SIRIUS ORION

The chart shows the daily flows of #Bitcoin ETFs categorized into three regimes:
🟥 Heavy inflows → bullish trend
🟧 Neutral flows → no directional bias
🟦 Heavy outflows → selling pressure

In November, $BTC suffered a 36% drop, amplified by a sell-off: the price fall triggered ETF outflows, which in turn intensified the decline.
This sequence represents the worst series of sharp sell-offs since March (dark blue area on the chart).
Good news: this sell-off pattern has ended.
Flows are now neutral, meaning the forced selling phase has stopped.
⚠️ However, a neutral pattern doesn't necessarily signal a rebound: it simply indicates a pause in selling pressure.
As long as Bitcoin remains outside the sell-off zone, price stability has a chance to consolidate, but the danger zone is not yet completely over.

von Eric Hughes
Privatsphäre ist notwendig für eine offene Gesellschaft im elektronischen Zeitalter. Privatsphäre ist kein Geheimnis. Eine private Angelegenheit ist etwas, das man nicht möchte, dass die ganze Welt es weiß, aber eine geheime Angelegenheit ist etwas, das man nicht möchte, dass irgendjemand es weiß. Privatsphäre ist die Macht, sich selektiv der Welt zu offenbaren.
Wenn zwei Parteien eine Art von Geschäften haben, hat jede eine Erinnerung an ihre Interaktion. Jede Partei kann über ihre eigene Erinnerung sprechen; wie könnte irgendjemand das verhindern? Man könnte Gesetze dagegen erlassen, aber die Meinungsfreiheit, noch mehr als die Privatsphäre, ist grundlegend für eine offene Gesellschaft; wir streben nicht danach, irgendeine Rede einzuschränken. Wenn viele Parteien zusammen im selben Forum sprechen, kann jede zu allen anderen sprechen und gemeinsam Wissen über Einzelpersonen und andere Parteien aggregieren. Die Macht der elektronischen Kommunikation hat eine solche Gruppenrede ermöglicht, und sie wird nicht einfach verschwinden, nur weil wir es vielleicht wollen.

2025 war für Kryptowährungen nicht freundlich.
Die Zahlen sind schmerzhaft:
Bitcoin endete 2025 mit einem Rückgang von 9,09 %.

Ethereum fiel um 13,62 %.
Altcoins hingegen stürzten um 44,5 % ab.
Der Dezember hat die Situation nicht verbessert.
Mit einem Rückgang von 3,56 % war es der schlimmste Dezember für BTC seit 2022.
Und das vierte Quartal war ebenso brutal.
- 23,54 % für Bitcoin.

- 29,01 % für Ethereum.
Kein nachhaltiger Aufschwung. Der Markt bleibt in einem klaren Abwärtstrend stecken.
Traditionelle Vermögenswerte, die Crypto übertreffen:
Während Kryptowährungen abstürzen, glänzen andere Vermögenswerte.

As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares to announce its latest monetary policy decision on December 19, 2025, global markets—including the cryptocurrency sector—are bracing for potential ripple effects. While Japan’s central bank has historically moved more cautiously than its U.S. or European counterparts, recent shifts in inflation dynamics and policy signals suggest this meeting could carry significant implications for Bitcoin $BTC , Ethereum $ETH , and other major digital assets.
Here are five key ideas to understand the potential effects of the BoJ’s decisions on crypto markets—and what to watch for in tomorrow’s announcement.
1️⃣ Yen Carry Trade Unwind Could Boost Risk Assets Like Bitcoin
For years, the Japanese yen has been the world’s go-to funding currency for the “carry trade”—where investors borrow cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. The BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy has kept interest rates near zero, facilitating this dynamic.
If the #BoJ signals a more hawkish stance—such as ending negative rates or tapering bond purchases—it could strengthen the yen and trigger a reversal of the carry trade. This often leads to reduced liquidity in global risk markets, including crypto. However, if the BoJ maintains dovish policy (widely expected), the status quo remains favorable for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Prediction for Dec 19: Most economists expect the BoJ to hold rates steady but may provide hints about future tightening in 2026, given Japan’s inflation has remained above 2% for over a year.
2️⃣ Stronger Yen = Potential Headwind for Crypto Denominated in USD
A stronger yen typically correlates with a weaker U.S. dollar. While a weaker dollar is generally bullish for crypto (as it lowers the cost of dollar-denominated assets for foreign buyers), the relationship isn’t always linear. Japanese retail and institutional investors represent a sizable segment of Asia’s crypto market. If yen strength increases domestic purchasing power, local demand for Bitcoin could rise, offsetting global volatility.
3️⃣ Monetary Policy Divergence Widens—Boosting Crypto’s “Alternative Asset” Appeal
If the BoJ remains dovish while the U.S. Federal Reserve or European Central Bank pivots toward rate cuts or holds steady, the policy divergence could increase market uncertainty. In such environments, Bitcoin often benefits from its narrative as a non-sovereign, hedge-agnostic asset. Investors may shift allocations toward decentralized stores of value, especially if traditional currency volatility spikes.
4️⃣ Impact on Japanese Crypto Exchanges and Institutional Adoption
Japan hosts some of the world’s most regulated and mature crypto exchanges (e.g., bitFlyer, Coincheck). BoJ policy directly influences domestic investor sentiment and regulatory appetite. A surprise rate hike or hawkish guidance could dampen near-term trading volumes. Conversely, continued accommodative policy may encourage more institutional experimentation with crypto custody, ETFs, or tokenized assets—especially as Japan advances its “Web3” national strategy.
5️⃣ Global Spillovers Through Liquidity Channels
The BoJ’s balance sheet remains one of the largest globally relative to GDP. Any signal of balance sheet normalization (even tentative) affects global liquidity conditions. Reduced liquidity historically pressures volatile assets—but crypto markets in 2025 are more resilient, with stronger institutional infrastructure and ETF-driven demand.
Still, sudden shifts in Japanese monetary policy can trigger cross-asset repricing, especially in Asia-Pacific markets where crypto trading is deeply integrated with forex and equity flows.
What to Expect on December 19: Key Predictions
🔹️Rate Decision: The BoJ is expected to keep short-term rates at 0.1% (its current positive rate), maintaining its gradual exit from negative rates introduced earlier in 2024.
🔹️Forward Guidance: Watch for language on core inflation sustainability and labor market tightness—both key to future hikes.
🔹️Yen Reaction: Immediate JPY strength could pressure USD-based crypto pairs short-term, but sustained dovishness may fuel risk appetite by year-end.
🔹️Crypto Market Sentiment: If the BoJ remains cautious, Bitcoin could extend its rally toward $95,000–$100,000, especially if aligned with U.S. macro trends (e.g., Fed rate cuts in Q1 2026).
Final Thoughts
While the BoJ doesn’t directly regulate Bitcoin, its policy choices shape global liquidity, currency flows, and investor risk appetite—all critical drivers for crypto markets. On December 19, traders should watch not just the decision itself, but the tone of Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. A dovish hold could be the quiet green light crypto bulls need to close 2025 on a high note.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.

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