btcvsgold

#btcvsgold You know I’m a bitcoin bear, so you know which of the following trajectories I think is coming. I have no material position, so I’m not “talking my book,” unless you feel that having negligible skin in the game is a position in its own right.
$BTC Bitcoin is for flight, but it would seem that Venezuelans no longer need to consider a fast exit, and the Iranian troubles that might shatter the regime appear to have come to a bloody ending – for now. So who is on the horizon that might need to consider going on the lam? To me, the answer is no one obvious, which in turn means bitcoin price weakness in my model given its role as the key driver of crypto prices.
So these are the two main scenarios:

On balance, there is more downside than upside, even if you are neutral. Of course, you have to believe in voodoo charts – but as someone who has been rewarded heavily for being a disciple, I take it as foundational.
However, the upside is certainly helped by the entropy coming out of the U.S., though the next leg of that seems to be Europe-focused, which would not elevate bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the focus of financial-market meme-chasing appears to have shifted from bitcoin to gold. Simply put, the FOMO mindset that has driven crypto for so long has landed in the precious metals arena. This is certainly a drain on bitcoin and will continue for an extended period, as gold is likely to remain exciting for a long time ahead.
The moon crew and their bags are now ogling instant “generational wealth” through a precious-metal lens, which is great for precious-metal stackers but not so great for the diamond-hand HODLers of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the main risk in the markets is that the current U.S. geopolitical chaos will hole stock markets below the waterline. The equity haven for this is precious-metal proxies, but the mainstream won’t be able to hide so easily in crypto if the Magnificent Seven get damaged by a rupture in the Western consensus.
However, all this guessing will be pre-empted by the price action in bitcoin and gold, because those closest to the reality of what’s coming next will move prices long before they move headlines. I see metals up, crypto down.
So we draw our own lines in the sand and wait.

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Bitcoin is probably getting close to its point in the market but people who are hoping it will go back up quickly might have to wait a long time. This is what the people at K33 are saying.

They have a tool that looks at things like how much money people are borrowing to buy Bitcoin, how many people are interested in buying it and what is happening in the economy. This tool is showing them things that're very similar to what they saw in September and November 2022 which was around the time when Bitcoin was at its lowest point.

The person in charge of research at K33, Vetle Lunde is saying that we should not get too excited about this. He says that the time they saw these things happen Bitcoin did not go back up quickly. Instead it just stayed at the price for a long time.

Bitcoin has lost a lot of value since January. The numbers are showing that people are being very careful. They are not borrowing money to buy Bitcoin. They are actually getting rid of the Bitcoin they already have. The number of people trading Bitcoin has gone down a lot. The number of people interested in buying it is at a four-month low.

Vetle Lunde thinks that Bitcoin will probably stay between $60,000 and $75,000 for a time. He says that this is a time for people who are patient and want to buy Bitcoin to do so.

The big investors are also being very careful. They are not really sure what to do. They are not buying or selling a lot of Bitcoin. Some of them have actually sold a lot of Bitcoin. Most of them are still holding on to it.

Even when people are very scared about Bitcoin it is not a time to buy it. The people at K33 have a tool that measures how scared or excited people are, about Bitcoin. They found out that when people are very scared Bitcoin only goes up a little bit over the next few months.

So the main thing to remember is that Bitcoin might not go down more but it is not likely to go up quickly either.
$BTC
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Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have surged to their highest level since the post‑FTX panic in November 2022, according to Google Trends data for the past five years. 
The spike aligns with Bitcoin’s latest drawdown from its Oct. 6, 2025, all‑time high near $126,000 to about $66,500 at the time of writing on Thursday, according to data from CoinGecko, leaving the asset almost 50% below its peak. 
At the same time, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has plunged into extreme fear around 9, levels previously seen during the Terra ecosystem collapse and the FTX fallout in 2022.
Google Trends shows that worldwide interest in the phrase “Bitcoin going to zero” last hit comparable levels in early November 2022, when FTX froze withdrawals, and Bitcoin crashed to around $15,000. 

Today’s Bitcoin fears different from 2022
Crypto intelligence platform Perception analyzed narrative intelligence across 650+ crypto media sources and shared its findings with Cointelegraph. 
Founder Fernando Nikolic said that fear in 2022 was driven by internal events, such as cascading failures of centralized lenders and one of the industry’s largest exchanges, while today’s fear is “driven by macro fears and being amplified by a single bearish voice.”
Nikolic said that Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone has been the loudest single voice driving the “Bitcoin could go to zero (or near-zero)” narrative, and that he has been a “one-man content machine this cycle,” calling Bitcoin to $10,000 on Feb. 3, saying markets were headed for a 2008-style crash and continuously calling for Bitcoin’s decline throughout the past month.
He told Cointelegraph that McGlone is repeatedly amplified by crypto media sites and has “essentially been the go-to bearish quote for the past three weeks.” “This media saturation likely contributes directly to the Google search spike,” he said.
Retail fear lags professional media sentiment 
Nikolic said that the actual counterpoint that “nobody is synthesizing” is that, while “Bitcoin to zero” searches are spiking, institutional buyers are accumulating more BTC, pointing to the fact that sovereign wealth funds, such as Abu Dhabi, are increasing their Bitcoin exchange-traded fund holdings, and large corporations like Strategy continue to stack BTC.
According to Perception data, he said, media sentiment bottomed on Feb. 5, but has been recovering for two weeks, while Google “Bitcoin going to zero” searches are peaking now in mid-February.
Related: Willy Woo warns quantum risk is eroding Bitcoin’s edge over gold
Retail fear lags professional media sentiment by about 10-14 days, he said. “By the time the public is most scared, the professional narrative has already started to stabilize. The retail narrative and institutional behavior are moving in opposite directions.”

Research underpinning the index finds that spikes in global uncertainty tend to precede weaker output and slower growth as companies delay investment and hiring. 
Quantum fears have also been a persistent background narrative since October 2025, according to Nikolic, but he said that quantum fear spikes alongside price drops, not independently. 
“Bitcoin quantum” searches peaked in November 2025 and have been falling steadily since, according to Google Trends.
“It’s an amplifier of existing bearish sentiment, not a standalone driver. The “Bitcoin going to zero” search trend is likely a composite of price-crash fear + quantum existential fear + McGlone-style macro doom, all converging in the same window.”

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