OnChainCollege

If this cycle follows the 2017 timing from the halving, the Bitcoin top would arrive roughly 3 months from now.

This would put the top at the end of September.

Data over Emotions.
Signal over Noise.

Read my recent Bitcoin article 'What is the 'Smart Money' doing?' below:

https://open.substack.com/pub/onchaincollege/p/what-is-the-smart-money-doing?r=1b0q8k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Price is over $108K and Long-Term Holder supply has been increasing, similar to the days before the price run up from $60K to $106K BTC.

It's Buckle Up time for Bitcoin.

Take a moment and study the circles on this chart.

The Bitcoin show goes on, folks.

Massive! Texas officially funds $10 million to buy Bitcoin, becoming the first US state to do so. 🚨

Here’s a snapshot of my newsletter from yesterday, before price bounced off this level and went on to gain $7K and counting.

Consider subscribing here: https://onchaincollege.substack.com/

When price approaches the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and bounces, it’s typically bullish. STHs are stepping in at their break-even, doubling down in anticipation of upside.

That’s exactly what we saw on yesterday’s dip.

Don’t take my word for it. Check the chart (yellow circles).

Either this is the most muted Bitcoin bull market in history or the explosive move is yet to happen.

Everyone can make their own judgment. My bets are placed already.

Patience is a Virtue with Bitcoin.

The show hasn't even started.

Bitcoin came within $100 of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and then bounced up $2K.

You love to see it 🎯

My deep dive on Bitcoin and what I'm seeing in the market and on the charts:
https://open.substack.com/pub/onchaincollege/p/bitcoins-inflection-point?r=1b0q8k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

All eyes on the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $98.3K, just $1K away from the current price of Bitcoin .

This level has historically been a key battleground. How price reacts here could shape the next major move for BTC.

$96K (blue) or $144K (orange)?

Whether we blast off to $144K or shake out weak hands below $100K, keep the bigger picture in mind.

This entire bull market, Bitcoin has been bouncing within this range and the odds still favor a move higher.

The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV has returned to the mean despite price nearing all-time highs.

The market has reset and looks primed for the next move.

Realized Loss levels are low, Realized Profit levels are decreasing, and Unrealized Profit/Loss levels are relatively muted for Bitcoin.

I dive deep into what this data is suggesting:
https://open.substack.com/pub/onchaincollege/p/profitloss-levels-shed-insights-about?r=1b0q8k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

In 16 years of Bitcoin, there have only been 32 days where you could’ve bought higher than today.

If you randomly bought BTC on any day, you'd be in profit 99.4% of the time.

And with price discovery still unfolding, that trend isn't slowing down.

Here’s how Bitcoin long-term holders have behaved during bull runs:

• 2017 – LTH Supply ↓ as Price ↑
• 2021 – LTH Supply ↓ as Price ↑
• 2024 – LTH Supply ↓ during local tops
• 2025 – LTH Supply ↑ as Price climbs

Convicted holders are waiting for much higher prices.

Bitcoin STH MVRV is back near its support zone.

Historically:
• $27K → bounce
• $55K → bounce
• Now? $105K

If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.

Bitcoin & Directional Pulls

Just wrote a deep dive on the Bitcoin market.

This was a really good one. Enjoy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/onchaincollege/p/why-i-always-say-patience-is-a-virtue?r=1b0q8k&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true