CZ Binance Square AMA Recap: Bitcoin $200K, Altcoin Season, Meme Coins, and Advice for Beginners
In a recent AMA livestream on Binance Square, Binance co-founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) shared wide-ranging views on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, altcoin season, meme coins, trading risks, and the evolving role of social platforms in crypto.Below is a full recap of the key takeaways.1. CZ Warns Against Launching Meme Coins Based on His X or Binance Square PostsCZ cautioned users against using social media posts from him or Yi He as justification to launch meme coins.He said such projects have an extremely low success rate, with unclear origins and high failure risk, and advised users not to assume endorsement based on casual mentions or posts.2. Beginners Should Start Small and Avoid FuturesCZ emphasized that crypto beginners should start with small capital, focusing on learning before scaling up.He strongly advised newcomers not to begin with futures or options, recommending gradual exposure instead of leverage-driven trading.3. Altcoin Season Is “Definitely Coming”According to CZ, altcoin season will arrive eventually, though the exact timing, duration, and which tokens will benefit remain unpredictable.He stressed that altcoin cycles are complex and cannot be precisely forecast.4. BNB Ecosystem Is Stable and Has Long-Term PotentialCZ described the BNB ecosystem as large, stable, and supported by many active builders.He expressed confidence in BNB’s long-term potential, highlighting continued development across the ecosystem.5. Prediction Markets Are Still Early and IlliquidOn prediction markets, CZ noted that the sector remains very early-stage, with few market makers.He said platforms like Polymarket reportedly rely on just one or two market makers, with most activity still centered on sports-related markets.6. Bitcoin Will Reach $200,000 — Timing Is the Only UnknownCZ reiterated a bold long-term view:Bitcoin will “definitely” reach $200,000, with uncertainty only around when, not if.He framed this as a conviction rather than a short-term prediction.7. Genuine Meme Coins Must Have Historical or Cultural MeaningCZ said truly valuable meme coins should have historical significance or strong narrative relevance.He estimated that over 90% of meme coins fail, warning early investors about high risk and stressing personal responsibility for investment decisions.8. Binance Square vs. X: Different FoundationsCZ explained that Binance Square and X operate on fundamentally different models.He expressed skepticism that X could easily enable crypto trading due to KYC challenges, noting that most Binance Square users have already completed identity verification.9. CZ Hopes Meme Coins Continue Growing — From a Builder’s PerspectiveWhile stating he no longer relies on meme coins to “get rich overnight,” CZ said he hopes meme coins continue gaining popularity.From a builder’s standpoint, he said his focus is on creating better, smoother tools for users rather than speculation.
Crypto is the only asset class in history to be built from the bottom up.
After years of being retail-led, the last 24 months have seen a massive influx of institutional capital. The corporate pool is deeper than it’s ever been.
进一步讲,在现在的市场环境下,用 agent 和 Memecoin 来启动项目,能够在极短的时间内让产品落地。让用户可以直接获得使用体验,这个过程中,agent 又能巧借 Memecoin 壮大社区的路线图,实现产品的快速迭代,并且这个迭代是低成本且快速的。严肃的 AI 协议不用再被沉重的旧共识框架束缚,打破牢笼,轻装上阵,用轻量化和高速迭代来对用户进行狂轰滥炸,当市场教育和传播充分进行后,再在此基础上,添砖加瓦,构建宏大愿景的基础设施。轻量化的 agent 覆盖着模棱两可的 Memecoin 面纱,社区文化和基本面不会再成为矛盾,一种新的资产发展路径在逐渐浮出水面,而这可能是未来新的 AI 协议选择的一条路径。
上述讨论回答了 AI agent 成为核心叙事的潜力。在 AI agent 能继续飞速成长的前提下,选择正确的生态就显得尤为重要。是 Base?还是 Solana?回答这个问题之前,不妨再看看市场中严肃的 agent 协议现状。
首先是 Arweave/AO:PermaDAO 提到:AO 采用了 Actor 模型进行设计,每个组件都是一个独立自主的代理,能够并行运算,这与 AI Agent 驱动的应用架构高度契合。AI 依赖于模型、算法和算力三个要素,AO 可以满足这样的高资源需求。AO 可为每个 agent 进程独立分配计算资源,有效消除计算性能瓶颈。
除此之外,Spectral 是为数不多立足 agent 的协议,文转代码和模型推理是它的开发方向。
再回顾当前市场中的一种 agent 代币,可以发现这些 agent 几乎没有用到链的基础设施。这是事实,因为行业内的所有模型,包括 agent,都是链下的。投喂数据是链下的,模型训练不是去中心化的,输出的信息也没有上链。这就是客观事实,因为 evm 链不支持 ai 和智能合约的结合,当然 base 和 solana 也不支持。明年可以期待 ao 的引入,是否可以让模型上链,并有着不错的表现。如果 ao 失败,可能模型上链需要等到以太坊多年后才会引入,至少 2030 年之前不会,或者其他的公链实现模型上链,但是如果 ao 这样的架构和历史资源储备都无法实现,模型上链对其他公链来讲可能更加困难。
目前 AI agent 代币,没有太多实际的用例,实际上,你很难说清楚 Base 和 Solana 上的 ai agent coin 和 ai Memecoin 有什么区别。尽管 agent 代币没有特别的用途,但是为什么我认为不应该将 ai agent coin 和 ai Memecoin 混淆?因为我认为当前是制造 AI agent 泡沫的阶段。
为什么讨论 Base 想和 Solana 竞争 AI agent 的主导公链地位?
Base 在这一轮牛市的上半场里,吸引了不少市场注意,在 Memecoin 的市场份额争夺中,Base 有着短暂亮眼的表现,例如$BRETT 和$DEGEN 等。但是依然输给了 Solana。我认为 AI agent 是 Base 下一个争夺的方向,并且目前已经有不少优势。
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@cz_binance
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