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Mr_Pain

Crypto learner | Market insights | Educational content | #BinanceFeed
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منشورات
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KITE Daily Breakout: Safer Retest Long vs Aggressive Continuation Play
On the daily chart for , things are heating up in a really interesting way right now — price is sitting around 0.1492 after that strong breakout spike pushed it all the way up to 0.1561, backed by what looks like solid buying pressure. The uptrend is clearly intact here, with price comfortably above the MA7 at 0.1267 and way above the MA25 at 0.1040, so the structure is bullish and the momentum feels legitimate rather than just a quick pump-and-dump wick. That said, we're right up near the top of this recent breakout move, so chasing it blindly from here isn't the smartest play — the cleaner, higher-probability longs tend to come on a healthy retest rather than FOMOing in at the highs.
I've got two solid rule-based long setups depending on how aggressive you're feeling. The safer, preferred one is the classic breakout retest: wait for price to pull back and hold that 0.143–0.145 zone — that's the previous breakout area and current consolidation pocket — ideally with a nice bullish daily or 4H candle showing rejection and buyers defending it. Entry would be right around 0.144–0.146 once it confirms the hold, with a stop-loss tucked below at 0.137 to give it some wick room without getting shaken out too easily. Targets stack up nicely: grab TP1 at 0.156 to lock in the initial move, TP2 at 0.165 as it builds steam, and if momentum really carries through, let a piece run toward 0.178–0.180. Invalidation is simple — if we close the daily below 0.143, the retest fails and it's probably heading lower, so cut it quick.
For the more aggressive continuation play, you're looking for a daily (or strong 4H) close above that 0.156 level with real volume conviction and no ugly wick rejection — that's the signal buyers are ready to push higher without much hesitation. Entry on the pullback or right after the close around 0.156–0.158, stop-loss tighter at 0.149 if you're feeling bold or safer back at 0.143 for more cushion. Profits the same idea: TP1 0.165, TP2 0.178, and stretch TP3 to 0.195–0.200 if it's running hot. Either way, since this thing's already extended after a sharp pump, keep risk super disciplined — no more than 1% per trade and definitely take partials off at TP1 to reduce exposure as it gets extended. This one's got nice upside potential if it holds structure, but respect the levels and don't force it — the market will tell you soon enough which path it's taking. If you let me know spot vs futures and whether you're leaning scalp or swing, I can tighten it down to one clean plan with entry/SL/TP dialed in.
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房子本质是一个金融产品,房价到底了吗?一个硬核公式揭穿房价什么时候才算真正到底
房价到底了吗?一个硬核公式揭穿真相:租售比超房贷利率才是抄底信号

当广州1000万的房子月租金仅1万元,当上海核心区房产租售回报率不足1.5%,当全国重点城市平均租金收益率刚摸到2.23%的门槛,无数购房者在问:房价的真正底部到底在哪里?

答案或许藏在一个最简单的金融逻辑里:房子本质是金融产品,赚钱效应才是抄底的核心动力。当租房赚的钱能超过房贷利率,买房才具备投资价值;若租售回报连贷款成本都覆盖不了,市场只会持续观望,所谓的“底部”不过是下跌途中的驿站。

一、核心公式:租售比>房贷利率,才是真正的底部信号

租售比(年租金÷房价总额)是衡量房产投资价值的底层指标,而房贷利率则是买房的核心成本。这两者的博弈,直接决定了楼市的供需逻辑:

• 当租售比<房贷利率:买房不如租房,持有房产意味着“每月亏钱”,投资者退场,刚需延迟入场,房价缺乏支撑;

• 当租售比>房贷利率:收租收益覆盖贷款成本后仍有盈余,房产回归“赚钱资产”属性,长线资金自然进场抄底,市场才会真正企稳。

以2026年最新房贷利率测算:当前全国首套商贷普遍执行3.05%-3.2%的利率,公积金贷款更是低至2.6%。这意味着,房产租售比至少要突破3%,才能让购房者实现“收租覆盖房贷”的基本平衡;若要形成明确的赚钱效应,租售比需达到4%-5%,这也是成熟市场的合理区间。

再看广州的案例:1000万房产月租金1万元,年租金12万,租售比仅1.2%,远低于3.2%的主流房贷利率。若租金保持不变,要达到5%的租售比(远超房贷利率),房价需跌至240万;即便按3.2%的利率平衡线计算,房价也需跌至375万——这意味着从高点下来要跌去62.5%。

二、历史印证:香港楼市的“抄底密码”从未失效

香港楼市35年的波动史,完美验证了这一公式的有效性。1997年泡沫顶点时,香港房产租售回报率仅4%,而房贷利率高达11.5%,租售比与利率的巨大剪刀差,直接引发了6年暴跌65%的崩盘。直到2003年,房价跌透后租售比升至5.4%,而房贷利率降至2.56%,“租售比>房贷利率”的信号出现,香港楼市才迎来真正的底部,随后开启长达16年的上涨周期。

2019年至今,香港房价再跌43%,背后仍是同样的逻辑:2019年租售比重回1:500(约2%),低于当时的房贷利率,市场持续调整;截至2025年底,租售比修复至4.5%-5.5%,房价才逐步企稳。这说明,无论市场如何演变,“租售比超房贷利率”都是穿越周期的硬指标。

反观当前内地市场,截至2025年11月,全国重点50城平均租售比仅2.23%,北京、上海更是徘徊在2%左右,深圳甚至不足1.8%。与3.05%-3.2%的房贷利率相比,仍有明显差距,这也解释了为何楼市调整仍在持续——资本从不做亏本买卖,在租售回报覆盖不了贷款成本前,抄底资金绝不会大规模入场。

三、误区澄清:租售比不是“伪指标”,而是底层逻辑

有人质疑“租售比越高跌幅越大”,认为这一指标毫无参考价值。但这种观点混淆了“因果关系”:并非租售比高导致房价下跌,而是房价下跌才让租售比被动提升。在房价上涨周期,投机情绪推高资产价格,租金因锚定居住需求难以同步上涨,租售比自然走低;而在下跌周期,房价跌幅远超租金跌幅(香港楼市历史上房价波幅是租金的1.6-2.5倍),租售比才逐步修复至合理水平。

那些认为“优质房产无需看租售比”的说法,本质上是对房产金融属性的误读。2016-2021年的两轮上涨周期中,核心板块优质房产率先上涨,但这背后是“租售比低→泡沫积累→政策调控→价格回调”的循环。当市场回归理性,无论多么优质的房产,最终都要接受租售比的检验——没有现金流支撑的资产,终究是空中楼阁。

四、结论:房价见底,还要等租售比的“最后一跃”

当前楼市的核心矛盾,不是政策不够宽松,也不是需求消失,而是房产的“赚钱效应”尚未形成。2026年房贷利率已降至历史低位,租金市场因刚需支撑保持平稳,这为租售比修复创造了绝佳条件,但距离真正的底部仍有距离。

对于购房者而言,与其猜测房价跌幅,不如紧盯两个关键数据:一是你所在城市的租售比,二是最新房贷利率。当你关注的楼盘出现“年租金÷房价>3.2%”的信号,且租金水平稳定、人口流入持续,那么楼市的底部可能已近在眼前;而在此之前,任何“抄底”都可能是对自己资金的不负责任。

资本永远是理性的,当租售回报能稳稳超过房贷利率,不用政策号召,抄底资金自然会涌入。这不是预言,而是金融市场的铁律——房价的真正底部,从来不是政策画出来的,而是租售比和房贷利率共同算出来的。
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