Exactly—this is a classic case where the headline number looks scary, but the actual market impact is usually much smaller. A few key points:
Historical Behavior – Ripple’s past unlocks show that a large portion of XRP is quickly re-locked in escrow, so only a small percentage actually hits exchanges. That means most of the 1B XRP may never truly enter active circulation.
Exchange Balances – Declining $XRP balances on exchanges suggest less supply is immediately available to sell. When coins are off exchanges, it’s harder for the market to be shocked by large movements.
ETF Inflows – Steady demand from ETFs adds a buffer, absorbing potential supply that does appear. This acts like a stabilizer for price, preventing sudden dips.
Market Psychology – Media headlines tend to exaggerate the “fear” of an unlock. Traders see “1B XRP unlocked” and panic, but the actual liquidity impact is far smaller.
✅ Bottom line: The 1B unlock is worth noting, but historically, XRP markets handle these calmly. If anything, it’s more about strategic deployment than sudden selling pressure.