MzGee_11

🟡 Equities (Stocks)
• Expect choppy price action — small swings up/down as traders digest nuances in Powell’s tone.
• Headlines saying the pause is hawkish-leaning have already been reported, which can cause a mild dip in major indices or mixed breadth.
🟢 S&P 500 & Nasdaq
• If Powell leans dovish (future cuts likely): bounce/rally continuation.
• If he emphasizes stubborn inflation + no imminent cuts: pullback or flat/rotation in tech names.
Markets were already near all-time levels earlier today.
📉 U.S. Dollar (USD)
• Powell stressing higher-for-longer or inflationary risks → USD strengthens.
• Dovish hint → USD weakens.
📈 Treasuries / Yields
• If Powell sounds more cautious or hawkish → yields rise (bonds sell off).
• If Powell sounds dovish → yields fall (bonds buy).
This is a core immediate driver: yields often move before stocks on Fed tone.
💰 Bitcoin & Crypto
• Crypto action will follow broader risk sentiment:
Dovish hints → crypto upHawkish flavor → crypto down

Bitcoin and broader crypto were already showing strength earlier ahead of the Fed.🟤 Gold
• Hawkish Powell → gold might sell off as yields rise & dollar strengthens.
• Dovish Powell → gold could rally on lower yield/dollar reflex.
🕒
What Traders Are Watching Now
📌 Powell’s language on future rate cuts and inflation outlook is the real mover, not just the unchanged rate decision.
📌 Market implied probability of cuts is low, so any dovish hint is bullish-risk appetite.
📌 Political context & Powell’s confidence language adds extra sensitivity to markets today.
In Plain Terms — Next 10 Mins You’ll Likely See
1) Volatility spikes first — S&P/Nasdaq swings ±0.5–1% quickly after specific Powell quotes.
2) Bonds/Yields lead the move — yields moving up/down sets the tone for equities.
3) USD & gold react next based on hawkish/dovish tilt.#FedWatch

This is a comparison of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed's previous policymaking meeting in December.
Text removed from the December statement is in red with a horizontal line through the middle.
Text appearing for the first time in the new statement is in red and underlined.
Black text appears in both statements.

#FedWatch

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to take a break from a recent run of interest rate cuts, as the central bank navigates questions about its independence and awaits a new leader.
Meeting market expectations, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its key interest rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. The decision put a halt to three consecutive quarter percentage point reductions, billed as maintenance moves to guard against potential downturns in the labor market.
In voting to hold the line, the committee also upped its assessment of economic growth. It also eased its concerns about the labor market as compared to inflation.Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization," the post-meeting statement said. "Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
Importantly, the statement also erased a clause indicating that the committee saw a higher risk to a weakening labor market than heightened inflation. That would argue for a more patient approach to policy as officials see the Fed's dual goals of low inflation and full employment more in balance.
There was little in the way of guidance about what's coming next, with markets expecting the Fed to wait until at least June before adjusting its benchmark rate again."In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the statement said, repeating language inserted in December that markets saw as a shift away
Chair Jerome Powell has just two more meetings before his term at the helm ends, ending a tumultuous eight years at the Fed that has included a global pandemic, a steep recession and a seemingly endless series of battles against Trump.Most recently, the Justice Department has subpoenaed Powell over the extensive renovations at the Fed's headquarters in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, the president threatened on multiple occasions to fire Powell and in fact has moved to sack Governor Lisa Cook, a case that is now pending a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court.
Underscoring all of the tension has been a battle over the Fed's independence, or its ability to operate without political interference. In confirming the Justice Department probe, an unusually candid Powell attributed the threat to Trump's efforts to control monetary policy. Prior presidents also have criticized Fed decisions and tried to coerce policymakers into rate cuts, but none have been as aggressive or public about it as Trump.The Fed also has a challenging economic backdrop to navigate.
Growth as measured by the widest measure, gross domestic product, has been robust. The third quarter motored ahead at a 4.4% clip and the final three months of the year are tracking at a 5.4% rate, according to the Atlanta Fed.
At the same time, hiring is slow in the labor market amid a Trump administration crackdown on illegal immigration. However, layoffs also have been tame, with the trend for initial jobless claims running at its lowest level in two years.
Inflation, though, has proven more troublesome. While off its 40-year highs back in 2022, the rate is still running closer to 3% than the Fed's 2% goal, causing concern among some FOMC officials who either want rate cuts paused or eliminated until there's more evidence that price increases are easing.#FedWatch

Investors are rotating out of tech stocks and into other sectors of the market as the U.S. economy chugs along
Interest-rate cuts can act as a tailwind for stocks, but the market is showing it'll be "just fine" without them, one investment strategist said.
It's no secret that President Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The president has even tried to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook and opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an attempt to influence the central bank.
Yet as Trump publicly calls for lower rates, investors don't seem too hung up about whether or not they'll get another rate cut this week.
The Fed will convene on Tuesday and Wednesday at its Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, and will announce its interest-rate decision after the meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon. According to CME FedWatch, investors are 97% certain that the Fed will hold rates where they are - and they seem to be OK with that.
"I don't think the market needs a cut, and frankly, I think the market can be just fine without a cut for the early part of this year," Liz Thomas, head of investment strategy at SoFi, told MarketWatch.
Read more: The Fed is expected to stand pat this week. The big question is for how long?
The Fed started its current rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, and since then, investors have given a lot of weight to the possibility of future cuts. As a result, risk-on trades like high-growth tech stocks have been among the market's beneficiaries during this cycle.
But in 2026, we're already starting to see a shift in the stock market away from this trend.
Thomas said that expectations for more rate cuts later in the year aren't what's driving markets right now. As evidence, she pointed to growth sectors - like the tech sector - that have been lagging more cyclical sectors and value stocks for the past few months. Stocks in the energy, industrials and materials sectors have been the early winners of 2026. The small-cap Russell 2000 RUT has also raced ahead of the larger S&P 500 SPX.
"That's a very clear cyclicality signal, and it's not something that's tied to rate cuts or the expectation of looser monetary policy," Thomas said. "So I think investors are optimistic the broadening out in this market [will] continue, and for other sectors to pull some weight as far as returns go."
Investors are making moves based on the economy and earnings
This stock-market broadening has been made possible because the underlying U.S. economy has remained stable.
Investors have been getting more economic data to sink their teeth into, after the U.S. government shutdown resulted in a data drought last fall. Recent economic data has shown that the labor market hit a bit of a soft patch in 2025 but may be recovering, while inflation seems to be mostly under control and GDP growth has been solid.
While it might not be the strongest economy the country has seen, things seem stable. And when the economy is good, it has a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats effect that benefits the cyclical parts of the stock market.
This has manifested in corporate earnings reports. Right now, investors might care more about the quality of earnings than the number of rate cuts expected in 2026.
Large-cap tech names, including the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, drove a lot of the earnings growth in 2024 and 2025. However, the professionals on Wall Street think that the pace of earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 will catch up to those seven stocks this year.
This will be put to the test in the coming days. Half of the Magnificent Seven stocks are reporting earnings this week - with Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA )reporting earnings on Wednesday, Jan. 28, and Apple (AAPL) reporting on Thursday, Jan. 29.
These large tech companies still make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, so their earnings still matter for the index's day-to-day moves. But as nontech sectors catch up, it could result in a more durable market - one that is less reliant on the performance of those select stocks.
Analysts are sharing their earnings forecasts for the "Magnificent Seven" versus the rest of the S&P 500.
"The S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings by 15% this year and is currently priced around 22-times next year's earnings. We think that GDP growth could be a little better than expected, and valuations could expand modestly if profit margins surprise to the upside," Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, told MarketWatch.
Helfstein noted that almost all of the gains the S&P 500 saw last year came during earnings season, which points to a market that is more driven by fundamentals than interest rates. While he said that lower rates are certainly a tailwind, stocks can go higher without them.
"A lower cost of capital as rates comes down can help provide some extra juice, but that is not a precondition for markets to go higher," Helfstein said.
Why upcoming Fed meetings may matter less than you think
Investors may be more focused on earnings and the economy than rates when trying to figure out broader market themes. But that doesn't mean they won't be watching this week's Fed meeting - even if no rate cuts are expected.
"We expect an uneventful FOMC meeting on Jan. 28. There is little reason for the Fed to cut rates right now, especially after cuts at each of the last three meetings," Alex Guiliano, chief investment officer at Resonate Wealth Partners, told MarketWatch.
With the political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell increasing in recent weeks, investors may be wondering if he'll address the ongoing investigation during his Wednesday press conference. Guiliano said he expects Powell to tread carefully around that topic.
Powell's term as Fed chair is already supposed to end in May - so the investigation comes more as a parting shot as Powell decides whether to serve out his term as a Fed governor.
Trump is expected to pick a new Fed chair in the near future, and Wall Street anticipates that he will pick someone who is more willing to cut rates as the president wants.
Read: Warsh's chances of becoming Fed chair jump as Trump suggests he doesn't want Hassett in that job
"Stock-market volatility could come soon after the next Fed chair takes office midyear, as the market starts to get used to the tone and direction of a new chair," Guiliano said.
If Trump's new Fed chair is indeed inclined to cut rates further, this could result in a more dovish Fed starting this summer. Traders are starting to price this in, with fed funds futures pointing to a 59.4% chance for a rate cut in June. The prospect of future cuts could give the Fed all the more reason to pause during these next few meetings.
But even if the next few Fed meetings are uneventful, investors will still be watching, and markets will be reacting.
"The market has been trained to listen so closely and hang on to every word of Jerome Powell, as if it's going to answer all of our questions for the following 30 to 60 days," SoFi's Thomas told MarketWatch.
She said that all the Fed can really do is point to the data it's looking at, say what looks good and what's concerning, explain how that resulted in its rate-cut decision, and provide projections on where the economy is going. Thomas said she thinks there are other groups that provide economic projections that are just as accurate as the Fed - but because of the Fed's authority, investors give extra weight to the central bank.
This is backed up by historical data. Looking at the average intraday performance of the S&P 500 index on FOMC announcement days shows that the market swings wildly as soon as the Fed chair's press conference begins.
"I think that we do listen maybe too closely for some sort of indicator about what's going to happen in the market, and investors would be better served by tuning out some of that noise," Thomas said. "One of the things I say a lot is that the most dangerous time to trade is between 2 and 2:30 p.m. Eastern time on Fed days."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA traded 0.5% lower for the week ending Jan. 23, while the S&P 500 was down roughly 0.4% and Nasdaq Composite COMP fell less than 0.1%. It was the second down week in a row for the three indexes.
This coming week, investors will be watching to see what the Fed announces after its meeting concludes on Wednesday, and will also monitor earnings from several of the "Magnificent Seven" companies on Wednesday and Thursday.

#GOLD #XAUUSD continues to update historical highs. New 4967, bears appeared (profit-taking). The market has moved into correction, but the overall fundamental (geopolitical) background is still complex...Expectations of further easing of Fed policy remain the main factor supporting gold.Trump's reversal on Greenland temporarily improved sentiment, but did not stop the flow into defensive assets.Economy: GDP for the third quarter has been revised upward to 4.4%. Core PCE (inflation) rose to 2.8% y/y. Jobless claims (200,000) were better than expected.Despite strong indicators, the dollar is weakening amid the general trend of de-dollarization.
Today, preliminary PMI (business activity) data for key regions will be released.The figures may affect global sentiment, but are unlikely to change the main upward trend for gold.
Resistance levels: 4935, 4967, 5000
Support levels: 4900, 4888, 4870
The current correction is a distribution of the formed consolidation 4935 - 4967. In the context of the current movement, the market may test the key support area (liquidity zone) 4900 - 4888. I do not rule out a deep long squeeze (to 4870) before renewed interest in growth. In the current cycle, there is a possibility of a retest of 5000!

#BTCUSD #ETHUSD
Key points:
Digital Asset Treasury Companies deployed at least $49.7 billion in crypto in 2025, with nearly half of that buying concentrated in the third quarter.

DATCos collectively held about $134 billion in digital classes by early 2026, accounting for more than 5% of the circulating Bitcoin and Ethereum supply.
Stablecoins expanded to 10.37% of the $3 trillion crypto market in 2025, providing liquidity, even as ownership remained concentrated among treasury buyers.
Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCos) now control more than 5% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to CoinGecko's 2025 Annual Crypto Industry Report published last week.CoinGecko said that DATCos held about $134 billion worth of digital assets at the beginning of 2026. This was a 137.2% increase from the beginning of 2025, when DATCos held about $56.5 billion. Over 2025, these firms "deployed at least $49.7 billion to acquire over 5% of the total BTC and ETH supply, with nearly 50% of that buying activity concentrated in the third quarter itself .113 Firms Hold Bitcoin As Treasury AssetThere are 142 DATCos, among which 113 firms hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset, 15 hold Ethereum (ETH), and only 10 hold Solana (SOL).Major DATCos include Strategy (MSTR), which bought 221,877 Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025, amounting to 7,09,715 BTC holdings in total.Tesla (TSLA), which bought 1789 BTC METAPLANET (JPY) purchased 35,102 BTC, and Marathon Digital (MARA) bought 8357 BTC,Additionally the crypto holdings for DATCos like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Block(XYZ), along with several other firms, "totalled to $137.3 billion at the end of October 2025," said CoinGecko.While Ethereum and Solana acquisitions were smaller, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Forward Industries were two prominent industry leaders.The report described the growing footprint of DATCos as a structural shift and crypto market ownership, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum, where supply is fixed or issuance is limited. CoinGecko noted that treasury accumulation increased even during periods of price weakness in 2025, dropping to $5.8 billion, bringing down the share price of DATCos. Stable-coins Expand As Market LiquidityGrowsAlongside the rise of treasury buyers, CoinGecko said that stable-coins continue to expand their role in crypto markets. Stablecoins accounted for 10.37% of the $3 trillion total crypto market capitalization in 2025, rising to $311 billion in market value.