imtiaz712

The crypto market saw a small drop of 0.85% in the last 24 hours, going from $3.88 trillion to $3.85 trillion. This adds to a 2.4% loss over the past week, even though the market is still up 16% over the month. The dip follows a similar trend in stock markets, where investors are turning cautious and cashing out after recent gains.
What’s Causing the Pullback?
1. Fed Policy Concerns
Some U.S. Federal Reserve governors (appointed under Trump) are challenging Jerome Powell’s current interest rate approach. This uncertainty has made investors nervous, especially as the Fed’s next decision is due July 31. Markets now see a 68% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 83% last week.
2. New Crypto Tax in Indonesia
Starting August 1, Indonesia will raise its crypto tax for foreign sellers from 1% to 5%, prompting early sell-offs to avoid the higher tax.
3. Leverage Cooling Down
Around $30 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated in the past day, a 31% drop compared to the day before. Traders are becoming cautious as prices fail to break past resistance, and funding rates drop.
4. Technical Resistance
The total crypto market cap hit a yearly high of $3.98T on July 23, but couldn't hold it. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 73 also signaled the market was becoming overheated.
Deeper Look
Macro Concerns (Bearish):
The correlation between stocks and crypto hit 0.91, the highest since March, showing how tied crypto is to global economic moves. With rate cuts now less certain, many traders are stepping back until the Fed and Indonesian tax decisions are clearer.
Derivatives Reset (Neutral):
Perpetual futures open interest fell by 3.8% and spot trading volume also dipped. With funding rates cooling, leveraged traders closed positions, but no big crash followed. The balance between spot and derivatives markets is something to watch closely.
Bottom Line
After a strong rally in July, the recent dip seems like natural profit-taking, made worse by Fed uncertainty and Indonesia’s tax hike. Bitcoin dominance is now at 60.7%, a 3-month high, suggesting traders are moving funds to safer assets.
Now the big question:
Will $3.8T hold as support for the market?
If Bitcoin stays stable, altcoins might bounce back. But if macro fears keep growing, we could see more downside ahead.
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