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Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Pressure Builds – Will Gold Break $5,020 or Stall?

Key Points
• Gold remains capped below $5,000 as hawkish Federal Reserve minutes push bond yields and the U.S. dollar higher.

• Silver is forming a triangle pattern near $79; buyers are defending $72 support while eyeing a breakout toward $86.

• Upcoming PCE inflation data and speeches from Fed officials could shift rate-cut expectations and determine gold’s direction.

Market Overview

Despite a stronger dollar, Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stabilize after the previous session’s drop, trading around $4,990. However, it remains below the key $5,000 level.

The main reason gold is struggling to break above $5,000 is the hawkish tone in the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes.

This hawkish stance lifted U.S. Treasury yields and strengthened the dollar. However, the dollar’s rally is starting to slow as concerns about Federal Reserve independence are putting pressure on the currency.

Investors believe political interference could weaken the Fed’s ability to manage interest rates effectively. This could reduce confidence in the dollar and support gold prices.

Rising geopolitical tensions are also providing support for gold.

Strong U.S. Data and Hawkish Fed Minutes Boost the Dollar

The U.S. dollar climbed to a one-week high, mainly due to the hawkish Fed minutes. This development is negative for gold and positive for the dollar, keeping gold below $5,000.

The minutes revealed internal divisions among Fed officials:

• Some believe further rate cuts are appropriate if inflation continues to decline.

• Others worry that cutting rates too early could jeopardize the 2% inflation target.

Additionally, strong U.S. economic data reinforced dollar strength. January industrial production exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing sector recorded its best performance in nearly a year.

This pushed bond yields higher and further strengthened the dollar.

Despite this, markets still expect the Fed to cut rates three times this year.

Gold Supported by Global Tensions – Focus on Key U.S. Data

On the geopolitical front, U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine in Geneva ended without major progress, with disagreements over eastern Ukraine still unresolved.
Meanwhile, reports suggest the U.S. military could potentially prepare for action against Iran as early as this weekend. Such tensions typically increase uncertainty and drive investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

Traders are now focused on upcoming U.S. economic data:

• Thursday: Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed report, Pending Home Sales• Speeches from Federal Reserve officials
However, the most important event will be Friday’s PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could significantly shift rate-cut expectations.

Gold Technical Analysis (XAU/USD): $5,020 Target if $4,975 Holds

On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading near $5,017 after rebounding from the $4,975–$4,990 support zone. This area aligns with the trendline and the 200-period moving average near $4,950.

Recent candles show higher lows, signaling buying strength following the major drop to $4,685.
Price remains above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $4,859. The 50-period moving average near $4,990 is flattening, suggesting short-term consolidation.
• Key resistance levels: $5,141 (0.618 Fibonacci), then $5,303
• Break above $5,020: Potential for stronger bullish momentum
• Break below $4,975: Next targets at $4,859 and $4,685
Trading Idea:
Buy above $5,020 with a target of $5,141
Stop-loss: Below $4,975
Not financial advice.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver is trading near $78.99 on the 4-hour chart and is approaching a descending trendline from the $120 high.

However, price remains above the ascending trendline from $64, with higher lows forming — a sign of sustained buying pressure.
This price action forms a tightening triangle pattern. Recent upward moves have pushed silver back above $76, building momentum toward resistance at $79.21.
• The 50-period moving average near $79 is acting as resistance
• The 200-period moving average stands near $86

• Key support levels: $72, then $70
$XAU $XAG

#GOLD
#Silver
#Fed

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It’s worse than before the 2008 crisis.
And nobody seems to care.
The median home is now $415,000.
Five years ago it was $270,000.
That’s a 54% jump. Wages? Up 29%.
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You now need a household income of $127,000 just to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. The median household makes $80,000.
75% of homes on the market are unaffordable for a typical american family.
Three out of four homes. Out of reach.
Mortgage rates went from 2.7% to 6.3% in five years. That alone nearly doubled monthly payments even if prices stayed flat.
But they didn’t stay flat…
THEY EXPLODED.
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There’s a nationwide shortfall of 7.1 million homes.
Construction is slowing down, not speeding up.
Existing home sales in 2025 came in around 4.1 million. That’s one of the lowest totals in 30 years.
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