News Hunter BNB

It is timely to revisit the typical crypto market cycle, as Bitcoin continues to respect it with remarkable precision.

The macro top was confirmed in October, when $BTC tested the $126,000 zone, marking the current cycle ATH. Since that rejection, price has transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase, which structurally aligns with the early stages of a broader bear market cycle.

From a wave structure perspective, price action is developing an extended corrective formation (ABC). The initial decline from $126K to the $59K region completes Wave A. Current market behavior suggests a potential Wave B recovery toward the key supply and resistance band around $84,800–$90,000, where sellers are expected to reassert control.

Failure to reclaim and hold above this supply zone would likely trigger Wave C, with downside continuation toward the $34,000–$30,000 projected target area. This zone aligns with historical demand, prior cycle accumulation, and long-term value based interest making it a critical region for strategic accumulation, not panic.

Cycle analysis indicates that this corrective phase may extend into early 2027, setting the stage for the next major accumulation and recovery phase. While short- to mid-term volatility and downside risk remain valid, the broader macro structure continues to support higher prices long term, with expansion potential toward $200,000+ once the cycle reset completes.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

#bitcoin can drop below 40k later this year! But before that, in the short term, we may see a final drop to 58k, followed by a huge bear market rally to 85k. If you are confused, let's take a look at my prediction:

Short-term: 58k (wave A on the chart)
Mid-term: 85k (wave B on the chart)
Long-term: 40k (wave C on the chart)

From an investment point of view, after we hit 40k, that would be a great buying opportunity because Bitcoin will probably go to 200k in the next years!

Why can $BTC go to 58k in the immediate short term? There are 2 very important levels that are waiting to be hit. The first is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bear market on the non-LOG scale, and the second is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Bitcoin bounced off 60k, but we didn't hit these levels, so that means we probably are going to go down very soon. When Bitcoin hits 58, that would complete the wave (A) of the bear market.

After that we may see a big rise to 85k (wave B), when everyone will think that the bottom is in, and these people may invest all their money into the crypto market. But do not get caught! We want to wait for wave (C). Your entry point is at 40k or lower!

What about all the ETF investors? Let's take a look at the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF chart. To me it looks like a huge trap for all investors that invested in Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The banks and huge institutions will probably take all stop losses and liquidity below the current all-time low. Does it make sense to you?

Why do whales need your stop losses? They have an enormous amount of money, and they need your order to get "filled" into the crypto market. They cannot buy Bitcoin from no one. They need your orders to enter the crypto space. That's why they cannot send $BTC to the upside, and instead they need to manipulate the price and crash Bitcoin again and again. In other words, they will make much more money by sending the price of Bitcoin down!
#BTC #TrendingTopic

The stop-loss hunt event, the final move from the correction has been recovered. From a low of $1.11, $XRP is up 38%, now trading at $1.53, all within days.

Yesterday's session closed as a full green candle. It is as if the action after the 4th of February was deleted.

What to expect now, is this a bull trap? Are we set to experience lower prices right away?

Surely many people would say that a 38% move is more than enough, a dead cat bounce. Many people would call for a major bearish continuation, the forever down people—the eternal market crash. But, what about the chart?

Let me show you the daily MACD.

While you are seeing only a small portion, the reading reached recently was a true all-time low, the lowest ever. There is also a double-bottom and on top of that, a bullish cross. There is no going back now... XRP is going up.

XRPUSDT daily MACD:

When the RSI becomes overbought, the market tends to move down. This signal showed up around July 2025 and XRP did crash. See the daily RSI here:

When the RSI becomes oversold, the market tends to move up. This signal showed up recently and $XRP is now moving up.

The overbought condition led to months of bearish action. The oversold condition can lead to months of bullish action, it works both ways.

XRP is bullish. The bullish move is only getting started. Prepare for massive growth...

Keep in mind, $XRP does not move in isolation. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Dogecoin, Polygon, Sui, Toncoin and the rest of the market will also grow, likely to new all-time highs.
#xrp #BullishMomentum #TrendingTopic

Discipline Beats Talent (And It's Not Even Close)

Another educational breakdown for the crew.

If you're getting value from these, hit that follow button. Let's get into it.

The Uncomfortable Truth

You don't need to be the smartest person in the room to succeed in trading.

You don't need elite pattern recognition. You don't need to predict every move. You don't need a finance degree.

What you need is simpler: a plan and the discipline to follow it.

An average trader with a system they execute consistently will outperform a brilliant trader who wings it. Every single time. Over months. Over years.

Let me show you why.

Why Systems Beat Talent

Reason 1: Systems Remove Emotion

The talented trader without a system:

Spots a perfect setup. Enters with conviction. Price moves against them. "This is just noise, hold on." Down 5%. "Should I cut it? What if it bounces?" Down 8%. Exits in frustration. Next day, stock rips in their original direction.

They were right. But emotion made the exit decision. Emotion lost money.

The average trader with a plan:

Same setup. Same entry. Price moves against them. System says: "If price closes below X, exit." Price closes below X. Exit at 3% loss. No debate. No emotion.

They move on to the next setup. Three setups work that week. Net positive for the month.

The difference isn't skill. It's having rules and following them.

Reason 2: Systems Survive Drawdowns

Every trader hits losing streaks. Always. It's part of trading.

The talented trader without a system during drawdowns:
→ Questions everything they know
→ Changes their approach mid-streak
→ Takes bigger risks trying to recover quickly
→ Abandons good setups because confidence is shaken
→ Spirals into revenge trading

The average trader with a system during drawdowns:
→ Checks if they followed their rules (usually they did)
→ Reviews data showing similar streaks recovered before
→ Continues taking valid setups at proper size
→ Trusts the process because math supports it
→ Stays disciplined until probability swings back

The system is a psychological anchor. When emotions scream "change everything," the system says "this is normal, keep executing."

That anchor separates surviving drawdowns from blowing up during them.

Reason 3: Systems Create Repeatability

Talented traders often succeed through feel and intuition. The problem? Feel isn't transferable to tomorrow.

What worked in this market condition might not work in the next. When you operate on instinct, you can't identify what's actually working versus randomness.

The average trader with a system tracks:
→ Every entry and exit
→ Win rate over 50+ trades
→ Average risk/reward achieved
→ Which conditions favor their approach
→ Which conditions don't

After 100 trades, they know exactly what their edge is. Expected return per trade. Maximum drawdown threshold.

The talented trader has no data. Just wins and losses with no pattern. During losing streaks, they don't know if something's broken or if this is normal variance.

Without data, you can't improve. Without repeatability, you can't scale.

Real Comparison

Trader A: Experienced, No System
→ 8 years experience
→ Strong technical skills
→ Enters based on "feel"
→ No predetermined stops or targets
→ Position sizing varies by conviction

Results over 3 years: +19% total, high volatility, significant stress

Trader B: Average Skills, Strict System
→ 2 years experience
→ Adequate technical knowledge
→ Mechanical entry rules
→ Predetermined stops and targets
→ Fixed 1% risk per trade

Results over 3 years: +35% total, low volatility, minimal stress

Trader B outperformed with less experience because they had a repeatable process they executed consistently.

What Makes a Complete System?

A complete trading system includes:

Entry Rules: Specific technical conditions that must be met. No "it looks good" entries.

Exit Rules: Predetermined stop loss and profit target before entry. No mid-trade adjustments.

Position Sizing: Fixed percentage risk per trade (1-1.5%). Calculated before entry based on stop distance.

Risk Management: Maximum concurrent positions. Maximum portfolio risk. Rules for drawdowns.

Documentation: Every entry, exit, and reason recorded. Reviewed monthly for improvements.

Without all five, you don't have a system. You have guidelines that get violated when emotions run high.

The Discipline Problem

Creating a system is easy. Following it is hard.

Following it when you're down 5% on a position that "just needs one more day" is hard.

Following it when you're up 1.5R and tempted to hold for 3R (but your system says take partials at 2R) is hard.

Following it when your last three trades lost and you want to skip the next valid setup is hard.

How to build discipline:

Start small: Trade smallest positions while learning the system. Focus on execution, not profits.

Track everything: Write it down. Accountability matters.

Accept losses as data: Stopped trades aren't failures. They're the system working. Losses are the cost of business.

Celebrate process over outcomes: Did you follow your rules? That's a win regardless of result.

Review weekly: Look at execution, not P&L.

Over time, following the system becomes automatic. That's when results compound.

Why Talent Fails Without Systems

Talent gets you started. Discipline keeps you alive.

Brilliant traders blow up not because they can't read markets, but because they can't manage themselves.

They hit a winning streak and start risking 5% per trade instead of 1%. "I'm seeing clearly right now."

Three losses later, they're down 15%. Now they're trading emotionally, trying to recover. Edge disappears.

The average trader with a system never faces this. The system doesn't let them deviate. Win or lose, rules stay the same.

Boring consistency beats exciting volatility every time.

The Bottom Line

You don't need to be exceptional to succeed.

You need to be consistent.

An average trader executing a mediocre system flawlessly will outperform a great trader executing brilliantly sometimes and emotionally other times.

The math is simple:
→ Consistent execution + adequate edge = compounding gains
→ Inconsistent execution + great edge = random results

Build your system. Write down your rules. Follow them without exception.

That's the game.

Your talent doesn't matter if you can't control your behavior. Your system won't work if you don't follow it.

But an average trader with a plan they execute consistently?

That trader wins. Every time. Over years.

Be that trader.

Educational content only. Trading involves risk. Having a system does not guarantee profits. Discipline improves execution but cannot ensure positive outcomes. All traders must determine appropriate strategies based on their own risk tolerance and capital.
#TrendingTopic #RiskManagement #MarketRebound
$BTC $XRP $ETH

4 Steps to Spot a New Bull Cycle in any Stock

I spent years thinking that investing success required deep financial knowledge. After working in investment banking and earning complex finance certifications and a masters degree I assure you it does not. Finance is important but it's just part of the solution.

The market runs on probabilities.

The goal is to find companies with much to gain and very little to lose.

Today we will cover how to identify when a company is ending its bearish cycle to begin a powerful new bullish cycle.

📉 Cycle Endings

To detect a cycle ending we must evaluate 4 KEY factors.

A clear prior downtrend exists.
The company has solid prospects or interesting turnaround options despite recent struggles. Avoid extreme cases or frauds.
The price establishes a bottom in a logical zone. Previous volume existed there creating a new support level.
A bullish pattern emerges.

Let us look at Moderna as an example

MRNA Real Time example:

1. Clear prior downtrend

The chart speaks for itself. Since mid 2021 Moderna has fallen steadily wiping out almost 95% of its stock market value.

2. The company has good prospects

Only 2 out of 11 analysts covering the stock are pessimistic.

Most rate it a hold with little upside expected right now. In 2026 we will see a cancer therapy in partnership with Merck which could act as a massive catalyst. Additional improvements include widely used vaccines aggressive cost reductions and a promising high margin rare disease pipeline. All these factors lay the groundwork for a potential turnaround this year.

3. The price establishes a significant bottom

The market has started to price in these developments. We saw a 150% rally over 3 months before the current correction. This was driven primarily by Phase 3 results for the Merck partnered cancer treatment. These results validate their mRNA technology for non infectious applications and could revolutionize cancer treatments. Their combined flu and COVID vaccine also received approval.

Beyond these fundamental successes heavy short interest betting on bankruptcy triggered a short squeeze forcing bears to cover their positions.

The $23 support level was crucial. Nobody managed to break the original 2019 IPO price.

4. A bullish pattern emerges

After dropping 95% and finding support at the IPO price the stock formed a Multiple Bottom demonstrating the strength of the floor and cleanly breaking the $35 resistance zone.

That breakout sent the price surging to the $55 level where historical resistance pushed it back down to $35.

This created a great entry opportunity in the pullback. By placing a tight Stop Loss just inside the Multiple Bottom we can target a 50% short term profit and much larger medium term gains.

🤔 Great but, Is this the first time this has happened?

Of course not. We have seen the exact same setup on many other occasions like GROY :

FSS

OR DOCU

These patterns carry a very high probability of success. They usually offer a risk to reward ratio of at least 3 to 1. You must trust your tight Stop Loss and never risk more capital than necessary.

Have you spotted any other stock that could be now in the bottom of the cycle? Would love to read you in comments!
#LearningTogether #TrendingTopic #analysis

TL:DR
Bitcoin is finding a bottom but probably still has some downside. Strong hand are probably accumulating Bitcoin and especially alts.

Introduction
Bitcoin is flashing multiple accumulation signals. But this downtrend has been so gradual and lacking in volatility it barely feels like a bear market to me. Just like the last bull market didn't feel like a bull market to many people use to the traditional volatility of Bitcoin and crypto.

The Top chart
This is pretty simple.

The Weekly NVT is green. Every time its been green before bitcoin has been in a bottoming formation. The NTV is based on the quantity theory of money (QTM) and basically says bitcoin is undervalued at this price level given the number of transactions.
Price is below the slow-moving average of the Pi-Cycle Bottom. Pretty simple. The Pi-Cycle bottom was backwards engineered to find bitcoin bottoms and does a good job of at least finding the reversal structure when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA. Of course, in order for this to happen price has to be below both the fast and slow MA, like it is now.
Price is below the weekly Gaussian Channel. Strong hands grab crypto when bitcoin is below the gaussian channel

It is absolutely vital to recognize that both the Pi Cycle bottom hasn't flashed a bottom nor has the gaussian channel turned red. Since both of those have not happened yet its fair to assume we will have both more downside and longer time in the accumulation zone.

BTC Monthly Chart

Pretty simple. Strong hands accumulate when the D- is above the D+. We have fewer examples on this chart than our top chart but the signal is clear. We also easily see the Bollinger band width has reduced and price is close to finding support on the band. In previous bear markets price didn't touch the base of the band for support but it did the last bear market. So we might or might not see bitcoin touch the bottom of the band time around.

Chart experimental overload
The meat of the idea has already been articulated. But I have some other charts I am looking at and this is just for funsies to justify yolo'ing more money into alts.

ETHBTC
The least experimental chart. I have been posting on this since I recognized the double top years ago. Now we have an even bigger double bottom. Quite simply, so long as $ETH BTC is in this W pattern and hasn't reached the 1.618 I remain a macro bull on eth and alts. ETH$BTC will have times it might consolidate for years. I simply play the chart. It might stall at major fib levels and all time high. I will harvest profit.

bMonthly btcusd/silver
TBH bitcoin doesn't look like it is going to beat silver in the long run. It definitely looks like it is bouncing now. But its at a double top looking neckline to me as it comes out of a bearish rising wedge. I expect to see a bear flag develop at lower time frames.

ETHUSD/Silver

At Descending Triangle 1.618 Target. That's good enough for a bounce or a reversal.

Others.d/btc.d

Want an alt season? then others.d has to go up faster than btc.d And we see it finding support in this channel with a lot of hidden bullish divergence. I expect the price action to reverse at the 0.618 fibline of the channel or at the previous support of the head and shoulders neckline

others.d/silver
I was just experimenting with this chart and saw a pattern. I like patterns. This double top reached its target and now has hidden bullish divergence. And look at that green celery stick of a candle right on the 2.0 fib line.

I am riding others until I see that silver might reverse it (at the double top neckline).

Others/silver
One experimental chart lead to another. Others/silver looks like it might be creating a triangle it could break out of later. Even better if the triangle breaks out to the upside.

Others/Total3
This is another of my main alteason chart. Others is basically everything in the above the top 10 in marketcap. Total3 is everything but bitcoin and Ethereum. Altseason is really about everything above the top 10 going crazy. Crazier than the top 10 coins and definitely crazier than the top 2 coins.

Basically, bitcoin in accumulation and others/total3 painting a triangle suggest altseason is percolating. Waiting for a break out of the blue trendline.

Dxy+btc.d
Alt season generally needs a declining dollar index and dropping bitcoin dominance. So why not smash the two into one chart? Here we go, with a breakdown target. Now I don't have to check btc.d and dxy seperately (but I still do, of course).

Conclusion
I'm in alts. Way up the risk curve from the top 10.

Bitcoin in accumulation and silver pausing and reversing against alts gives permission for this. When BTC.d or BTC+DXY, or DXY or Silver start to show strength then I have to manage that by either rotating into btc or silver.

Sure its a bit complicated but that makes it fun.
#BTC #alcoinseason #TrendingTopic

What's good, crypto fam! 🚀

$XRP is at a critical juncture right now. Let me break down what's happening on the 1-hour chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.

The Setup

XRPUSD is trading at $1.4609 after bouncing from the green support zone around $1.35-$1.40. We're seeing a potential ABC correction pattern playing out - price spiked to $1.50 (B), dropped to support (A), and now we're waiting to see if (C) wave takes us lower or if this is just reaccumulation before the next leg up.

The big question: Is this a healthy pullback before ATH push, or are we heading to $1.25?

Why This Setup Matters

Bounced cleanly from green support zone (A) - buyers defending
Volume equilibrium (Z-Score near zero) = calm before the storm
MASSIVE institutional news - Brad Garlinghouse on CFTC committee
XLS-85 Token Escrow live on mainnet - game changer for institutions
Aviva partnership for tokenizing real-world assets
BUT - XRP down 25.8% YTD, worst performance since 2023

The News is MIXED (Critical Context)

Bullish catalysts:

Brad Garlinghouse appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee - HUGE
XLS-85 Token Escrow launched on XRPL mainnet (Feb 12) - institutional DeFi ready
Aviva Investors partnership - tokenizing RWAs on XRPL
Ripple expanding presence in UK and Europe
Coinbase, Robinhood CEOs also on CFTC committee - crypto legitimacy
Token escrow = stablecoins, RWAs, institutional settlement on XRPL
0.2 XRP reserve per escrowed asset = supply lock-up potential

Bearish/Risk factors:

XRP down 25.8% YTD - worst return since 2023
Price fell from $2.40 yearly high to $1.14 low
Declining channel on chart - bearish structure
Futures Open Interest dropped from $10.94B to $2.26B - weak confidence
Zero ETF inflows on Thursday - institutional demand cooling
Volume Z-Score near zero = consolidation, not momentum
Analysts warning of potential drop to $1.15-$1.25

Key Levels I'm Watching

Resistance:

$1.50 - Recent high / Wave (B) top
$1.54 - Friday's high (key breakout level)
$1.78 - Major resistance zone
$2.10 - Psychological level / next cycle target
$2.40 - 2026 yearly high

Support:

$1.40 - Current support / green zone (A) - CRITICAL
$1.35 - Lower green zone boundary (must hold)
$1.25-$1.35 - Wave (C) target / green support zone
$1.15 - Analyst target / danger zone
$1.12 - Friday's low / major support

My Game Plan

Bullish scenario: If $XRP holds the $1.35-$1.40 green zone and breaks above $1.50 with volume, we could see a rapid move to $1.54, then $1.78. The institutional news is MASSIVE - Brad on CFTC committee + XLS-85 live = legitimacy + utility. If institutions start deploying capital on XRPL (as analysts suggest), XRP could rocket. Target: $2.10+ retest.

Bearish scenario: If we lose $1.35 support, the ABC correction completes with Wave (C) dropping to $1.25-$1.30 green zone. Break below $1.25 = danger zone, target $1.15-$1.12. The YTD performance is brutal (-25.8%), and weak ETF flows + declining OI suggest institutions are waiting. Volume equilibrium = no momentum yet.

Most likely scenario: I think we consolidate between $1.35-$1.50 for a bit longer while the market digests the institutional news. The XLS-85 upgrade is HUGE but takes time to show impact. Watch for volume spike - that's your signal. If we hold $1.40 = accumulation. If we break $1.35 = Wave (C) to $1.25.

The Bottom Line

I'm cautiously BULLISH on fundamentals but NEUTRAL on technicals. The institutional developments are incredible - CFTC committee, XLS-85 escrow, Aviva partnership. This is the kind of news that changes trajectories long-term.

BUT the chart is weak. Declining channel, poor YTD performance, weak volume. The market needs TIME to absorb the news and for institutions to actually deploy capital.

My bias: If $1.35-$1.40 holds = long to $1.78-$2.10. If $1.35 breaks = wait for $1.25 retest.

The $1.35-$1.40 green zone is the line in the sand. Watch it like a hawk.

What do you think? Reaccumulation before ATH push or ABC correction to $1.25? Drop your take! 👇

#Xrp🔥🔥 #analysis #TrendingTopic