Zaheer_Malik

While many are waiting for growth from the halving, Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX) points to a more powerful and fundamental factor. His analysis is simple: Bitcoin's fate is decided not on price charts, but in the offices of the Federal Reserve. The new growth cycle will be triggered by a wave of US dollar liquidity, and Hayes sees it arriving in 2026.
Why Did Bitcoin Lag in 2025? The Answer is an "Expensive" Dollar.
Hayes gives a clear explanation for BTC's weakness last year. While gold and stocks rose, Bitcoin struggled. The reason was the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): reducing its balance sheet and draining dollars from the system. In a liquidity deficit environment, capital flees the riskiest assets, and Bitcoin is still in that category for traditional funds.
The 2026 Pivot: The Fed as the Main Growth Driver.
Now, according to Hayes, the pendulum has swung. To support the economy, the Fed will be forced to halt QT and start pumping liquidity into the system again (expanding its balance sheet). Here's how this will trigger a rally:
Cheap Money: The money supply will increase, and the cost of borrowing will drop.
The Search for Yield: Institutions, sitting on piles of cheap dollars, will start looking for assets with maximum returns.
Rotation into Crypto: A portion of this giant flow will rush into the lagging, but fixed-supply, Bitcoin. This won't be mere speculation, but a macro-driven liquidity flow.
What Needs to Align?
A clear pivot in Fed policy toward easing.
An increase in bank lending to amplify the effect.
A rotation of capital from overbought assets (like AI stocks) into undervalued $BTC
Risks to the Scenario:
The plan could fail if:
Inflation reignites, preventing the Fed from easing policy.
An external macro shock occurs, causing panic.
Traditional markets continue to attract all the liquidity.
The Bottom Line: Hayes reminds us of a simple rule: crypto markets are part of the global system. When the money printer turns on, the hardest and most digital assets are the first to soar.
What do you think? Do you believe Bitcoin's fate in 2026 is decided by the Fed, not by halvings or ETF flows? Share your opinion in the comments!
#MarketRebound #BTC100kNext? #StrategyBTCPurchase #USDemocraticPartyBlueVault

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Renowned crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has released a long-term technical analysis of XRP, pointing to a possible massive upside move toward $27. The analysis is based on a strong alignment between Fibonacci extensions and a developing Elliott Wave structure on the weekly XRP/USD chart.
Instead of focusing on short-term price fluctuations, the chart highlights a large cup and handle pattern that has been forming over several years. XRP’s surge to its all-time high in July 2025 marked the completion of the cup. This was followed by a healthy and controlled pullback during the rest of 2025, forming the handle portion of the pattern.
Cup and Handle Confirms Wave 2 Completion
According to ChartNerd’s Elliott Wave labeling, XRP previously completed a macro Wave 1 advance and then entered a prolonged Wave 2 corrective phase. This corrective phase perfectly aligns with the handle formation seen on the chart.
During this consolidation, $XRP XRP respected several key Fibonacci retracement levels, including the 61.8% and 78.6% zones. A critical 88.7% retracement level near $1.84 is highlighted as a major invalidation point. Although XRP briefly dipped below this level multiple times, price quickly recovered—indicating strong demand and structural strength.

As XRP approaches the end of the handle, a confirmed breakout would signal the transition from Wave 2 into the powerful Wave 3 phase.
Wave 3 Targets Indicate Strong Upside Momentum
In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is typically the strongest and most explosive move. ChartNerd’s Fibonacci extension projections place the first major Wave 3 target at the 161.8% extension, around $5.59.
Additional upside targets appear near $7.17 and $13.45, derived from higher Fibonacci extensions such as the 261.8% level. Notably, the chart shows very limited resistance between the breakout zone and these price levels, suggesting that XRP could experience a rapid expansion if bullish momentum enters the market.
Wave 5 Projection Supports $27 Macro Target
Beyond Wave 3, the analysis extends into Wave 5, which represents the final impulse of the macro cycle. Fibonacci projections between 161.8% and 261.8% place potential long-term targets between $19 and $28, with $27 emerging as the upper macro target.
Between Wave 3 and Wave 5, a Wave 4 consolidation is expected, with retracement zones marked near $4.15 and $6.14. This phase may bring volatility, but according to the structure, it would not invalidate the broader bullish trend.
Final Thoughts
ChartNerd’s analysis presents a technically compelling bullish scenario for $XRP XRP. If the cup and handle breakout is confirmed, the transition into Wave 3 could mark the beginning of a powerful multi-year rally, potentially driving XRP into double-digit—and even $27+—territory.
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Current sentiment: Markets are bracing for the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which could trigger sharp moves in crypto — especially for major coins like Bitcoin.
What’s happening?
The CPI report, originally expected this week, may face delays due to ongoing government shutdown risks.
Investors and traders are growing cautious: Missing or delayed inflation data adds uncertainty to monetary-policy outlooks.
Crypto markets are seeing muted momentum — altcoins are lagging while Bitcoin holds relatively stronger.
🚨 Why it matters for crypto
Delayed data = higher uncertainty → Central-bank timing becomes unclear, which often hurts risk-assets like crypto.
High inflation print → Interest-rate hikes likely remain in play → Dollar strength & risk-asset weakness.
Low inflation print → Rate-cut hopes revived → Dollar weakens → Crypto flows pick up.
🎯 What to watch
Release timing: Any delay or rescheduling could create short-term volatility.
Actual CPI number vs market expectations: The deviation will drive immediate reactions.
Market reaction: Watch Bitcoin’s initial 30-minute move; it often sets the tone for altcoins.
Liquidity flows: Check for any sudden inflows into spot ETFs or large-cap crypto pools.
✅ Final take
Right now, the market is in a wait-and-watch mode. The key theme: “Prepare, don’t panic.”
If the CPI print comes in benign, a strong bounce could follow — especially for well-positioned assets. But if inflation surprises to the upside, risk-off could dominate.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.
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The countdown is on! ⏳ Latest data shows a 45% chance the U.S. government shutdown will officially end between Nov 12–15. Markets are reacting, crypto traders are watching, and uncertainty is fading… slowly but surely.

💡 Key Points:

40% chance it ended Nov 8–11 ✅

17% chance it drags beyond Nov 16 ❌

Trump called for a resolution, adding political pressure ⚡


📈 Traders, keep an eye on the ripple effects — this could shake stocks, crypto, and more!
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