Arthur Hayes is sounding the alarm on what he sees as a potential AI-driven credit crisis—and he thinks Bitcoin may already be hinting at it.
In a recent blog post, the BitMEX co-founder argues that Bitcoin is acting as a “fiat liquidity fire alarm,” pointing to its recent divergence from the Nasdaq as a warning sign. While tech stocks have remained relatively steady, Bitcoin’s pullback could be signaling tightening credit conditions beneath the surface.
Hayes’ core thesis is that rapid AI adoption could lead to large-scale layoffs among white-collar knowledge workers, many of whom carry significant consumer debt and mortgages. If even a portion of those workers lose their jobs, he believes it could strain bank balance sheets and trigger a broader credit contraction.
In that scenario, markets would likely move into a deflationary phase first. But, as in previous crises, Hayes expects central banks to eventually step in with aggressive liquidity measures. That wave of money printing, he argues, could ultimately push Bitcoin to new highs after the initial shock.
For now, his advice is simple: stay liquid, avoid excessive leverage, and wait for clear signals that central banks are ready to turn the liquidity taps back on.