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Die USA ziehen offiziell aus dem #WHO zurück.
Das US-Senat-Banking-Komitee priorisiert Wohnungsfragen; die Krypto-Gesetzgebung wird voraussichtlich bis Februar oder März verschoben.
GSR und Selini Capital schließen sich den #Fogo Investoren an.
#SagaEVM erleidet einen Sicherheitsvorfall; etwa 7 Millionen Dollar an On-Chain-Vermögenswerten werden gestohlen und nach Ethereum transferiert.
Der öffentliche Angebot von market Space sorgt für Kontroversen; das Team behält Dutzende Millionen Dollar in überzeichneten Mitteln, unter Berufung auf eine "weiche Obergrenze."

Crypto payment projects often register for a U.S. MSB in their early stages, but as operations scale, they must confront a core compliance truth: MSB is a federal AML registration (regulating fund compliance), while State MTL is a state-level money transmitter license (regulating the legal qualification to handle funds); the two are not an upgrade relationship. This article analyzes MTL trigger conditions, unavoidable scenarios, and cost constraints, providing a compliant path of “starting with MSB + phased MTL application” to help projects avoid the risk of operating without a license.

Introduction

 

Almost every crypto payment project registers for a U.S. MSB in its early stages. But once the project scales, a question inevitably arises: Is holding only an MSB still legally defensible? This question cannot be answered by “industry intuition”—it must be addressed by examining the regulatory structure itself.

First, let’s clarify a common misconception: MSB and State MTL are not an “upgrade relationship.”

 

Many projects view MSB and State MTL as “basic” and “premium” versions, but this is a classic misunderstanding.

 

MSB (Money Services Business) is a federal-level anti-money laundering (AML) registration system overseen by FinCEN. Its core focus is:

 

Whether you fulfill KYC/AML/sanctions screening obligations

Whether you pose money laundering or terrorist financing risks

 

State MTL (Money Transmitter License) is a state-level financial license that addresses more fundamental questions:

 

Are you qualified to engage in “money transmission” within the state?

Are you legally permitted to access, control, or transfer other people’s funds?

 

To summarize the difference in one sentence:

 

MSB checks if the money is clean; MTL checks if you are allowed to touch the money.

 

They operate on different regulatory dimensions, and there is no legal logic that allows an MSB to “cover” an MTL.

Why Many Projects “Run on MSB Alone” in the Early Stages

 

It is not because regulators are lenient, but because business models are deliberately designed to avoid triggering state laws. In projects we have advised, common early-stage compliance designs include:

 

Not directly serving U.S. natural persons

Not offering fiat on/off-ramps, only processing crypto assets

Not allowing fiat balances to accumulate within the platform

Not directly holding or controlling customer funds

Funds always flowing through licensed third-party channels or custodians

 

Under these conditions, the project typically does not constitute “money transmission” under state law, making MSB + internal controls viable for a period. However, it is important to emphasize: this is not an “exemption,” but simply that the trigger conditions have not yet been met.

The Real Core Question: What Exactly Triggers a State MTL?

 

From a legal practice perspective, determining whether a State MTL is required never depends on whether you call yourself a “payment platform,” but on your legal position in the fund flow chain. A highly operational test is:

 

Do you “transmit, control, or possess other people’s fiat or its equivalent” in your business?

 

Based on regulatory guidance across states, the following activities are highly likely to be deemed “money transmission”:

 

Directly providing fiat payment/receipt services to U.S. users

Allowing disposable fiat balances to form in user accounts

Treating stablecoins as “currency or currency substitutes”

Funds first entering your account before being transferred per your instructions

The platform having discretion over the path, timing, or recipient of funds

 

Once a combination of these elements exists, relying solely on an MSB becomes legally very weak.

Which Crypto Payment Scenarios Practically Cannot Avoid a State MTL?

 

Based on our experience, I usually advise projects in the following business models to seriously evaluate State MTL rather than “run first and see later”:

 

Crypto payment or exchange services targeting U.S. retail users

Integrated fiat ↔ stablecoin platforms

U.S.-issued or U.S.-used “U-Cards” or crypto cards

Customer funds “passing through” or staying within the platform’s system

Integrated structures combining payment + wallet + account systems

 

The logic is straightforward:

 

The more you look like a “bank-like” or “payment institution,” the less likely state regulators will treat you as a mere technical intermediary.

Why Many Projects Delay Applying for MTL Despite Knowing the Risks

 

The reasons are not complicated, but rooted in cost and practical constraints. The actual barriers to State MTL include:

 

Needing to apply in multiple states (no “one license for the whole country”)

High surety bond requirements

Ongoing capital and liquidity requirements

Local compliance officers, audits, annual filings

Potential state regulatory examinations at any time

 

Therefore, many projects adopt a phased strategy:

 

By designing the business structure to delay triggering state laws, outsourcing “money-touching” functions to licensed institutions, and treating MTL as a mid-to-late-stage capability-building goal.

 

However, it is important to be clear:

 

Regulatory attention often comes before you are “ready.”

A Very Useful Self-Check Question in Practice

 

When conducting risk assessments for projects, I often ask:

 

If a state regulator sent you a letter today, could you clearly state: “We do not access, control, or transmit customer funds”?

 

If you cannot answer this with certainty, the discussion is no longer about “whether to get an MTL,” but rather “when you will be deemed to be operating without a license.”

A More Realistic Compliance Path: Not an Either/Or, but Phased Design

 

A mature U.S. compliance path is usually not:

 

“Get an MSB and immediately apply for full MTL coverage.”

 

Instead, it involves:

 

Starting with an MSB

Designing the business model to avoid falling under state regulation initially

Gradually building internal controls, risk management, and compliance capabilities

Identifying which business lines constitute money transmission

Applying for MTLs state by state, business by business, and in a phased manner

 

From a legal perspective:

 

State MTL is not a “startup barrier,” but a reflection of business maturity.

Conclusion

 

I do not recommend that all crypto payment projects rush into State MTL at the very beginning—it is neither realistic nor necessarily required.

 

But I also do not advise assuming: “We will never need more than an MSB.”

 

MSB is the compliance foundation; MTL is the load-bearing structure.

 

When you need it is not a matter of subjective choice, but whether your business has stepped into the scope of state regulation.

 

If you are already seriously grappling with this question, it usually means your project is no longer in the “early hobby phase.”

〈Licensing Guide for Crypto Payment Enterprises: Choosing Between U.S. MSB and State MTL〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Both Ethereum and Solana show clear revenue inversion, with application-layer income surpassing mainnet fees, confirming a structural shift toward application-driven value capture across major blockchains.

Ethereum prioritizes security and cheap data availability over fee capture, while Solana enforces mainnet execution to reclaim value, reflecting two fundamentally different long-term blockchain strategies.

Stablecoins, regulatory exemptions, and AI agent payments emerge as major Alpha themes, favoring high-throughput settlement layers and infrastructure providers over narrative-driven or purely speculative crypto assets.

 A deep analysis of L1/L2 value capture shifts, comparing Ethereum and Solana strategies, and exploring how applications, stablecoins, and AI payments reshape crypto power dynamics.

Previous reading

 

2.3 Power transfer in the L1/L2 value chain

 

This section is also a significant part of the G research report, arguably containing the most core viewpoints, and it also elaborates on the SOL analysis.

 

The viewpoint is similar to the ETH identity crisis mentioned in the previous analysis of the Messari research report.

 

The difference lies in the fact that G discusses application-layer revenue exceeding that of public chains from SOL’s perspective, while the latter considers how ETH should reclaim its value from ETH’s perspective.

 

First, let’s look at three data points related to SOL.

 

Revenue Inversion: June 2024 was a watershed moment, as revenue generated by Solana application layers (such as Pump.fun and Jito) surpassed the gas fee revenue of the public chain itself for the first time. By the end of 2025, this ratio had reached 3.5:1.

Real Economic Value (REV): By 2025, Solana applications had generated over $4 billion in cumulative revenue.

ETF Inflows Diverge: In November 2025, during a market correction, the Solana ETF still recorded a net inflow of $420 million, indicating that institutional funds are shifting from “speculative” to “asset allocation.”

 

Next, let’s look at the ETH data.

 

Revenue Inversion Ratio: In the first quarter of 2025, total transaction fees generated by Ethereum on-chain applications (such as Uniswap, Lido, and Aave) were approximately $1.01 billion, while the revenue captured by the Ethereum mainnet (L1) was only about one-fifth of the application revenue.

L1 Revenue Shrinks: With the adoption of EIP-4844 (Blob Space) and L2 scaling solutions, the average transaction fee for Ethereum L1 has decreased by more than 95%. This has caused L1 fee revenue to plummet from 40% of the total chain revenue in 2021 to less than 3% currently.

 

The data above clearly demonstrates that, for both SOL and ETH, applications are more effective at generating revenue than public blockchains, supporting the theory of “application-layer power grab.”

 

However, from the perspective of M’s research report, he explored whether Ethereum is becoming a “settlement dump” for L2, and predicted that by 2026 Ethereum must reclaim value capture at the execution layer through mainnet sharding or other major upgrades.

 

Messari argues that Ethereum is becoming a “cheap liquidation layer.” Due to the extremely low L2 fees, the gas fees captured by the Ethereum mainnet have drastically decreased, making it impossible for ETH to maintain its “deflationary” narrative.

 

If ETH wins: it means L2 will reinvest its profits back into the mainnet, or applications will remain on the mainnet and pay hefty “protection fees.”

 

If the application layer wins (Galaxy’s perspective): Applications (such as Uniswap) will retain all the gas fees and MEV rewards originally allocated to Ethereum within their own token (UNI) by building their own chain (Unichain) or using an application chain.

 

This is a zero-sum game. If the “application-layer power grab” succeeds, the logic of Ethereum as a value anchor will collapse, and ETH will become a mere “securities” or “collateral,” rather than “fuel for the world’s computers.”

 

M’s stance in the report is based on how the ETH team can reclaim value.

 

However, after reviewing some of Vitalik Buterin’s public statements from earlier this year, I believe that some of M’s predictions will not come true.

 

The reason is that the ETH team’s “self-rescue” method is not to steal money from applications, but to continue making ETH cheaper.

 

How should we understand this?

 

In several presentations in early 2026, Vitalik Buterin mentioned that Ethereum’s ultimate value lies not in how much gas fees it collects, but in how much “indestructible value” it carries (censorship resistance, ultimate security).

 

Ethereum’s focus in 2026 will be on advancing the full integration of PeerDAS and zkEVM (i.e., the “Glamsterdam” and “Hegota” upgrades), with the goal of making Ethereum the cheapest and most secure data availability (DA) layer.

 

In other words, faced with the issue of application layers taking away value, Vitalik Buterin’s team chose not to compete with them for money, but instead to continue making Ethereum more secure and cheaper, attracting more applications to deploy on Ethereum.

 

Prepare the soil so that the seeds can take root, instead of competing with the seeds for nutrients.

 

This can be interpreted as the Ethereum team abandoning the idea of ​​being a “profitable commercial company” and instead creating a “constitution for global digital territory.”

 

However, this shift in market dynamics is unfriendly to retail investors (prices rise more slowly), but beneficial to institutional investors.

 

But Solana’s logic is completely different.

 

Anatoly believes that public blockchains should be like Nasdaq, not only fast but also directly capturing the value of every transaction.

 

He opposes pushing applications to L2, advocating that all business operations occur on the mainnet, so that every successful transaction directly translates into demand and cost capture for SOL.

 

So although the current situation is that application revenue on SOL has surpassed mainnet revenue, the SOL team has been preparing to reclaim value since 2025.

 

First, in early 2025, SOL allocated 100% of the priority fee to validators (previously, 50% was destroyed and 50% went to validators).

 

Following this, the programmatically distributed these recovered “priority fees” to SOL stakers automatically.

 

Now, in 2026, the plan is to upgrade Alpenglow to achieve a settlement speed of 100ms.

 

The higher the performance, the more dependent the application is on the public blockchain, making it easier to collect “public blockchain taxes,” and thus ensuring that applications obediently hand over their money to SOL.

 

Therefore, based on the above, we can see that Solana and Ethereum are taking two different paths. The reason why Solana dares to engage in such aggressive fundraising is mainly because all applications on Solana are on the same ledger.

 

SOL insists that the mainnet is the execution layer.

 

It lacks the concept of L2 (although it has sidechains, they are not mainstream); all transactions, slippage, and MEV (miner bribery) occur on the mainnet.

 

Therefore, this is a fatal attraction for AI payments and high-frequency payment applications. However, Ethereum has too many L2 and sidechains, and deploying them there would face too much cross-chain friction, which is too painful.

 

Dimension

Ethereum (ETH)

Solana (SOL)

power center

Distributed across various applications and L2

Highly concentrated on L1 validator nodes

Value capture

Passive (awaiting application feedback/destruction)

Active (directly allocating priority fees through the protocol layer)

Core advantages

Ultimate security and censorship resistance

Ultimate combination and transaction speed

2026 Status

Identity crisis, searching for a new narrative

Nasdaq-ization, closed-loop business model

 

The prediction of SOL’s price in G’s research report is based on this, but if SOL wants to regain its value in 2026, it will definitely face competition and challenges at the application layer.

 

For example, the previous Jito

 

A related question is, if SOL regains its revenue, will it squeeze the value of applications on SOL? What should be considered when determining the outcome of their power struggle? These are also points worth paying attention to.

Dimension

Key to victory or defeat

Conclusion Prediction

Liquidity and viscosity

Has the “atomic combinability” been broken?

Public blockchains have a greater chance of winning. If application migration leads to the inability to interlock with other DApps in real time, applications will be hesitant to migrate.

User ownership

Are users drawn to “Jup” or “Solana”?

With the increasing popularity of native apps like Jupiter Mobile V3, if users only recognize app entry points, apps will have bargaining power in negotiating with public blockchains (reducing public blockchain fees).

 

In 2025, Solana’s on-chain fee revenue exceeded $600 million (some institutions even estimated its total revenue at $1.4 billion), and its application revenue is highly correlated with public chain revenue because Solana tends to keep its business within a “single segment” of the mainnet.

 

However, it’s important to note that this value grab in SOL will not change the prediction that G’s application revenue to network revenue ratio will double by 2026.

 

The current logic is to expand the market; SOL is the “marketplace,” and applications are the “stores.”

 

This is equivalent to the shopping mall announcing: “From now on, all queuing fees for in-store shopping will belong to the mall management.” While stores like Jupiter (JUP) have their “queue tax” taken by the mall, data from early 2026 shows that the total revenue from the Solana application is approximately 3.5 times that of the mainnet revenue.

 

2.4 Stablecoins, Regulatory Exemptions, and AI Collaboration

 

The key points of G’s research report are in the first three chapters, which I’ve discussed in detail. I’ll just put the last two chapters together.

 

I’ve mentioned many of these points in previous disassembly and analysis reports, so I won’t go into detail. I’ll just give a brief overview and list some relevant stocks.

 

2.4.1 Stablecoins

 

Key takeaways: Stablecoin trading volume may surpass that of the US ACH settlement system in 2026, and the market will eventually consolidate, resulting in a very small number of winners.

 

Predicted Highlights: At least one Fortune 500 company will launch an enterprise-grade public blockchain with a daily settlement volume exceeding $1 billion.

 

Alpha opportunity:

 

Focus on payment-level L2

 

As stablecoins become a mainstream payment method, underlying protocols capable of handling massive amounts of small, high-frequency transactions (such as Solana’s PayFi plugin or dedicated chains supported by PayPal/Visa) will capture substantial settlement tax revenue.

 

Finding “technology providers” for these enterprise-grade public blockchains

 

For example, protocols that provide modular architectures for these large companies (such as Optimism’s OP Stack or Arbitrum Orbit).

 

2.4.2 Regulatory Exemption

 

According to the latest SEC guidance in January 2026 (driven by Chairman Paul Atkins), “Project Crypto” was officially launched.

 

Exemption Logic: As long as a project can prove its “degree of decentralization” or “business authenticity,” it can obtain a registration exemption period of 12-24 months.

 

Investing in Alpha:

 

Prior to RWA (Real-World Assets) 2.0, only government bonds were tokenized (such as ONDO). Now, private equity, private lending, and even prime real estate can enter DeFi under an exemption framework.

 

2.4.3 AI Agent Payment:

 

Investing in Alpha:

 

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): It is not only a platform for publishing AI agents, but also a “clearing layer” for these agent transactions.

 

Wayfinder / ai16z: Focus on these routing protocols that allow AI agents to freely transfer funds between different applications.

 

3. SUMMARY

 

To date, I have analyzed three top research reports from Messari, Bitwise, and Galxy, and I also took the time to write research reports on gold and BTC.

 

The problem is that these research reports are all backed by European and American institutions, which naturally focus on markets like SOL. Companies like BSC are basically absent from these reports.

 

In other words, our current perspective is still missing fragments of maps of the East. This aspect cannot be ignored, but I don’t have the energy to conduct more detailed research.

 

Since I’m also active in the Chinese-speaking community, I think it’s worth keeping an eye on BNB Greenfield’s storage tokenization project within the BSC ecosystem.

 

When AI requires massive amounts of inexpensive storage, BSC-based storage tokens are more “commercially integrated” than storage protocols on Solana.

 

For TON, you might want to keep an eye on ecosystem funds like ATON, which are listed on Nasdaq.

 

In early 2026, it invested $46 million to build an AI computing cluster, directly connecting to Telegram traffic.

 

I’ll go back and organize the Alpha opportunities mentioned in this month’s research, using my limited energy and capital to filter out the most cost-effective targets.

 

Then I’ll build an on-chain fund monitoring tool to help me find a good entry point.

 

The first step, finding targets, is now nearing completion.

 

The next step is to find the right entry point so that I can enter the market on the eve of a breakout and maximize the use of my capital.

 

The above viewpoints are referenced from Ace

 

Research Report Series：

Messari 2026 Crypto Theses: Why Speculation Is No Longer Enough (Part 1)

Bitwise: Why Crypto Is Moving Beyond the Four-Year Cycle

Why Gold Is Surging: Central Banks, Sanctions, and Trust-1

〈Galaxy Research 2026: Bitcoin, Solana, and Value Capture-2〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Die Prognosen von Galaxy zeichnen sich durch eine hohe Genauigkeit bei makroökonomischen Trends aus, überschätzen jedoch die Preise und bieten wertvolle richtungsweisende Einblicke, während sie die Investoren daran erinnern, die Hauptziele zu berücksichtigen und sich auf strukturelle Veränderungen zu konzentrieren.

Ein wichtiges Thema im Jahr 2026 ist der Übergang von narrativ gesteuertem Krypto zu realen Unternehmensbewertungen, wobei Anwendungen und Stablecoins mehr Wert erfassen als die zugrunde liegenden Netzwerke.

Solana ist als der Kern des On-Chain-Kapitalmarktes positioniert, wo Meme-Spekulationen nachlassen, institutionelle Beteiligungen zunehmen und ertragsgestützte Projekte die bevorzugten risikoadjustierten Chancen werden.

Der Anstieg von River spiegelt eine strukturelle Neubewertung wider, die mit seiner Rolle als plattformunabhängige Stablecoin-Liquiditätsschicht verbunden ist, verstärkt durch die Integration mit dem dominierenden USDT-Abrechnungssystem von TRON.



Die Positionierung der Derivate hat die Rallye verstärkt, wobei außergewöhnlich hohe Finanzierungssätze auf Short-Squeeze-Dynamiken hindeuten, anstatt auf rein organische Spotnachfrage.



Ob River seine Bewertung aufrechterhalten kann, hängt weniger von kurzfristigem Preistrend ab und mehr von der Akzeptanz, den Dynamiken des Token-Angebots und der Umsetzung seiner Vision für die plattformübergreifende Infrastruktur.

Vorhersagemärkte wie Polymarket preisten eine Deeskalation vor offiziellen Ankündigungen ein und verstärkten damit ihre wachsende Rolle als frühe Indikatoren für politische Risiken für die Finanzmärkte.



Während die US-Aktienmärkte eine scharfe Erleichterungsrallye bei reduzierter Handelsunsicherheit inszenierten, reagierten Bitcoin und breitere Krypto-Assets vorsichtig und spiegelten eine strukturelle Empfindlichkeit gegenüber Liquidität und Kapitalflüssen wider, anstatt nur auf Schlagzeilen zu reagieren.



Anhaltend ängstliche Stimmungslagen und fortgesetzte Spot-ETF-Abflüsse deuten darauf hin, dass sich die makroökonomische Erleichterung in den Kryptomärkten stabilisiert hat, aber noch nicht die Bedingungen für einen nachhaltigen Aufschwung geschaffen hat.

#Trump wird seinen Kandidaten für den Vorsitz der Fed während des Davos-Forums nicht bekannt geben.
#Coinbase CEO: Der Gouverneur der französischen Zentralbank missversteht Bitcoin; Bitcoin ist unabhängiger.
#Solana Das Policy Institute fordert den Schutz von Softwareentwicklern und erklärt, dass "der Fall Roman Storm kein Einzelfall ist."
Vitalik schlägt "natives DVT-Staking" vor, um die Sicherheit und Dezentralisierung von Ethereum zu verbessern.
Bloomberg: #Bitcoin Der Spread zwischen Futures- und Spotpreisen verengt sich, was das Ende der Arbitrage-Ära an der Wall Street markiert.
#CoinRank

A Prediction Market uses blockchain and financial incentives to convert collective beliefs into real-time, tradable probability signals.

 

Outcome tokens, smart contracts, and market pricing enable transparent, trustless forecasting without centralized intermediaries.

 

While powerful for price discovery, Prediction Markets still face risks from liquidity limits, regulation, and information asymmetry.

A crypto Prediction Market lets users trade on future event outcomes using blockchain, smart contracts, and market pricing to turn collective expectations into real-time probabilities.

 

WHAT IS PREDICTION MARKET?

 

A crypto Prediction Market is a decentralized platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of future events using blockchain technology. Instead of relying on traditional betting systems or centralized bookmakers, a Prediction Market uses cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, and market-driven pricing to reflect real-time probabilities of specific outcomes.

 

As the Web3 ecosystem continues to evolve, crypto Prediction Market platforms have become increasingly popular tools for forecasting a wide range of events, including elections, sports competitions, financial indicators, and trends within the cryptocurrency market itself.

📌 How Prediction Markets Harness Collective Intelligence

 

At its core, a Prediction Market combines financial incentives with collective intelligence. Participants are encouraged to express their expectations by committing capital, not merely opinions. When thousands of users trade based on their individual insights, information, and risk assessments, the resulting market price aggregates these views into a single probability signal.

 

Rather than counting votes, a Prediction Market weights opinions by conviction and capital at risk. This mechanism allows prices to represent what the market collectively believes is the most likely outcome, making prediction markets a powerful information-discovery tool.

📌 How Prices Represent Probabilities in a Prediction Market

 

For example, consider a Prediction Market asking: “Will Bitcoin exceed $200,000 in 2026?” This market would typically issue two outcome tokens: “Yes” and “No.”

 

If the “Yes” token is trading at 0.60, the market is effectively pricing a 60% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $200,000 by that time. This price does not guarantee the outcome—it simply reflects the market’s aggregated expectation based on current information and participant behavior.

This pricing mechanism is what allows a Prediction Market to translate subjective beliefs into quantifiable probabilities.

 

(source: kalshi.com)

📌 Why Blockchain Is Essential for Prediction Markets

 

Blockchain technology provides the foundation that makes a crypto Prediction Market transparent, secure, and globally accessible. All transactions are recorded on-chain, smart contracts enforce settlement rules automatically, and users from around the world can participate without relying on trusted intermediaries.

 

These properties significantly reduce trust assumptions and centralized risks, while increasing market openness and credibility. As a result, crypto Prediction Market platforms are often viewed as one of the most direct Web3 applications for aligning information, capital, and consensus within a single system.

📌 Key Advantages of Crypto Prediction Markets

 

Crypto Prediction Market platforms offer several distinct advantages over traditional forecasting or betting systems, largely due to their decentralized and incentive-driven design.

 

▶ Decentralization

A core strength of a crypto Prediction Market is its decentralized structure. There is no central authority controlling the market or managing payouts. All trades, fund custody, and settlements are executed on-chain through smart contracts, ensuring transparency and reducing reliance on trusted intermediaries.

 

▶ Real-Time Forecasting

In a Prediction Market, prices adjust immediately as new information enters the market. When participants react to news, data releases, or shifting expectations, outcome token prices update in real time. This allows the market to function as a continuously evolving probability signal rather than a static forecast.

 

▶ Higher Predictive Accuracy

Financial incentives play a critical role in improving accuracy within a Prediction Market. Because participants risk capital on their beliefs, they are motivated to make informed decisions rather than random guesses. Over time, this mechanism helps filter noise and reward well-reasoned predictions.

 

▶ Global Accessibility

Crypto Prediction Market platforms are accessible to users worldwide. Participation is not restricted by geography, institutional status, or traditional financial infrastructure. As long as users can access the blockchain and hold crypto assets, they can take part—making prediction markets open, inclusive, and globally representative.

 

>>> More to read: What is Polymarket? Web3 Prediction Market

HOW CRYPTO PREDICTION MARKETS WORK

 

From a structural perspective, a crypto Prediction Market operates entirely on-chain. Each event is broken down into a set of possible outcomes, and each outcome is represented by a token. Users buy and sell these outcome tokens based on what they believe will happen.

 

Once the event concludes and the result becomes verifiable, smart contracts automatically handle settlement. Participants holding tokens tied to the correct outcome receive payouts according to predefined rules, without the need for manual intervention or centralized control.

 

A crypto Prediction Market operates through a combination of outcome tokens, trading mechanisms, smart contracts, and automated settlement. Together, these components allow markets to transform uncertainty into real-time, tradable probabilities.

🪙 Outcome Tokens

 

In a Prediction Market, each event is divided into multiple possible outcomes, and every outcome is represented by a dedicated token. Users purchase the token corresponding to the result they believe will occur.

 

If the outcome tied to a token is correct once the event concludes, that token can be redeemed for its full value. Tokens associated with incorrect outcomes become worthless after settlement. This structure ensures that market participants are financially incentivized to price outcomes accurately.

✏️ Trading Mechanisms

 

Outcome tokens in a Prediction Market can be traded using several common market structures, including:

 

Automated Market Makers (AMMs)

Liquidity pools

Order book–based systems

 

Regardless of the mechanism, prices continuously adjust based on supply and demand. As traders enter and exit positions, token prices fluctuate in real time—effectively turning the Prediction Market into a live probability indicator for the event in question.

📜 Smart Contracts

 

Smart contracts form the backbone of every crypto Prediction Market. They handle the creation of markets, the issuance and exchange of outcome tokens, and the final settlement process.

 

By encoding rules directly into code, smart contracts remove the need for intermediaries and ensure that market operations remain transparent, automated, and trustless. Participants do not need to rely on a central authority to enforce payouts or manage funds.

📈 Market Settlement

 

When an event concludes, verified data sources are used to determine the final outcome. Once the result is confirmed, smart contracts immediately execute settlement and distribute payouts to holders of the correct outcome tokens.

 

This automated settlement process ensures speed, accuracy, and fairness—key characteristics that distinguish a blockchain-based Prediction Market from traditional, centralized alternatives.

 

>>> More to read: What is Kalshi Prediction Market? How Does It Work

EVENT TYPES TRADED IN CRYPTO PREDICTION MARKETS

 

A crypto Prediction Market supports a wide range of event categories, allowing users to trade on outcomes across many real-world and digital domains. This diversity is one of the reasons Prediction Market platforms attract both casual participants and professional forecasters.

 

(source: polymarket.com)

 

🚩 The most common event types include:

 

Elections and political events

Sports competition outcomes

Cryptocurrency price movements and broader market trends

Macroeconomic events

Celebrity-related and cultural news

Technology product launches

 

By covering both high-impact global events and everyday news topics, a Prediction Market offers opportunities for users with different expertise, interests, and risk preferences. This broad event coverage helps maintain active participation and improves the overall quality of market-based predictions.

 

>>> More to read: What Is a Prediction Market: How Markets Turn Uncertainty Into Usable Knowledge

CRYPTO PREDICTION MARKETS BENEFITS & RISKS

 

Compared with traditional online betting platforms, blockchain technology introduces meaningful improvements to how a Prediction Market operates, particularly in terms of transparency, efficiency, and security.

 

✅ Transparent Settlement

In a blockchain-based Prediction Market, smart contracts handle settlement automatically once an outcome is verified. This ensures that results are resolved fairly and immediately, without manual intervention or discretionary decisions from a central operator.

 

✅ Lower Fees

By eliminating intermediaries, a crypto Prediction Market significantly reduces operational overhead. Fewer middlemen mean lower fees for participants, allowing more value to flow directly between traders rather than being absorbed by platform costs.

 

✅ Security and Data Integrity

All transactions in a Prediction Market are recorded on-chain, creating a transparent and immutable transaction history. This makes it far more difficult to manipulate outcomes or alter records, strengthening trust in the integrity of the market.

 

✅ Interoperability

Outcome tokens issued by a Prediction Market are not confined to a single platform. They can be held in wallets, integrated into applications, or even used within DeFi protocols, increasing flexibility and expanding potential use cases beyond simple event settlement.

❗Incorrect Predictions

If a prediction turns out to be wrong, participants will lose the capital committed to that outcome. A Prediction Market rewards accuracy, not participation, and losses are a natural part of the system.

 

❗Low Liquidity

Smaller or less active Prediction Market events may suffer from limited liquidity. In such cases, prices can be more volatile and potentially more vulnerable to manipulation.

 

❗Regulatory Uncertainty

The legal status of Prediction Market platforms varies by jurisdiction. In some regions, regulations remain unclear or are still evolving, which may affect platform availability or user access.

 

❗Smart Contract Vulnerabilities

Participants in a crypto Prediction Market ultimately rely on the security of the underlying code. Bugs or vulnerabilities in smart contracts could lead to unexpected losses or operational issues.

 

>>> More to read: How does polymarket work: a complete guide to prediction markets

CONCLUSION: THE FUTURE OF PREDICTION MARKETS

 

A crypto Prediction Market is fundamentally a decentralized system that allows users to trade on the outcomes of future events. By combining market-based incentives with blockchain technology, Prediction Market platforms enable transparent settlement while transforming dispersed opinions into measurable probability signals.

 

As the Web3 ecosystem continues to evolve, Prediction Market platforms have moved beyond their early experimental phase. They are increasingly becoming an important component of both crypto-native markets and the broader financial landscape. Their ability to reflect expectations in real time gives them a unique role in price discovery and forecasting.

 

That said, challenges remain. Information asymmetry, the risk of insider behavior, and regulatory uncertainty continue to shape the industry’s development. However, as adoption grows and regulatory frameworks mature, Prediction Market platforms are likely to operate within more structured and balanced market environments.

 

In the long run, Prediction Market may emerge as one of the most influential applications in the crypto ecosystem—one that most clearly demonstrates how markets can aggregate information, capital, and collective expectations into a single, transparent system.

PREDICTION MARKET FAQ

 

🔍 What is a prediction market?

 

A Prediction Market is a market that allows participants to trade on the probability of future events. By taking positions on outcomes that have not yet occurred, participants can profit if their predictions prove correct. Market prices are often interpreted as the collective probability assigned to a specific outcome.

🔍 Why do prediction markets suffer from information asymmetry?

 

The core mechanism of a Prediction Market relies on participant forecasts, which are influenced by access to information. Some participants may benefit from earlier or more detailed information, allowing them to gain an advantage over others. This dynamic can place less-informed participants at a disadvantage, resulting in information asymmetry within the market.

🔍 How are prediction markets regulated?

 

The regulatory status of Prediction Market platforms remains unclear and inconsistent across jurisdictions. In some countries, prediction markets are subject to strict financial regulations, while in others they operate in regulatory gray areas with limited oversight. This lack of uniform regulation continues to shape how prediction markets evolve globally.

 

 

 

 

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〈What is Crypto Prediction Market? A Beginner’s Guide〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Chiliz nutzt Blockchain und Fan-Token, um zu verändern, wie Sportteams mit ihren globalen Fanbasen interagieren, regieren und sie monetarisieren.



CHZ fungiert als das zentrale Dienstprogramm-Token für Zahlungen, Staking, Governance und Anreize im Ökosystem über die Chiliz Chain.



Tokenomics-Upgrades wie der Pepper8-Hard Fork zielen darauf ab, die langfristige Nachhaltigkeit, das Wachstum von DeFi und die Expansion des Ökosystems zu unterstützen.

Chiliz ist ein Web3-Sportökosystem, das von CHZ betrieben wird und Fan-Token, On-Chain-Governance und digitalen Besitz ermöglicht, der Sportteams mit globalen Fan-Communities verbindet.

Ehemalige #Alameda-CEO Caroline Ellison wird heute aus dem Gefängnis entlassen.
#Bessant : Keine Sorge über einen Verkaufsdruck auf US-Staatsanleihen; japanische Gegenstücke werden einspringen.
#Vitalik : Vollständige Rückkehr zu dezentralen sozialen Netzwerken im Jahr 2026.
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#CoinRank

The MEMES rally was primarily sentiment-driven, sparked by social amplification rather than fundamentals, with on-chain data showing rapid wallet churn and high turnover instead of sustained accumulation.

 

Incentive structures such as the BNB Chain USD1 trading competition significantly magnified trading volume and visibility, converting short-term attention into measurable on-chain activity.

 

The episode highlights a structural feature of meme markets in 2026, where attention functions as liquidity and price discovery is driven by reflexive coordination rather than long-term value creation.

A single repost triggered a speculative surge on BNB Chain as the MEMES token soared over 280× intraday, illustrating how social signals, on-chain incentives, and shallow liquidity can rapidly turn attention into extreme volatility.

 

THE SPARK

 

On January 21, a little-noticed meme token called MEMES on the BNB Chain became the center of one of the most extreme short-term rallies seen in recent months, after a repost by He Yi, combined with a rare and widely circulated White House social media post referencing “memes,” abruptly pushed the asset from obscurity into global crypto discourse, triggering a rapid influx of speculative capital that sent its price surging by more than 280× intraday and briefly lifted its market capitalization above $18 million, according to real-time tracking data from GMGN and BNB Chain explorers.

 

On-chain records show that MEMES was deployed and primarily traded on BNB Chain, with its liquidity concentrated in pools indexed by GMGN and visible on BscScan, and within hours of the repost its 24-hour trading volume expanded to approximately $37.9 million, a figure that far exceeded its early liquidity base and underscored how quickly attention-driven flows can overwhelm shallow order books when social amplification and narrative alignment converge.

 

 

ON-CHAIN MECHANICS

 

What distinguished the MEMES episode from routine meme volatility was not merely the price movement, but the speed at which on-chain metrics re-priced risk, as liquidity migrated aggressively into MEMES pools and turnover ratios spiked, indicating that capital was rotating rapidly rather than accumulating with long-term conviction, a pattern that is clearly observable in block-by-block transaction data on BscScan, where bursts of high-frequency swaps dominated activity during peak momentum windows.

 

According to GMGN monitoring, MEMES experienced a sharp “wick down” to roughly $14.29 million in market value during a brief liquidity vacuum, before rebounding above $18 million, a sequence that illustrates how meme markets often oscillate between euphoria and fragility within minutes, especially when price discovery is driven less by fundamentals and more by reflexive trading behavior amplified by social cues.

 

THE USD1 EFFECT

 

Momentum intensified further when MEMES qualified for the BNB Chain USD1 Trading Competition, a ten-day incentive program that ranks meme tokens by market capitalization and trading activity, provided they maintain active USD1-denominated liquidity pools, a condition that MEMES met shortly after launch, allowing it to enter the competition’s top tier alongside other high-beta meme assets.

 

By mid-day, GMGN data showed MEMES had climbed to an estimated $23 million market capitalization, with a quoted price near $0.023, placing it among the top three meme tokens in the USD1 competition by market value, while simultaneously ranking first by 24-hour trading volume, a convergence that highlights how incentive structures can magnify speculative flows by converting short-term attention into measurable on-chain activity.

 

SOCIAL SIGNALS AND CROWD DYNAMICS

 

The catalytic role of He Yi’s repost is less about authority endorsement and more about signaling, because in meme markets credibility is often inferred through proximity to recognized figures rather than explicit validation, and the repost acted as a coordination point for traders already primed by the White House’s viral phrasing, effectively synchronizing attention across retail channels.

 

This synchronization is visible in wallet-level data, where clusters of new addresses entered the MEMES pools shortly after the repost, a pattern consistent with retail-driven participation rather than concentrated whale accumulation, reinforcing the view that the rally was primarily sentiment-led, with capital cycling rapidly through positions rather than settling into longer-term holdings.

 

A BROADER MEME CYCLE ON BNB CHAIN

 

The MEMES surge did not occur in isolation but within a broader resurgence of meme activity on BNB Chain, where lower transaction costs and fast block times continue to attract speculative traders, particularly when combined with competitive incentives such as the USD1 trading program, which effectively gamifies liquidity provision and turnover rather than usage or utility.

 

Historical comparisons on CoinMarketCap and BNB Chain analytics suggest that such meme-driven bursts tend to peak quickly once attention disperses or incentives rotate, yet they also serve as stress tests for on-chain infrastructure and liquidity design, revealing how rapidly capital can mobilize when narrative catalysts, social amplification, and incentive alignment coincide.

 

INTERPRETATION

 

From a structural perspective, the MEMES episode reinforces a familiar but often underestimated reality of on-chain markets: attention is a form of liquidity, and when attention is compressed into a narrow time window by social signals, even tokens with no intrinsic utility can temporarily absorb tens of millions of dollars in volume, provided the execution environment is frictionless and incentives are aligned.

 

At the same time, on-chain transparency makes the risks equally visible, as wallet churn, liquidity concentration, and rapid drawdowns are all traceable in real time, offering a reminder that meme rallies are less about value creation and more about reflexive coordination, where gains and losses are redistributed at speed rather than accumulated sustainably.

 

CONCLUSION

 

The explosive rise of MEMES on BNB Chain, catalyzed by a single high-profile repost and amplified by incentive-driven liquidity programs, illustrates how modern meme markets operate at the intersection of social signaling, on-chain mechanics, and speculative reflexivity, producing short-lived but intense price discovery events that are fully observable, verifiable, and repeatable under similar conditions.

 

While MEMES itself may or may not retain relevance once attention shifts, the episode underscores a broader truth about crypto markets in 2026: narratives move faster than fundamentals, incentives accelerate behavior, and on-chain data provides a transparent record of how quickly collective sentiment can turn visibility into volatility.

 

Read More：

When Prediction Becomes Infrastructure: How Probable Markets Is Positioning Itself Inside BNB Chain

〈A Single Repost Ignites a Meme Frenzy on BNB Chain〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。