cycle.
This 'last chance for camp Bulls' is further strengthened by the fact that the 3D RSI is displaying a similar pattern as the previous two Higher Low bottoms of the Bull Cycle in March - April 2025 and July - September 2024.
That is a Higher Lows 3D RSI Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. This time isn't exactly Lower Lows for the price but the 1W MA100 has taken this part. Still it is almost identical to the previous ones and can kick-start a rally. Whether buyers can translate that into a final Bull Cycle rally to keep the hopes of the Cycle up, it remains to be seen. Extensive multi-angle technical analysis shows that 'hopes' should be very high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) historically assumes the role of the long-term Resistance level during Bear Cycles.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals $BTC

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of turning its 1W Ichimoku Cloud from bullish (green) to bearish (red). It has been on a consecutive green state since October 23 2023.
This red flipping is a major development as relative to the previous BTC Bear Cycles, it has happened around the exact same stage that we are at right now. This technically confirms that we are already on the new Bear Cycle (something we've been talking about since September) and that the basic stages/ phases of it remain the same.
The high degree of symmetry is further shown by the fact that when this Ichimoku flip takes place, the price has historically been trading around 175 days (25 weeks) away from it (green circle), supported by the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). And that has always been the stage of a counter-trend rebound/ rally that targeted and was rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
The second remarkable display of symmetry is that following this Ichimoku red flip, the Bear Cycles bottomed around 105 days (15 weeks) after it (blue circles).
So what do the above data suggest for the market right now? That there is a short-term rally pending towards the 1D MA200 and that we may see the Bear Cycle bottoming around the end of September 2026.
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#BTC $BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

A month ago (November 13, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on Hyperliquid (HYPEUSD) after the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern turned into an obvious Channel Down, which easily hit our $30.00 Target:

Now we see some short-term relief before the next, larger drop as not only did the price make contact with the bottom (Lower Low trend-line) of the Channel Down, but also the 1D RSI is displaying the same kind of bottoming sequence it did on October 17.
Even though the resulting rebound/ Bullish Leg rose by +50.50%, even breaking above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this time the move might be limited by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) posing as a Resistance, even though the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is the standard long-term one during Bear Cycles.
In any event, our 'modest' short-term Target for this bounce is $33.00.
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#Hyperliquid $HYPE #hypeusdt #signals #hype #hypeusd