GEOPOLITICS | U.S. Faces Balance of Payments Crisis, Trump Announces New Tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump has declared that the United States is experiencing a "balance of payments" crisis. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting Trump's announcement of new 15% global tariffs as a response to this economic challenge. The tariffs are intended to address the trade imbalance and protect domestic industries.
Trump's decision comes amid ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties. The new tariffs are expected to impact various sectors, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses. The administration aims to reduce the trade deficit and strengthen the U.S. economy through these measures.
Critics argue that the tariffs could lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, further complicating international trade relations. The move has sparked debates among economists and policymakers about its potential effects on the global economy.
As the situation develops, stakeholders are closely monitoring the implications of the tariffs on both domestic and international markets. The administration remains firm in its stance, emphasizing the need for fair trade practices and economic stability.
President Trump just announced the official launch of a major US-Japan trade deal with some massive numbers attached. Here's what's included:
$550 billion investment from Japan into the United States Funding for an LNG (liquified natural gas) facility in Texas Funding for a gas power plant in Ohio Funding for a critical minerals plant in Georgia
This is huge for US infrastructure and the energy sector. Half a trillion dollars flowing from Japan into American projects - jobs, facilities, supply chain development.
For crypto people wondering why this matters - critical minerals are what go into batteries, electronics, mining hardware. Energy infrastructure affects mining costs. Trade deals this size shift global capital flows which eventually touch everything including digital assets.
Cryptocurrency Holders Urged to Secure Wallets Ahead of Spring Festival
Cryptocurrency holders are advised to dedicate 10 minutes to conduct a comprehensive security check on their wallets before the Spring Festival. According to NS3.AI, this precaution is crucial to ensure the safety of tokens while individuals enjoy time with family and friends during the holiday. The guidance is intended to help investors avoid common security risks that may occur due to distractions during festive periods.
U.S. Inflation Data Faces Scrutiny Amid Strong Employment Figures
The recent robust non-farm payroll data has significantly dampened expectations for a rate cut in March, according to Jin10. The strong employment figures have even pushed back predictions for the first rate cut of the year. As the market anticipates a moderate Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, questions arise about whether it can alter the current narrative surrounding interest rate adjustments. The CPI report is under intense scrutiny as investors and analysts assess its potential impact on monetary policy decisions.
but this Long pay Short, Short pay Long was a new feature. it wasn't there years back.
Justcryptopays
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Perpetual Futures vs Quarterly Futures: Which Offers the Better Edge?
In crypto derivatives trading, your edge doesn’t come from leverage alone it comes from structure. Two traders can hold the same directional bias on $BTC or Ethereum and end up with completely different results depending on the type of futures contract they choose. The debate between perpetual futures and quarterly futures isn’t about which is superior in general it’s about which provides the better advantage under specific market conditions.
What Are Perpetual Futures? Perpetual futures (commonly called perps) are derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on the price of an asset without owning it and without an expiration date. Unlike traditional futures, perpetual contracts can be held indefinitely, as long as the trader maintains sufficient margin. Key Features: No expiry date Funding rate mechanism High liquidity (especially in crypto) Ideal for short-term trading The Funding Rate Mechanism Since perpetual futures never expire, exchanges use a funding rate to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. If perps trade above spot: Longs pay shorts If perps trade below spot: Shorts pay longs Funding typically occurs every 8 hours. This creates a hidden cost that directly affects profitability especially during extended trends when funding can stay positive or negative for days. Perpetual futures dominate crypto markets because they offer flexibility, deep liquidity, and continuous exposure.
What Are Quarterly Futures? Quarterly futures are traditional futures contracts with a fixed expiration date, typically at the end of each financial quarter (March, June, September, December). When the contract expires, it settles automatically either in cash or crypto, depending on the platform. Key Features: Fixed expiry date No funding rate Often trade at premium (contango) or discount (backwardation) Preferred for structured positioning How Pricing Works Instead of funding payments, quarterly futures reflect market expectations directly in their price: In bullish markets contracts usually trade above spot (contango) In bearish markets contracts may trade below spot This difference between futures price and spot price is called the basis and it creates opportunities for arbitrage and structured strategies.
Structural Differences That Create Edge
1. Cost Structure Perpetual Futures: Variable funding cost Can become expensive in strong trends Less predictable over long holding periods Quarterly Futures: No recurring funding Cost is locked in via basis at entry More predictable for swing or position traders
2. Short-Term Trading Efficiency Perpetual contracts dominate intraday trading because: They track spot tightly Liquidity is deeper No concern about expiry Lower slippage in most cases
3. Trend Markets vs Sideways Markets In Strong Uptrends: Perpetual funding often turns highly positive. Long traders continuously pay shorts. Quarterly futures may trade at a premium, but that premium doesn’t increase endlessly like funding costs can. In Sideways Markets: Funding oscillates. Costs may be minimal. Perps often become more efficient.
4. Arbitrage & Institutional Edge Quarterly futures create structured opportunities: Cash-and-carry arbitrage Basis trading Calendar spreads Institutions often prefer quarterly contracts because: They offer predictable pricing No funding uncertainty Clear expiry structure Perpetuals are more retail-driven due to accessibility and simplicity.
5. Risk & Liquidation Dynamics Both contracts use leverage, but: Perpetual traders may suffer from funding spikes during volatile sentiment shifts. Quarterly traders face settlement risk at expiry but avoid funding distortions. Neither is inherently safer risk depends on leverage management.
So, Which Offers the Better Edge? It depends entirely on your strategy. Perpetual Futures Offer Better Edge If : You trade short-term volatility You scalp or day trade You need constant liquidity You actively monitor funding Quarterly Futures Offer Better Edge If: You hold multi-week positions You want predictable cost structure You trade basis or arbitrage You prefer institutional-style positioning
In conclusion Perpetual futures lead crypto trading volumes for a reason they’re flexible, highly liquid, and designed for continuous market exposure. At the same time, quarterly futures offer their own strategic advantages, especially in strong trending conditions or longer-term trades, where removing funding uncertainty can protect profitability. The real advantage isn’t committing to one contract type over the other. It’s understanding when each instrument makes more sense. Experienced traders adjust their tools to match the market environment. In derivatives trading, contract structure directly influences results and mastering that structure is where true edge is built. #CPIWatch
Perpetual Futures vs Quarterly Futures: Which Offers the Better Edge?
In crypto derivatives trading, your edge doesn’t come from leverage alone it comes from structure. Two traders can hold the same directional bias on $BTC or Ethereum and end up with completely different results depending on the type of futures contract they choose. The debate between perpetual futures and quarterly futures isn’t about which is superior in general it’s about which provides the better advantage under specific market conditions.
What Are Perpetual Futures? Perpetual futures (commonly called perps) are derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on the price of an asset without owning it and without an expiration date. Unlike traditional futures, perpetual contracts can be held indefinitely, as long as the trader maintains sufficient margin. Key Features: No expiry date Funding rate mechanism High liquidity (especially in crypto) Ideal for short-term trading The Funding Rate Mechanism Since perpetual futures never expire, exchanges use a funding rate to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. If perps trade above spot: Longs pay shorts If perps trade below spot: Shorts pay longs Funding typically occurs every 8 hours. This creates a hidden cost that directly affects profitability especially during extended trends when funding can stay positive or negative for days. Perpetual futures dominate crypto markets because they offer flexibility, deep liquidity, and continuous exposure.
What Are Quarterly Futures? Quarterly futures are traditional futures contracts with a fixed expiration date, typically at the end of each financial quarter (March, June, September, December). When the contract expires, it settles automatically either in cash or crypto, depending on the platform. Key Features: Fixed expiry date No funding rate Often trade at premium (contango) or discount (backwardation) Preferred for structured positioning How Pricing Works Instead of funding payments, quarterly futures reflect market expectations directly in their price: In bullish markets contracts usually trade above spot (contango) In bearish markets contracts may trade below spot This difference between futures price and spot price is called the basis and it creates opportunities for arbitrage and structured strategies.
Structural Differences That Create Edge
1. Cost Structure Perpetual Futures: Variable funding cost Can become expensive in strong trends Less predictable over long holding periods Quarterly Futures: No recurring funding Cost is locked in via basis at entry More predictable for swing or position traders
2. Short-Term Trading Efficiency Perpetual contracts dominate intraday trading because: They track spot tightly Liquidity is deeper No concern about expiry Lower slippage in most cases
3. Trend Markets vs Sideways Markets In Strong Uptrends: Perpetual funding often turns highly positive. Long traders continuously pay shorts. Quarterly futures may trade at a premium, but that premium doesn’t increase endlessly like funding costs can. In Sideways Markets: Funding oscillates. Costs may be minimal. Perps often become more efficient.
4. Arbitrage & Institutional Edge Quarterly futures create structured opportunities: Cash-and-carry arbitrage Basis trading Calendar spreads Institutions often prefer quarterly contracts because: They offer predictable pricing No funding uncertainty Clear expiry structure Perpetuals are more retail-driven due to accessibility and simplicity.
5. Risk & Liquidation Dynamics Both contracts use leverage, but: Perpetual traders may suffer from funding spikes during volatile sentiment shifts. Quarterly traders face settlement risk at expiry but avoid funding distortions. Neither is inherently safer risk depends on leverage management.
So, Which Offers the Better Edge? It depends entirely on your strategy. Perpetual Futures Offer Better Edge If : You trade short-term volatility You scalp or day trade You need constant liquidity You actively monitor funding Quarterly Futures Offer Better Edge If: You hold multi-week positions You want predictable cost structure You trade basis or arbitrage You prefer institutional-style positioning
In conclusion Perpetual futures lead crypto trading volumes for a reason they’re flexible, highly liquid, and designed for continuous market exposure. At the same time, quarterly futures offer their own strategic advantages, especially in strong trending conditions or longer-term trades, where removing funding uncertainty can protect profitability. The real advantage isn’t committing to one contract type over the other. It’s understanding when each instrument makes more sense. Experienced traders adjust their tools to match the market environment. In derivatives trading, contract structure directly influences results and mastering that structure is where true edge is built. #CPIWatch
Trump's Fed Chair Nominee May Be More Dovish Than Expected, Analyst Warns
Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha has cautioned investors that U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair might be more dovish than initially perceived. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting Guha's analysis that the nominee's policy stance could lean towards a more accommodative monetary approach. This perspective suggests that the nominee may prioritize economic growth and employment over inflation control, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions. Investors are advised to consider this possibility as they assess the implications of the nomination on financial markets.
White House to Host Cryptocurrency Meeting on Stablecoin Yields
A new round of cryptocurrency discussions is set to take place at the White House next Tuesday, focusing on stablecoin yield issues. According to Odaily, this meeting marks the second in a series and will be held at the staff level, without the presence of company CEOs. However, senior policy personnel from several banks will attend for the first time.
Sources indicate that major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have received invitations, with Citibank, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bank also likely to participate. Banking industry representatives will include the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, and the Independent Community Bankers of America.
The banking sector aims to limit cryptocurrency companies from paying interest to stablecoin holders, fearing that high-yield accounts could lead to deposit outflows and affect loan funding. Cryptocurrency firms argue that such restrictions would stifle competition and innovation. Scott Besant stated this week that deposit volatility is undesirable and efforts will be made to prevent stablecoin yield payments from causing deposit instability.
This meeting is related to the advancement of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act). Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Committee, has urged all parties to reach a consensus by the end of the month.
Why Fake Breakouts in Crypto Cluster Near Range Highs
Most fake breakouts don’t happen randomly. They happen where traders feel safest.
That place is the range high.
Why Range Highs Attract Traders
Range highs look clean. They’re obvious. They’re easy to define.
Traders see repeated rejections and assume the next break will be the real one. Stops get placed just below. Breakout buys stack just above.
From a liquidity perspective, it’s perfect.
Range highs concentrate:
Breakout entries
Stop losses
Liquidation levels
That’s not resistance. That’s fuel.
How Crypto Uses That Liquidity
Crypto markets don’t need to trend to hurt traders. They just need participation.
Price pushes slightly above the range. Breakout traders enter. Late shorts get stopped. Funding ticks up.
Then momentum stalls.
Once buying pressure slows, there’s no demand left — only trapped positions. Price slips back inside the range, and the unwind begins.
What looked like strength was actually exhaustion.
The Role of Leverage
Leverage makes fake breakouts sharper in crypto.
Because positions are oversized, price doesn’t need to reverse far to cause damage. Liquidations cascade quickly. What started as a small failure turns into a fast drop.
That’s why fake breakouts in crypto feel violent and sudden.
How to Read Real vs Fake
A real breakout usually shows:
Acceptance above the range, not instant rejection
Spot CVD supporting the move
Open interest growing slowly or staying flat
Pullbacks holding above prior resistance
A fake breakout shows:
Fast push, no follow-through
Perp-led volume
Rising funding
Immediate rejection back into the range
Context decides everything.
What Professionals Do Differently
They don’t buy the first break. They wait for acceptance.
If price can hold above the range without urgency, the move is real. If it needs speed and leverage, it’s likely a trap.
Fake breakouts exist to create participation. Real breakouts exist to create continuation.
Crypto rewards those who can tell the difference — and ignore the rest.
Japanese Prime Minister Clarifies Remarks on Yen Depreciation
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi clarified her recent comments on the depreciation of the yen, emphasizing the need for an economic system resilient to exchange rate fluctuations. According to Jin10, Takaichi stated on her social media platform X that she did not imply that a strong yen is beneficial or a weak yen is detrimental. Instead, she advocated for building a robust economic structure capable of withstanding currency volatility.Takaichi's clarification followed her remarks made on Saturday in Kanagawa Prefecture while campaigning for Liberal Democratic Party candidate Taishiro Yamaji. During the event, she mentioned that although the depreciation of the yen is often viewed negatively, it presents a significant opportunity for the export sector. She further noted that the weaker yen provides a buffer for the automotive industry against U.S. tariffs, offering substantial assistance.
Bro, if market remain on the floor, it will not fall again. today it will rise to fall tommorow.
BNB_holder_
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🚨💥BREAKING NEWS — NOVEMBER 1 🇺🇸🇨🇳⚡ President Donald Trump Drops a Major Trade Bombshell! 💥 Global markets are surging after President Donald Trump announced a dramatic softening in trade policy toward China — a move signaling the most significant U.S.–China thaw in years. 📊 Key Announcements: 🇨🇳 Tariffs on Chinese goods cut by 10% — from 57% → 47% 📉 💊 Fentanyl-related tariffs reduced to 10% (from 20%) 🤝 A long-term trade agreement reportedly in final negotiations 🌾 U.S. soybean imports to resume immediately 🚢 ⛏️ Rare earth export controls paused for one year 📈 Market Reaction: Analysts say this breakthrough could revitalize global markets, ease inflation pressures, and boost trade flows across Asia and the U.S. 💸🔥 Stocks in both nations jumped on the news, while commodities and tech sectors saw a wave of bullish momentum. 💬 Experts call it a “historic reset” — a turning point where cooperation replaces confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. 🌏✨ $XRP {future}(XRPUSDT) $TRUMP {future}(TRUMPUSDT)
🚨 Will Powell’s Speech Spark the Next Crypto Rally or Crash? 💥When & Where to Watch?
🏦 All Eyes on the Fed
Crypto traders are holding their breath as Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver his long-awaited speech today following the FOMC meeting. The markets are betting ~99.9% chance on a 25 bps rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool — a move that could jolt Bitcoin and altcoins in either direction. ⚖️
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains neutral at 51, showing traders are in “wait-and-see” mode before Powell’s remarks.
📊 What’s Next?
A rate cut could ignite a fresh rally, as lower borrowing costs often fuel risk assets like crypto. 💫 But if Powell surprises with no cut, expect a wave of short-term volatility — and potential liquidations across leveraged positions (already $521M today). 💥
⏰ When & Where to Watch?
📅 FOMC Policy Statement: 6:00 p.m. UTC 🎙️ Powell Press Conference: 6:30 p.m. UTC 📺 Live on: federalreserve.gov & Fed’s YouTube channel
🧭 Bottom Line: The next few hours could define crypto’s November trend — rally or retrace, Powell holds the key. 🔑💰
BE CAUTIOUS In the coming days, Bitcoin will retest $120k and above but before that, there will be a pullback to around $109k and below. so let's be guided.
The crypto market isn’t moving much, and one of the main reasons is that people have lost interest in it. Many are frustrated some have already liquidated, while others are still stuck in losses. Those in losses are just waiting for the market to reach their breakeven point so they can exit and leave crypto for good.
I personally know many people who have either already quit or are planning to. Even today, I met a crypto trader who doesn’t know that I’m still active in crypto he only knows that I used to be. He told me, “ This market is useless. I’m just waiting for my losses to recover, and then I’m done with it.
That’s the kind of sentiment people have about crypto right now.
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