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🚨 Iran Temporarily Closes Part of the Strait of Hormuz
🛢️OIL prices are 🟢🚀
#Iran shut sections of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours during naval drills involving advanced armed drones.
• 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz
• Key route for Saudi, Iraqi, UAE, Kuwaiti crude
• Critical corridor for Qatar LNG
Even short disruptions remind the market how fragile physical flows are.
So far this is a drill, not a supply shock.
But in a market already sensitive to geopolitics, chokepoint risk always carries a premium.
Watch freight rates, time spreads, and any insurance repricing.
#oott #LNG
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🛢️OIL prices are 🟢🚀
#Iran shut sections of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours during naval drills involving advanced armed drones.
• 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz
• Key route for Saudi, Iraqi, UAE, Kuwaiti crude
• Critical corridor for Qatar LNG
Even short disruptions remind the market how fragile physical flows are.
So far this is a drill, not a supply shock.
But in a market already sensitive to geopolitics, chokepoint risk always carries a premium.
Watch freight rates, time spreads, and any insurance repricing.
#oott #LNG
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This is the chemistry behind every barrel.
Crude oil It’s a mixture of hydrocarbons, from light methane (CH₄) to heavy C20+ molecules.
In a refinery distillation :
• Light molecules rise. Natural gas, LPG, gasoline.
• Mid-range chains condense in the middle. Kerosene, jet fuel, diesel.
• Heavy long chains stay lower. Lube oils, fuel oil, residuals.
The longer the carbon chain, the higher the boiling point.
The higher the boiling point, the heavier the product.
From C1 to C22+, the refinery separates value by physics.
Temperature becomes money.
Every liter of fuel is a controlled sorting of molecules by boiling point.
#OOTT
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Crude oil It’s a mixture of hydrocarbons, from light methane (CH₄) to heavy C20+ molecules.
In a refinery distillation :
• Light molecules rise. Natural gas, LPG, gasoline.
• Mid-range chains condense in the middle. Kerosene, jet fuel, diesel.
• Heavy long chains stay lower. Lube oils, fuel oil, residuals.
The longer the carbon chain, the higher the boiling point.
The higher the boiling point, the heavier the product.
From C1 to C22+, the refinery separates value by physics.
Temperature becomes money.
Every liter of fuel is a controlled sorting of molecules by boiling point.
#OOTT
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📈 Global Fossil Fuel Prices (1990–2026)
According to the World Bank and IMF energy price indices, global fossil fuel prices remain below the 2007–2014 average but above the 2015–2020 average, reflecting a moderation from pre-2015 highs while staying elevated relative to the mid-2010s period.
#energy #fuels #oil #crude #OOTT #NatGas #coal
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According to the World Bank and IMF energy price indices, global fossil fuel prices remain below the 2007–2014 average but above the 2015–2020 average, reflecting a moderation from pre-2015 highs while staying elevated relative to the mid-2010s period.
#energy #fuels #oil #crude #OOTT #NatGas #coal
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🚨 Exxon 2025 Earnings
💰How they made money?
🇺🇸Total earnings excluding financing costs $28B.
Segment contribution:
• Upstream $21B (-16% YoY)
• Energy Products $7B (+84% YoY)
• Specialty Products $3B (-6% YoY)
• Chemical Products $1B (-69% YoY)
Upstream still dominant
But downstream is carrying more weight
#OOTT
💰How they made money?
🇺🇸Total earnings excluding financing costs $28B.
Segment contribution:
• Upstream $21B (-16% YoY)
• Energy Products $7B (+84% YoY)
• Specialty Products $3B (-6% YoY)
• Chemical Products $1B (-69% YoY)
Upstream still dominant
But downstream is carrying more weight
#OOTT
🛢️ HOW A BARREL OF OIL BECOMES EVERYTHING?
1 barrel=Multiple markets
Inside a refinery distillation column, crude is separated by boiling point:
Lightest fractions (<85°F)
→ Butane, LPG
85–185°F
→ Gasoline blendstock
185–350°F
→ Naphtha (petchem feedstock)
350–450°F
→ Kerosene, jet fuel
450–650°F
→ Diesel, heating oil
650–1,050°F
→ Heavy gas oil
1,050°F
→ Residual fuel oil
Why this matters:
Refining margins depend on the spread between these products.
Jet fuels, diesel , gasoline demand.
Oil isn’t one commodity.
It’s a stack of markets inside one barrel.
#OOTT
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1 barrel=Multiple markets
Inside a refinery distillation column, crude is separated by boiling point:
Lightest fractions (<85°F)
→ Butane, LPG
85–185°F
→ Gasoline blendstock
185–350°F
→ Naphtha (petchem feedstock)
350–450°F
→ Kerosene, jet fuel
450–650°F
→ Diesel, heating oil
650–1,050°F
→ Heavy gas oil
1,050°F
→ Residual fuel oil
Why this matters:
Refining margins depend on the spread between these products.
Jet fuels, diesel , gasoline demand.
Oil isn’t one commodity.
It’s a stack of markets inside one barrel.
#OOTT
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🇷🇺 RUSSIA STILL HOLDS 16% OF EU LNG🇪🇺
Even after the war.
2025 numbers:
• 🇺🇸 US. 52.5% of EU LNG (€24.2B)
• 🇷🇺 Russia. 16.1% (€7.4B)
(Russia revenue only -3% vs 2024)
Moscow remained the EU’s 2nd LNG supplier by value.
And wants to be a global LNG superpower.
On paper:
• Yamal LNG – 17.4 mtpa
• Arctic LNG 1 & 2 – ~40 mtpa combined
• Baltic, Murmansk, Obsky projects planned
• Far East & Sakhalin expansion
Dozens of mtpa under construction or planned.
Reality:
• Sanctions block tech & financing
• Arctic LNG 2 stalled
• Ice-class fleet constraints
• Limited Western buyers
Ambition: 100+ mtpa long term.
Execution: constrained.
#Russia can build capacity.
But selling it at scale is the real bottleneck.
#oott #energy #LNG
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Even after the war.
2025 numbers:
• 🇺🇸 US. 52.5% of EU LNG (€24.2B)
• 🇷🇺 Russia. 16.1% (€7.4B)
(Russia revenue only -3% vs 2024)
Moscow remained the EU’s 2nd LNG supplier by value.
And wants to be a global LNG superpower.
On paper:
• Yamal LNG – 17.4 mtpa
• Arctic LNG 1 & 2 – ~40 mtpa combined
• Baltic, Murmansk, Obsky projects planned
• Far East & Sakhalin expansion
Dozens of mtpa under construction or planned.
Reality:
• Sanctions block tech & financing
• Arctic LNG 2 stalled
• Ice-class fleet constraints
• Limited Western buyers
Ambition: 100+ mtpa long term.
Execution: constrained.
#Russia can build capacity.
But selling it at scale is the real bottleneck.
#oott #energy #LNG
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🛢️ VENEZUELA IS BACK ON THE U.S. MAP
• Chevron deploying $100M+
• New hydrocarbons law
• US Energy Secretary in Caracas
🇻🇪 303Bn barrels of reserves
Production ~1M bpd → targeting 2.5M+ bpd.
This is brownfield recovery. Not new megaprojects.
And it’s politically backed.
💡 One oilfield services company made $500M+ per year there pre-sanctions.
Today. Zero #Venezuela revenue.
If volumes return, so can margins.
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#oott
• Chevron deploying $100M+
• New hydrocarbons law
• US Energy Secretary in Caracas
🇻🇪 303Bn barrels of reserves
Production ~1M bpd → targeting 2.5M+ bpd.
This is brownfield recovery. Not new megaprojects.
And it’s politically backed.
💡 One oilfield services company made $500M+ per year there pre-sanctions.
Today. Zero #Venezuela revenue.
If volumes return, so can margins.
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#oott
💥 THE WORLD’S RESOURCE POWER MAP
Underground wealth in $ trillions.
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
• 🇮🇶 Iraq $16T
• 🇻🇪 #Venezuela $14T
This is oil, gas, coal, #copper, rare earths, uranium.
Geology shapes geopolitics.
Countries with reserves hold leverage.
#oott
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Underground wealth in $ trillions.
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
• 🇮🇶 Iraq $16T
• 🇻🇪 #Venezuela $14T
This is oil, gas, coal, #copper, rare earths, uranium.
Geology shapes geopolitics.
Countries with reserves hold leverage.
#oott
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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #Copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #Commodity
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #Copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #Commodity
🚨 US WANTS TO CUT IRANIAN OIL TO CHINA
Maximum pressure is back on the table.
• US + Israel aligned on tightening Iran oil flows
• Target = Iranian exports to China
• Iran ships 1.5 mb/d, mostly to China
• Much moves via shadow fleets
Why it matters?
• China is Iran’s lifeline buyer
• Cutting that flow hits Tehran’s revenue
• Enforcement risk rises for traders + insurers
This is supply risk.
If enforcement intensifies:
• Iranian barrels disappear from “visible” market
• China refiners scramble for alternatives
• Heavy crude differentials tighten
• Oil risk premium returns
The market sees surplus.
Policy can erase barrels overnight.
#China #Iran #OOTT
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Maximum pressure is back on the table.
• US + Israel aligned on tightening Iran oil flows
• Target = Iranian exports to China
• Iran ships 1.5 mb/d, mostly to China
• Much moves via shadow fleets
Why it matters?
• China is Iran’s lifeline buyer
• Cutting that flow hits Tehran’s revenue
• Enforcement risk rises for traders + insurers
This is supply risk.
If enforcement intensifies:
• Iranian barrels disappear from “visible” market
• China refiners scramble for alternatives
• Heavy crude differentials tighten
• Oil risk premium returns
The market sees surplus.
Policy can erase barrels overnight.
#China #Iran #OOTT
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🚨 RUSSIA SITS ON $75 TRILLION IN NATURAL RESOURCES
That’s more than anyone
Top countries by resource value:
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
Russia’s edge:
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Timber
• Rare earths
This isn’t GDP.
It’s underground leverage.
#Energy. #Metals Strategic materials.
When geopolitics escalates,
countries with reserves hold optionality.
The balance of power isn’t just military.
It’s geological.
#OOTT
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That’s more than anyone
Top countries by resource value:
• 🇷🇺 #Russia $75T
• 🇺🇸 US $45T
• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $34T
• 🇨🇦 #Canada $33T
• 🇮🇷 #Iran $27T
• 🇨🇳 #China $23T
• 🇧🇷 #Brazil $22T
• 🇦🇺 Australia $20T
Russia’s edge:
• Oil
• Gas
• Coal
• Timber
• Rare earths
This isn’t GDP.
It’s underground leverage.
#Energy. #Metals Strategic materials.
When geopolitics escalates,
countries with reserves hold optionality.
The balance of power isn’t just military.
It’s geological.
#OOTT
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🚨 VENEZUELA IS NOT JUST AN OIL STORY
It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
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It’s a resource superpower.
• 🇻🇪 Oil 303B barrels, first globally
• Natural gas 5.5 Tcm, Top 10
• #Gold ~2,300 tonnes (est.)
• Iron ore ~6 Gt
• Bauxite, diamonds, #coal
Most concentrated around the Orinoco Belt & #Mining Arc.
#Venezuela isn’t a 1 commodity bet.
It’s a geology advantage.
If political normalization accelerates:
• Hydrocarbons scale first
• Mining FDI follows
• Strategic metals re-rate
Venezuela isn’t just a turnaround oil trade.
It’s a multi-resource optionality play.
#oott #NatGas
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🚨 IRAN RISK IS BACK ON THE OIL TAPE
And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
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And STS activity tells you why.
• Iranian STS transfers peaked ~50+ in Mar-25
• Still ~20–30 per month into 2026
• Majority routed via China-linked hubs
• Shadow flows remain active
Now overlay this:
US military reportedly preparing for weeks-long operations against Iran if ordered.
This isn’t symbolic escalation.
It’s sustained disruption risk.
Why it matters:
• Iran exports ~1.3–1.5 mb/d
• Much of it moves via STS + opaque channels
• Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil flows
If operations begin:
• STS activity collapses
• China-linked refiners scramble
• Freight rates spike
• Risk premium returns fast
The market is pricing surplus.
Geopolitics is pricing optionality.
Hormuz is the real variable.
#Iran #oott
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🛢️How Big is the Oil market?
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
FOLLOW LIKE SHARE
Bigger than the top 10 metal markets combined.
Oil alone > iron ore + #GOLD + #copper + aluminum + nickel combined.
Why it matters?
• Oil sets inflation
• Oil drives trade balances
• Oil anchors geopolitics
• Oil underpins petrochemicals, transport, power
This isn’t just another commodity.
It’s the largest physical market on Earth⚠️
When oil moves,
everything else adjusts.
#oott #commodity
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🚨 CHEVRON TO DOUBLE OUTPUT IN VENEZUELA
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
With explicit US backing them🇺🇸
• 2x production in 1 field in 12–18 months
• 5x over 5 years if licenses expand
• $100m near-term infrastructure spend
• License expansion to market 100% of output
Chevron already 25% of national production.
This is sanctioned oil reintegration under US control.
If executed:
• Hundreds of kb/d back to market
• USGC refiners secure heavy crude
• Russian/Iranian barrels face competition
💡 This is an opportunity.
One company generated $500M+ annually in Venezuela pre-sanctions.
It just crushed Q4.
It has zero Venezuela revenue... For now
Full thesis, data, risks and position structure here 👇
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#oott #Venezuela
🚨 EUROPE’S GAS SHOCK ISN’T OVER
Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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Prices collapsed from 2022 highs.
But they didn’t reset to pre crisis norms.
• TTF peaked above €300/MWh in 2022
• JKM surged above $60/MMBtu
• 2025–26 levels still structurally higher than 2019
• EU power prices remain above US & China
Look at industry power costs:
• #Italy & #Germany still elevated
• EU average > US average
• #China & US structurally cheaper
Why?
• #LNG import dependence
• Loss of cheap Russian pipeline gas
• Volatile global gas linkage
This is structural cost inflation.
If gas stays globally priced:
• European industry loses margin
• Deindustrialisation risk rises
• US gains manufacturing edge
Gas isn’t just fuel.
It’s competitiveness.
#oott #NatGas #Russia
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🚨 RUSSIA DIDN’T LOSE BUYERS.
IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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IT CHANGED THEM.
What happened?
• Sanctions reshaped flows
• Discounts redirected barrels
• Asia absorbed volume
• Europe rerouted to LNG + US crude
Russia didn’t disappear from the market.
It pivoted East.
If this persists:
• Asia locks long-term discounts
• Europe pays structural premium
• Trade routes harden
• Energy blocs solidify
Oil flows follow politics and politics now follows oil.
#oott #Russia
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🚨 THE ENERGY GAP IS NOT CLOSING
It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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It’s scaling with income
• US 250–300 GJ per person
• #India 25–30 GJ per person
• DR Congo 1 GJ per person
Huge gap between richest and poorest
Why?
• Industrialisation drives energy intensity
• Urbanisation multiplies electricity demand
• Mobility = oil demand
• Income growth = appliance growth
If billions move from $5k to $15k GDP per capita:
• Power grids must triple
• LNG demand structurally rises
• Oil demand plateaus later than expected
• Coal exits slower than models assume
Per capita #energy use is a proxy for wealth.
And most of the world is still at the bottom left of that chart.
Markets price peak demand.
Demographics price expansion.
#OOTT
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Oil & gas runs through four core segments:
🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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🛢️ Upstream
Exploration & production.
Driven by oil & gas prices. Highest risk, highest leverage.
🚚 Midstream
Pipelines, shipping, storage.
Driven by volumes and contracts. Infrastructure play.
🏭 Downstream
Refining & petrochemicals.
Driven by margins and product demand.
🛒 Marketing & End Use
Retail, aviation, industry.
Driven by final consumption.
When the cycle shifts, profits rotate across the chain.
#oott
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#RiskAssetsMarketShock
🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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🚢 Oil Tankers Decide the Market
Not the Other Way Around.
This is how crude really moves ⬇️
• ULCC / VLCC
200k–320k DWT. Long-haul giants. Middle East → Asia. Lowest cost per barrel.
• Suezmax
120k–160k DWT. Optimized for the Suez Canal. Atlantic ↔ Asia flexibility.
• Aframax
80k–120k DWT. Regional workhorse. Shorter routes. Higher freight sensitivity.
• Panamax
60k–80k DWT. Canal-restricted. Niche trades only.
Tanker size = route access + freight cost + arbitrage viability.
When geopolitics hit canals or chokepoints, freight rewrites oil prices fast.
Whoever controls ships controls flows.
#oott
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