TYCOON_XD

Current Price: ~$68,000–$69,000
What Happened???
After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,198 in October 2025, $BTC has faced a significant retracement, with the market entering a volatile correction phase in February 2026.
Bitcoin briefly broke below $61,000 earlier this month as the sell-off intensified. Institutional demand has reversed materially — U.S. ETFs, which were purchasing 46,000 bitcoin this time last year, are now net sellers in 2026.
On February 5, Bitcoin registered an extreme single-day crash velocity, placing it among the fastest single-day drops in crypto history. Bitcoin also briefly traded nearly 2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average — a level not seen at any point in the past 10 years, including during COVID or the FTX collapse.
Current Technical Picture
Bitcoin remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, confirming the broader bearish trend. The recent consolidation near the $68,000–$69,000 region suggests short-term stabilization, but price is still structurally below key moving averages. The MACD histogram shows fading bearish momentum rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $65,000–$60,000
- Resistance: $73,300 (20 EMA), then $80,700
- Bull case trigger: Reclaiming the 200-day EMA near $95,700
Key Drivers of the Selloff
The move was driven by a rapid unwind of leverage rather than a single liquidation shock, with approximately $2–$2.5 billion concentrated in Bitcoin futures — meaningful but not yet a classic capitulation event.
Tax season pressures from the new IRS Form 1099-DA have added a compliance layer, potentially leading some US-based investors to liquidate positions to cover tax liabilities.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin appears to have completed a 5-wave cycle off the 2022 low, with volume decelerating as price increased and expanding as price declined — a sign of trend transition.
Macro Context & Cycle Perspective
This correction follows historical precedent. Bitcoin traditionally enters a cooling-off period 12–18 months after a halving event. Having peaked roughly 17 months after the April 2024 halving, the current 40–50% drawdown is mathematically consistent with previous cycles. While the Fear & Greed Index sits in Extreme Fear (around 8–10), seasoned investors often view these levels as a reset rather than a terminal decline.
Outlook
Most analysts assign less than 10% odds to Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before end of February. The consensus points toward a trading range of $64,000–$75,000 as the market searches for a definitive bottom.

Longer term, some analysts remain optimistic — with predictions of $150K–$230K later in 2026 if the bear phase bottoms out and institutional flows return.
This is market information, not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always do your own research before making investment decisions.
$BTC .....