🚨 IRAN RISK IS BACK ON THE OIL TAPE
And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
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