According to the prediction market on Polymarket, traders currently assign a 74% chance that the Supreme Court of the United States will rule against tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. The “Yes” side (tariffs upheld) is trading around 26¢, implying low market confidence in their legality.
📉 The chart shows a steady decline in odds of the tariffs being upheld, suggesting growing conviction that the Court could invalidate them.
If such a ruling materializes, potential implications include:
• Reduced executive leverage over trade policy;
• Increased congressional control over tariff authority;
• Short-term volatility across equities, commodities, and FX markets sensitive to trade exposure.
Prediction markets do not guarantee outcomes, but they reflect aggregated capital weighted sentiment and right now, that sentiment leans decisively toward the tariffs being struck down.
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