📊 Picture After the sweep into 115–116k, price hit supply and reversed - local uptrend is broken, clear ChoCH to the downside. Below 110k, a series of lower highs is forming - sellers hold the initiative. Nearest resistances: 109.5–110.0k, above that 111.5–112.3k and 114.0–115.0k. Nearest supports: 106.8–106.0k, then 105.2–104.5k and 102.5–101.0k (marked weak low).
💬 How to read it As long as we trade below 110k, the bias is short - bounces into 109.5–110.0k and 111.5–112.3k are spots to sell on reaction. Bulls need to reclaim and hold 110k, ideally 112.3k - only then downside inertia will fade. Longs only from confirmed buyer reaction at 106.8–106.0k or deeper 105.2–104.5k / 102.5–101.0k.
🕯 Scenarios 1) Reaction short Idea: bounce into 109.5–110.0k and rejection. Targets: 108.2 → 107.0 → 106.0–105.8. Stop: above 110.4. 2) Push short (breakdown) Idea: hold below 106.0k on strong volume. Targets: 105.2–104.5k → extension to 102.5–101.0k. Stop: after a reclaim and hold above 106.6. 3) Long from support Idea: buy on reaction at 105.2–104.5k or after a sweep of 102.5–101.0k with a fast reclaim. Targets: 106.8 → 108.5–109.5 → 111.5–112.3k. Stop: below the signal candle/structure low (kept within ~0.8–1.2% of entry). 4) Bullish upgrade Idea: breakout and hold above 112.3k with a retest from above. Targets: 114.0–115.0k → 116.0–116.5k. Stop: below 111.8.
📈 Tactics Work strictly from supply/demand zones - enter only after confirmation via reaction + volume. Scale out 30–40% at the first target, then trail the rest by structure with a moving stop. Don’t chase the first candle - wait for a level test and clear confirmation to keep execution clean and calm.
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