Tomaire

$BTC
If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin doesn’t see $120K until 2028.

And what I fear the most?

This cycle is NOT DIFFERENT in terms of price action.

Let that sink in.

1️⃣ PHASE ONE: FIRST TOP → SHOCK

March 2021.
Bitcoin prints its first major top.

Momentum overheated.
Retail euphoric.
RSI stretched.

Then came the correction.

Fast forward.

December 2024.
First top of this cycle.

Again, overheated conditions.
Again, stretched RSI.
Again, sharp reset.

Same structure. Different year.

The market always cools off after vertical expansion.
That hasn’t changed.

2️⃣ PHASE TWO: SECOND TOP → DISTRIBUTION

October 2021.
Bitcoin pushes to a second top.

It looks strong.
It feels bullish.
But momentum is already weaker than the first peak.

Then the “depressing weeks of red” begin.

Slow bleed. Lower highs. Emotional exhaustion.

Now look at October 2025.

Second top again.

And what do we see?

Momentum divergence.
RSI weaker than the first peak.
Price rejection.

Once again, distribution.

History doesn’t repeat perfectly.

But it rhymes almost uncomfortably.

3️⃣ PHASE THREE: THE BORING BASE

After the 2021 second top, BTC didn’t crash instantly into a new cycle.

It compressed.

RSI reset into bear-market zones.

Only after that reset did the real macro reversal begin.

Now in 2026, we are in that same compression phase.

Weekly RSI is sitting near levels that historically mark exhaustion.
Price is hovering around prior ATH instead of collapsing.

This phase feels the worst because nothing exciting happens.

But structurally, this is where cycles rebuild.

4️⃣ THE 30-MONTH REALITY

2021 peak → 2024 ATH breakout = ~30 months.

Time was the real catalyst.

If we mirror that timeline from the October 2025 second top, expansion doesn’t happen instantly.

It stretches toward 2027–2028.

Which aligns with that projected $120K zone on the right side of the chart.

Not because of hope.

Because of historical rhythm.

Every cycle has:

• Euphoria
• Double top distribution
• Weeks of red
• Momentum reset
• Boring base
• Delayed expansion

We are currently between “weeks of red” and “base building.”

And if this cycle is not different in price behavior

Then the real move isn’t behind us.

It’s just not scheduled for tomorrow.

The uncomfortable truth?

Bitcoin may simply be doing what it has always done.

And that means patience now and expansion later.
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The year 2025 witnessed an unprecedented explosion in the Crypto AI trend, but as the noise fades, 2026 is the time for the market to purify and identify the true builders. The latest comprehensive overview, updated in February 2026, clearly classifies projects based on market capitalization, revealing who is still standing firm after the frenzy.
{future}(NEARUSDT)

🔸 The "Big Cap" Elite Market Cap > $1 Billion USD:
These are the core infrastructure platforms, serving as the backbone for the decentralized AI ecosystem.At the center of the map are familiar names like ICP, $NEAR , and $TAO .Maintaining a market cap above $1 billion USD shows these protocols have moved past the experimental stage and are affirming their real-world value in providing compute and data infrastructure.
🔸 The Mid-Cap Potential Market Cap > $500 Million USD:
The second layer focuses heavily on DePIN and storage/compute solutions.Prominent names include RNDR, Arweave, ionet, Aethir, and Theta Network.This group demonstrates that demand for hardware resources for AI remains a primary growth driver.
🔸 The "Rising Stars" Market Cap > $100 Million & > $50 Million USD:
The outer rings are where specific applications, data protocols, and ambitious emerging projects gather.Above $100 million USD, we see Virtuals Protocol, Arkham, AIOZ Network, Story, Pippin, and OG.Projects like Grass and Chutes are beginning to establish a foothold.
The February 2026 picture shows that capital hasn't disappeared but is shifting into projects with real products. Are you holding tokens from the "Safe" group or betting on the growth potential of outer layer projects?
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.

It is timely to revisit the typical crypto market cycle, as Bitcoin continues to respect it with remarkable precision.

The macro top was confirmed in October, when $BTC tested the $126,000 zone, marking the current cycle ATH. Since that rejection, price has transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase, which structurally aligns with the early stages of a broader bear market cycle.

From a wave structure perspective, price action is developing an extended corrective formation (ABC). The initial decline from $126K to the $59K region completes Wave A. Current market behavior suggests a potential Wave B recovery toward the key supply and resistance band around $84,800–$90,000, where sellers are expected to reassert control.

Failure to reclaim and hold above this supply zone would likely trigger Wave C, with downside continuation toward the $34,000–$30,000 projected target area. This zone aligns with historical demand, prior cycle accumulation, and long-term value based interest making it a critical region for strategic accumulation, not panic.

Cycle analysis indicates that this corrective phase may extend into early 2027, setting the stage for the next major accumulation and recovery phase. While short- to mid-term volatility and downside risk remain valid, the broader macro structure continues to support higher prices long term, with expansion potential toward $200,000+ once the cycle reset completes.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
{future}(BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin pulled back from 126K and is now sitting right on the 90K–92K area. That zone matters. It’s been defended before, and if the broader bull structure is going to stay intact, it needs to hold again.
This move doesn’t feel like random chop. Price is compressing after a strong run, and the market is waiting for confirmation.
Here’s how I’m looking at it:
As long as 90K holds, bulls still have control and another leg higher is on the table
A clean reclaim and hold above 103K would likely open the door to continuation
If 90K loses on a weekly close, I’d expect momentum to flip and a deeper pullback toward the 80K–85K range

Right now BTC is tight and indecisive. That usually resolves with expansion.
The next weekly close matters more than the intraday noise. I’m not guessing here — I’m watching how price behaves around 90K. That level will tell us a lot about what comes next.
The CME gaps most of us forgot, we should remember too...
This CME gap formed sep, 2024 most of us forgotten and why is it important? Because it's formed exactly similar to the last dip before the ATH of 126200.
The dip followed by the CME gap formed exactly similar now can be a hint that on a bigger timeframe this can happen again.
So short now??
That can be risky, bounce before a big dump can wipe you as we have a small CME gap around 100k I'll wait for price to move above it and any weakness from there can also make a head and shoulders pattern.
So waiting patiently for confirmation can give you better results in this market.