AriaNaka
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Founder of BlockWeb3 | Elite KOL at CoinMarketCap and Binance | On-Chain Research and Market Insights
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Jesse Livermore’s 12 Trading Rules - Why 90% of Traders Still Ignore Them
These are the rules that will help you survive the market, built on experience paid for in blood and bankruptcy.
1) Stop adding to losing trades.
Throwing good money after bad is how you go broke. Period.
2) Always have an exit plan.
Trading without a stop-loss is just gambling with your life savings.
3) Kill your losses fast.
Don't overthink it. If it’s red, cut it and move on.
4) Let your winners ride.
You don’t get rich on small wins; you get rich by staying in the big ones.
5) Wait for the market to prove you right.
Your "gut feeling" doesn't matter until the price starts moving.
6) Hope is a death sentence.
If you’re "hoping" a stock bounces back, you’ve already lost.
7) Don't bet the farm.
You can't make a comeback if you don't have any chips left.
8) Don't fight the trend.
Swimming against the current will only drown you.
9) Sit on your hands.
Once you're in a winning trade, the hardest (and most profitable) thing to do is nothing.
10) When in doubt, stay out.
If the chart looks like a mess, doing nothing is the smartest trade you can make.
11) Only go bigger when you're winning.
Scale into strength, never into weakness.
12) Guard your cash like your life depends on it.
Because in this game, it actually does.
Every single one of these rules was paid for with a blown account and a lot of sleepless nights.
1) Stop adding to losing trades.
Throwing good money after bad is how you go broke. Period.
2) Always have an exit plan.
Trading without a stop-loss is just gambling with your life savings.
3) Kill your losses fast.
Don't overthink it. If it’s red, cut it and move on.
4) Let your winners ride.
You don’t get rich on small wins; you get rich by staying in the big ones.
5) Wait for the market to prove you right.
Your "gut feeling" doesn't matter until the price starts moving.
6) Hope is a death sentence.
If you’re "hoping" a stock bounces back, you’ve already lost.
7) Don't bet the farm.
You can't make a comeback if you don't have any chips left.
8) Don't fight the trend.
Swimming against the current will only drown you.
9) Sit on your hands.
Once you're in a winning trade, the hardest (and most profitable) thing to do is nothing.
10) When in doubt, stay out.
If the chart looks like a mess, doing nothing is the smartest trade you can make.
11) Only go bigger when you're winning.
Scale into strength, never into weakness.
12) Guard your cash like your life depends on it.
Because in this game, it actually does.
Every single one of these rules was paid for with a blown account and a lot of sleepless nights.
$BTC is looking weak here and dropped below the $67,000 level.
The next crucial zone for Bitcoin is $65,000-$66,000.
Losing to hold this level will break the higher low structure and could result in a sweep of $60,000 zone.
The next crucial zone for Bitcoin is $65,000-$66,000.
Losing to hold this level will break the higher low structure and could result in a sweep of $60,000 zone.
This is actually so insane.
Market attention is gradually shifting toward emerging L1 narratives, and $FOGO is positioning itself within that rotation as infrastructure demand rebuilds.
While price action still looks early, base formation alongside steady participation often signals accumulation rather than speculation.
Tracking how @Fogo Official scales execution as network activity expands ignition phases tend to begin quietly before momentum fully reprices the narrative. #fogo
While price action still looks early, base formation alongside steady participation often signals accumulation rather than speculation.
Tracking how @Fogo Official scales execution as network activity expands ignition phases tend to begin quietly before momentum fully reprices the narrative. #fogo
Range-Bound Under Pressure
$BTC has broken below the True Market Mean, slipping into a defensive range toward the Realized Price (~$54.9k). Spot and ETF demand remain weak, and panic hedging has eased.
$BTC has broken below the True Market Mean, slipping into a defensive range toward the Realized Price (~$54.9k). Spot and ETF demand remain weak, and panic hedging has eased.
🚨 Liquidity Is Draining While Tech Hits Demand - Is $BTC About to Follow?
#Bitcoin on chain structure is flashing a critical shift. STH Realized Cap 30D change has plunged deep into negative territory, signaling aggressive short term capitulation. Historically, this level of STH stress precedes either sharp continuation selloffs or violent mean reversion rallies. The market is at an inflection point.
Meanwhile, Binance Futures Power 30D Change is rolling over again. Leverage appetite is fading, positioning is thinning, and momentum is weakening. When derivatives lose strength while spot holders realize losses, volatility expansion usually follows
Now zoom out. The Tech Software Sector ETF IGV is sitting directly on a major multi year demand zone. Previous reactions from this level triggered strong upside rotations. If risk assets stabilize here, Bitcoin could see synchronized relief. If IGV breaks, macro pressure intensifies
This is not random chop. It is compression before expansion.
Watch liquidity. Watch tech. Watch the reaction here. #AriaNaka
#Bitcoin on chain structure is flashing a critical shift. STH Realized Cap 30D change has plunged deep into negative territory, signaling aggressive short term capitulation. Historically, this level of STH stress precedes either sharp continuation selloffs or violent mean reversion rallies. The market is at an inflection point.
Meanwhile, Binance Futures Power 30D Change is rolling over again. Leverage appetite is fading, positioning is thinning, and momentum is weakening. When derivatives lose strength while spot holders realize losses, volatility expansion usually follows
Now zoom out. The Tech Software Sector ETF IGV is sitting directly on a major multi year demand zone. Previous reactions from this level triggered strong upside rotations. If risk assets stabilize here, Bitcoin could see synchronized relief. If IGV breaks, macro pressure intensifies
This is not random chop. It is compression before expansion.
Watch liquidity. Watch tech. Watch the reaction here. #AriaNaka
Happy Wednesday
The last time $BTC was red for five consecutive months, a huge bullish phase followed immediately afterward.
🚨 U.S. Tax Refund Shock in 2026: Stimulus or Structural Stress?
A proposed 2026 tax refund package of roughly $318 billion is being framed as economic relief. On the surface, it looks stimulative: households receive cash, spending rises, growth data improves, and markets respond positively. But the macro impact depends less on the refund itself and more on how it is financed.
Large refunds function as a fast demand injection. They support consumption at a time when underlying conditions may already be weakening. That alone suggests the policy is not a sign of strength, but stabilization. Fiscal transfers of this scale do not emerge in overheating economies; they emerge when momentum needs reinforcement.
The funding mechanism is critical. If the broader fiscal package expands deficits over time, the Treasury must issue more debt. More issuance increases bond supply. Bond markets adjust through yields. When supply rises without matching demand, yields remain elevated or move higher.
Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions. Borrowing costs for corporations stay restrictive. Mortgage rates remain heavy. Equity valuations face pressure through higher discount rates. In effect, liquidity is injected into households while being absorbed through the sovereign debt market.
The sequencing creates risk. Refund cash hits quickly. Spending spikes quickly. Risk assets may rally on improved data and optimism.
This dynamic sets up a classic trap: a relief rally followed by repricing once funding stress returns. It is not the headline stimulus that matters most, but whether debt markets can absorb expanded issuance without demanding higher compensation.
Liquidity added in one channel and drained in another rarely produces stability. Investors should focus less on the immediate boost and more on the structural balance sheet consequences that follow.
#AriaNaka #PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking
A proposed 2026 tax refund package of roughly $318 billion is being framed as economic relief. On the surface, it looks stimulative: households receive cash, spending rises, growth data improves, and markets respond positively. But the macro impact depends less on the refund itself and more on how it is financed.
Large refunds function as a fast demand injection. They support consumption at a time when underlying conditions may already be weakening. That alone suggests the policy is not a sign of strength, but stabilization. Fiscal transfers of this scale do not emerge in overheating economies; they emerge when momentum needs reinforcement.
The funding mechanism is critical. If the broader fiscal package expands deficits over time, the Treasury must issue more debt. More issuance increases bond supply. Bond markets adjust through yields. When supply rises without matching demand, yields remain elevated or move higher.
Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions. Borrowing costs for corporations stay restrictive. Mortgage rates remain heavy. Equity valuations face pressure through higher discount rates. In effect, liquidity is injected into households while being absorbed through the sovereign debt market.
The sequencing creates risk. Refund cash hits quickly. Spending spikes quickly. Risk assets may rally on improved data and optimism.
This dynamic sets up a classic trap: a relief rally followed by repricing once funding stress returns. It is not the headline stimulus that matters most, but whether debt markets can absorb expanded issuance without demanding higher compensation.
Liquidity added in one channel and drained in another rarely produces stability. Investors should focus less on the immediate boost and more on the structural balance sheet consequences that follow.
#AriaNaka #PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking
Execution Pressure Is Building Where Markets Least Expect
Capital moves fast, but infrastructure doesn’t always adapt at the same speed. What markets are starting to notice isn’t transaction volume itself, but how execution behaves when activity clusters into narrow windows. Coordinated flows, automated strategies, and synchronized liquidity shifts are exposing stress points that raw performance metrics never revealed.
Under these conditions, scalability stops being theoretical. Validation pathways, execution concurrency, and confirmation timing begin shaping financial outcomes directly. Systems that process activity sequentially feel pressure first. Coordination drag appears before throughput ceilings do.
The infrastructure stack surrounding @Fogo Official aligns with a different scaling posture. SVM-based concurrent execution expands computational bandwidth, while multi-local consensus zoning distributes validation load instead of centralizing it. Client performance optimization reinforces propagation speed, keeping transaction flow synchronized under pressure.
Rather than optimizing for peak optics, the architecture supporting $FOGO appears structured around sustaining execution stability as demand compresses. As markets grow more sensitive to coordination risk, infrastructure resilience not just speed is becoming central to how networks under #fogo are evaluated.
Under these conditions, scalability stops being theoretical. Validation pathways, execution concurrency, and confirmation timing begin shaping financial outcomes directly. Systems that process activity sequentially feel pressure first. Coordination drag appears before throughput ceilings do.
The infrastructure stack surrounding @Fogo Official aligns with a different scaling posture. SVM-based concurrent execution expands computational bandwidth, while multi-local consensus zoning distributes validation load instead of centralizing it. Client performance optimization reinforces propagation speed, keeping transaction flow synchronized under pressure.
Rather than optimizing for peak optics, the architecture supporting $FOGO appears structured around sustaining execution stability as demand compresses. As markets grow more sensitive to coordination risk, infrastructure resilience not just speed is becoming central to how networks under #fogo are evaluated.
$FOGO – forming a rounded base after a prolonged selloff, momentum building as $PEPE narrative heats up 🔥
Long #fogo
Entry: 0.024 - 0.025
SL: 0.02
TP1: 0.0295
TP2: 0.0382
TP3: 0.055
Fogo elling pressure is fading while higher lows begin to form, signaling accumulation. As long as price holds above the 0.023 zone, upside continuation toward higher resistance levels remains the dominant path @Fogo Official
Trade $FOGO here 👇
Long #fogo
Entry: 0.024 - 0.025
SL: 0.02
TP1: 0.0295
TP2: 0.0382
TP3: 0.055
Fogo elling pressure is fading while higher lows begin to form, signaling accumulation. As long as price holds above the 0.023 zone, upside continuation toward higher resistance levels remains the dominant path @Fogo Official
Trade $FOGO here 👇
🔥 When Short Term Holders Break Even, The Real Battle Begins
$BTC Short Term Holder SOPR is once again compressing around the 1.0 equilibrium level, signaling a decisive inflection point between profit taking and forced selling. Historically, sustained moves above 1.0 confirm expansion phases, while repeated failures reflect distribution pressure building beneath the surface.
The previous drop into the 0.95 capitulation zone marked emotional exhaustion and local seller climax. That flush reset leverage and created the foundation for the next structural rally. Now we are seeing SOPR grinding just above 1.0 ⚠, meaning weak hands are no longer underwater, but conviction remains fragile.
During the first tariff shock event, SOPR briefly dipped before recovering quickly, showing absorption rather than collapse. The current structure mirrors that setup, yet volatility clusters are tightening, suggesting energy is being stored for a larger directional move.
If SOPR reclaims and holds firmly above 1.02 with expanding price strength, momentum continuation becomes statistically favorable. Failure to defend 1.0, however, opens the door for another capitulation sweep toward 0.95 where real opportunity tends to emerge.
The market is not crashing. It is compressing. And compression precedes expansion.
$BTC Short Term Holder SOPR is once again compressing around the 1.0 equilibrium level, signaling a decisive inflection point between profit taking and forced selling. Historically, sustained moves above 1.0 confirm expansion phases, while repeated failures reflect distribution pressure building beneath the surface.
The previous drop into the 0.95 capitulation zone marked emotional exhaustion and local seller climax. That flush reset leverage and created the foundation for the next structural rally. Now we are seeing SOPR grinding just above 1.0 ⚠, meaning weak hands are no longer underwater, but conviction remains fragile.
During the first tariff shock event, SOPR briefly dipped before recovering quickly, showing absorption rather than collapse. The current structure mirrors that setup, yet volatility clusters are tightening, suggesting energy is being stored for a larger directional move.
If SOPR reclaims and holds firmly above 1.02 with expanding price strength, momentum continuation becomes statistically favorable. Failure to defend 1.0, however, opens the door for another capitulation sweep toward 0.95 where real opportunity tends to emerge.
The market is not crashing. It is compressing. And compression precedes expansion.
Basically it’s the best visualization of smart buys VS fomo buys 🤔
500 years of interest rates, visualized
The Next Layer 1 Breakdowns Won’t Come From Demand They’ll Come From Design
Market cycles often assume that infrastructure stress only appears when user activity explodes. But recent on-chain behavior suggests something more fragile: systems are being tested not by scale alone, but by how activity concentrates. Short bursts of synchronized execution are proving more destabilizing than sustained growth.
This pattern is forcing a reassessment of what “scalability” actually means. It’s no longer just about how many transactions a chain can process, but how it behaves when transaction intent collides when liquidity moves simultaneously, when strategies trigger in clusters, when settlement windows compress unexpectedly.
Under these conditions, architectural decisions surface quickly. Validation pathways, execution scheduling, and coordination flow all determine whether demand disperses or compounds into bottlenecks. Some infrastructures stretch; others fracture.
What becomes increasingly valuable is structural elasticity the ability for system components to distribute pressure rather than absorb it at a single coordination point. Networks engineered with segmented validation, concurrent execution environments, and high-speed client propagation tend to retain stability even when transaction behavior becomes asymmetric.
The system design surrounding @Fogo Official reflects alignment with this elasticity model. SVM-based execution enables distributed computation, while multi-local consensus zoning fragments validation load across parallel environments. Client performance optimization reinforces communication efficiency, preventing synchronization lag as activity clusters.
Rather than framing performance around peak metrics, the infrastructure stack supporting $FOGO appears oriented toward maintaining composure when coordination stress intensifies. As markets evolve toward more synchronized on-chain behavior, architectural elasticity may become a defining valuation layer a trajectory increasingly associated with the engineering direction behind #fogo
This pattern is forcing a reassessment of what “scalability” actually means. It’s no longer just about how many transactions a chain can process, but how it behaves when transaction intent collides when liquidity moves simultaneously, when strategies trigger in clusters, when settlement windows compress unexpectedly.
Under these conditions, architectural decisions surface quickly. Validation pathways, execution scheduling, and coordination flow all determine whether demand disperses or compounds into bottlenecks. Some infrastructures stretch; others fracture.
What becomes increasingly valuable is structural elasticity the ability for system components to distribute pressure rather than absorb it at a single coordination point. Networks engineered with segmented validation, concurrent execution environments, and high-speed client propagation tend to retain stability even when transaction behavior becomes asymmetric.
The system design surrounding @Fogo Official reflects alignment with this elasticity model. SVM-based execution enables distributed computation, while multi-local consensus zoning fragments validation load across parallel environments. Client performance optimization reinforces communication efficiency, preventing synchronization lag as activity clusters.
Rather than framing performance around peak metrics, the infrastructure stack supporting $FOGO appears oriented toward maintaining composure when coordination stress intensifies. As markets evolve toward more synchronized on-chain behavior, architectural elasticity may become a defining valuation layer a trajectory increasingly associated with the engineering direction behind #fogo
Market attention often goes to liquidity, but base-layer execution is where structural edge forms. Fogo leverages #Solana VM compatibility to streamline developer migration while maintaining high-speed settlement.
It’s a technical positioning play rather than a narrative one. @Fogo Official $FOGO #fogo
It’s a technical positioning play rather than a narrative one. @Fogo Official $FOGO #fogo
We need more power:
Global data center power demand is now expected to rise to a record 1,596 terawatt-hours by 2035.
That would mark a +255% increase from 2025 levels.
The US is set to remain the leader in consumption with a +144% surge in demand over this period, to 430 terawatt-hours.
China's demand is projected to rise +255%, to 397 terawatt-hours, while European demand is expected to surge +303%, to 274 terawatt-hours.
New data centers coming online between now and 2030 will need more than 600 terawatt-hours of electricity.
This is enough to power ~60 million homes.
AI growth will be contingent on generating more power.
Global data center power demand is now expected to rise to a record 1,596 terawatt-hours by 2035.
That would mark a +255% increase from 2025 levels.
The US is set to remain the leader in consumption with a +144% surge in demand over this period, to 430 terawatt-hours.
China's demand is projected to rise +255%, to 397 terawatt-hours, while European demand is expected to surge +303%, to 274 terawatt-hours.
New data centers coming online between now and 2030 will need more than 600 terawatt-hours of electricity.
This is enough to power ~60 million homes.
AI growth will be contingent on generating more power.
#GOLD $20,000 CALLS SURGE DESPITE RECORD SELLOFF
Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction.
After COMEX gold futures briefly topped $5,600 an ounce in late January before suffering their largest one-day drop in decades, traders began accumulating December $15,000/$20,000 call spreads. The position has since grown to roughly 11,000 contracts, even with prices consolidating near $5,000.
Aakash Doshi of State Street Investment Management said the size of the trade is striking given its distance from current prices, likening it to a “cheap lottery ticket.” Gold has doubled since early 2024, fueled by speculative flows, geopolitical tensions, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and diversification away from currencies and sovereign bonds.
For the spread to expire in the money, prices would need to nearly triple by December. The structure limits upside but reduces upfront cost, allowing traders to exit on a sharp rally or hold to expiry if gold surpasses $15,000.
While spot prices remain far below those levels, the trades have lifted implied volatility for far-upside calls. Despite a recent easing in call skew, realized volatility remains elevated, leaving room for large price swings after January’s 11% plunge and October’s sharp correction to $4,000.
Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction.
After COMEX gold futures briefly topped $5,600 an ounce in late January before suffering their largest one-day drop in decades, traders began accumulating December $15,000/$20,000 call spreads. The position has since grown to roughly 11,000 contracts, even with prices consolidating near $5,000.
Aakash Doshi of State Street Investment Management said the size of the trade is striking given its distance from current prices, likening it to a “cheap lottery ticket.” Gold has doubled since early 2024, fueled by speculative flows, geopolitical tensions, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and diversification away from currencies and sovereign bonds.
For the spread to expire in the money, prices would need to nearly triple by December. The structure limits upside but reduces upfront cost, allowing traders to exit on a sharp rally or hold to expiry if gold surpasses $15,000.
While spot prices remain far below those levels, the trades have lifted implied volatility for far-upside calls. Despite a recent easing in call skew, realized volatility remains elevated, leaving room for large price swings after January’s 11% plunge and October’s sharp correction to $4,000.
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