Since Q4 2025, BTC has lagged most major asset classes.
Some market participants are pointing to a longer-term structural debate that goes beyond short-term price action.
Lost coins and quantum risk.
Roughly 3.5 to 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years are considered lost or permanently dormant, nearly 18% of total supply.
Markets treat those coins as permanently out of circulation.
But if quantum computing ever advanced enough to challenge older wallets with exposed public keys, even partially, that assumption could change over a long time horizon.
Now compare that to institutional demand.
Since 2020, institutions, ETFs, and corporates have accumulated roughly 2.5 to 3 million BTC combined.
The scale is similar.
If markets begin pricing even a small possibility of dormant supply returning one day, that changes forward supply expectations.
But here’s the counterpoint.
On-chain data shows 13 to 14 million BTC have already moved this cycle, the largest redistribution ever recorded.
Despite that massive sell-side liquidity, Bitcoin did not structurally collapse.
Quantum risk discussions mainly apply to certain older wallet types, not the entire network.
And developers are already researching quantum-resistant upgrades, though protocol changes take time.
Right now, the market is balancing two narratives:
A theoretical future supply overhang.
Versus a network that continues to harden over time.
U.S. inflation fell to 2.4% in January, below expectations and down from 2.7% in December.
• Monthly CPI rose just 0.2% • Core inflation held at 2.5% • Energy prices dropped 1.5%
Cooling shelter and food costs helped bring inflation closer to the Fed’s target, but consumers remain cautious as markets watch closely for possible rate cuts. 👀
Major California retirement funds like CalPERS and CalSTRS hold multi-million dollar positions in MicroStrategy #MSTR • CalPERS: ~448,157 MSTR shares : stake fluctuated from ~$144M to ~$80M amid market volatility • CalSTRS: ~258,785 shares : valued around ~$83M in its latest filing cycle
Official filings suggest California public retirement systems collectively hold far more than the ~$60M $BTC
Institutional Bitcoin exposure continues to grow 📈
🚨 COULD THIS BE THE BOTTOM FOR ETHEREUM? #BLACKROCK JUST MASSIVELY INCREASED ITS #BITMINE STAKE !
BlackRock has aggressively increased its position in #Bitmine Immersion Technologies $BMNR now holding + 9,049,912 shares ; a +165.6% jump from its previous quarterly filing. Based on the latest 13F-HR disclosures, the position is valued at roughly $246 million.
The move highlights growing institutional confidence in Bitmine’s Ethereum treasury strategy, with the company recently surpassing major holders to become the world’s largest corporate holder of #ETH
According to a February 13, 2026 report by Financial Times, President Trump is planning to scale back certain 2025 tariffs on steel and aluminum to tackle rising costs and an affordability crisis.
The administration is reviewing the list of products under the 50% levies, planning exemptions for specific items and halting new additions to the tariff lists.
Markets see this as a bullish signal, easing pressure on manufacturing and industrial sectors.