Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
On higher timeframe picture is clear - there is no way $BTC will grow anywhere till it wipe out stops under ~65k.
If pump to ~69-70k happens first, that will leave both CME gap and 65k stops behind, which is not very bullish in long term. Market will have to come back to pick them up. That may lead to a bloody scenario where BTC grows to upper CME gap at ~73k, grab liquidity and then dump back.
Lower CME gap reduced to 65575-65826 range (for Binance prices).
At the same time keep in mind that fear and greed index is at it's historical lows. And even Binance are buying here for their SAFU fund. So the bottom is near.
Alarm for #Ethereum cross VWAP VAL appeared on TG today - that happened at price ~2023. This dynamic level may act as support in case ETH find acceptance above. Last attempt to do so was during this weekend, but weekend PA doesn't count, so now is the first real attempt to grow above.
In case of another rejection (chart is still in downtrend, so chances for that are higher), we should see liquidity hunt at ~1922 and ~1885 pools. Big FVG remains at 1797-1828 zone and can be hunted on bigger volatility PA.
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M-20sma, VWAP VAL, 2080, 1926
$BTC haven't yet revisited Friday close for NY at ~68800, so it remains a "magnet" zone and nearest target for today.
Lower CME gap partially closed o yesterday's dip, but also remains open at 65575-66588 range. Second nearest is above at 72300-73056 (for Binance prices).
Chart remains within downtrend in a choppy consolidation on Daily. If market decide to hunt for bigger liquidity on the downside, it will push price to 65080 at least. Similar in size LP on the upside is above ~71430, but its a long way there.
⏰ TG alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
Wise Analyze
·
--
📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Nearest targets from yesterday's $BTC review at 70k and 67.3k were hit on the same day with exceptional precision 👌🏼
But yesterday was a bank holiday in US, so they didn't take part in this price action.
Friday close for NY was at ~68800. That will be the first "magnet" zone.
Next important zones are nearest CME gaps correlating with Binance chart at 65575-67250 and 72300-73056. These are "magnets" as well.
With Tuesday being "Monday" hard to forecast anything specific. I suggest to watch these main zones I've marked and act based on price action and volume there. This should be the safest approach at this stage.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
With Tuesday being "Monday" hard to forecast anything specific. I suggest to watch these main zones I've marked and act based on price action and volume there. This should be the safest approach at this stage.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
Wise Analyze
·
--
Ανατιμητική
📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Weekend pump-and-dump doesn’t count - $BTC closed the week where Friday closed. No fresh gaps, except a small weekend FVG near 70k.
LTF shows sideways consolidation inside a broader HTF downtrend. Four red weekly candles are losing momentum, hinting at choppy consolidation for a couple of months. If so, BTC could range roughly 63k–74k in that period.
Short term, a 70k revisit and a dip toward ~67.3k both look likely - sequence unclear. Bigger liquidity sits below 65080 and above 70940, better zones for heavier trades.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
$ETH remains within downtrend. In case price grows up first towards weekend FVG at 2028-2052 (correlates with developing VWAP VAL), that move should be watched for potential rejection and short entry.
If first move will be down, then nearest LPs are ~1922 and ~1885, while big FVG remains at 1797-1828 zone and can be hunted on bigger volatility PA.
Main strategy for today and this week - wait for liquidity hunt move and in case of high volume and long wicks consider entering trade in the opposite direction.
⏰ TG #Ethereum alarms set for: D/W/M-20sma, VWAP VAL, 1926
Weekend pump-and-dump doesn’t count - $BTC closed the week where Friday closed. No fresh gaps, except a small weekend FVG near 70k.
LTF shows sideways consolidation inside a broader HTF downtrend. Four red weekly candles are losing momentum, hinting at choppy consolidation for a couple of months. If so, BTC could range roughly 63k–74k in that period.
Short term, a 70k revisit and a dip toward ~67.3k both look likely - sequence unclear. Bigger liquidity sits below 65080 and above 70940, better zones for heavier trades.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
CME gap almost closed, just need one more small dip to ~64444 to cover it fully. But first move so far seems to be upwards. Watch 67.2-67.5k zone for rejection or breakout. Rejection has higher chances, since $BTC is within downtrend on this TF.
Flip to relatively bullish bias only after Bitcoin manage to grow above 68835. That is the minimum requirement, but it won't reverse the downtrend on its own. Reversal will take days and weeks of consolidation and redistribution of positions.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 64440.
Yesterday $BTC shown some serious volatility hitting both lower and upper targets. Today Fear&Greed dropped to 5. FIVE CARL! 😱 That is very bullish. If only chart would show the same. Unfortunately, downtrend remains valid, so early to state bottom or reversal.
Main strategy now is to watch the dips for longs while being cautious with shorts (cause F&G is 5!). US POC left at 66560 within FVG. That makes that zone very attractive for revisit. But that area doesn't hold much liquidity. So strong bounce there should be very bullish. If not, and market push for bigger LP, it should target ~65222 zone.
Upper liquidity around 68666 marks out the level that US session missed on yesterday's PA. UK pumped and dumped BTC before NY started trading. So they barely had a chance to sell above 68k. Once again I want to stress out that chart is in downtrend, so pumps are harder to do and easier to dump. Keep that in mind.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 65300, 63924.
$BTC followed my forecast and already tagged 68200 and 67000 ✅✅ Next extension target for this leg is ~65.3–66k. This idea is invalidated if price reclaims 69263 - until then, the bearish plan stays on.
Major liquidity sits below 61k - that’s for a bigger dump scenario, or a slow, extended retrace. Not calling lower targets yet. Step by step. Fear & Greed is at the floor, so I’m ready to flip bullish the moment the market gives a real signal — but not before.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 65300, 63924.
$BTC got rejected from October close (70321) again and now price formed something like Head&Shoulders pattern. If it expends, we should finally see the dip to 68200 / 67000 / 65300.
In case #Bitcoin manage to grow back above October close, most probably will continue higher to 72500-73000 LP. After that yet hard to predict or foresee.
This chart is broken with CME gaps all around. Nearest below down to 64810 - market might want to cover it before growing back up. That moment alone keeps me away from longs. But on the upside nearest gap is up to 73345, so that makes another scenario possible - first cover that gap and then go down for lower. Only time will show which scenario will be in play.
#Ethereum remains within downtrend. Got to see it grow towards 2200 and see reaction there before flipping bias. To keep these chances got to get a bullish reaction at ~1950 as well.
$BTC closed a small FVG and tagged the developing Year VWAP VAL, where price got rejected. Trend remains bearish, but extreme fear plus strong volume suggest consolidation is likely here.
Lower green dots may get swept today. Bigger liquidity sits below 60.8k - a risky zone that could trigger a deeper drop.
Upside, the first meaningful target is above 73k. If BTC pushes there, some recovery becomes realistic. Until then - premature.
I’ve barely traded since mid-January - market kept dumping while I slept and gave no clean short entries during my trading time. So I was mostly watching. Thinking of getting more active again.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 67250, 65300.
Fear & Greed at 9 🔥 Not proof of a bottom, but it suggests one may be forming in this zone. If you’re holding $BTC on spot, panic selling here rarely makes sense.
Today’s levels are LTF only - call it a bit of hopium after that 14k one-day drop.
Aside from extreme fear and strong buy volume near 59800, there’s little confirming a bottom. Trend remains down, no reversal signal yet - so lower prices stay possible. If another major dump hits, next HTF S/R sits around ~45k.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593.
Don't remember $BTC performed that bad. I clearly didn't expect it to go down without any bounces for so long. Even got liquidated on isolated margin long last week.
Now price has covered 4H FVG left from November 6th 2024. Closing the gap could be bullish, but I don't hope for anything bullish anymore, just waiting.
2024 Year candle body equilibrium at ~68150 - not an SR level, but important HTF mark. Next swing low from Nov 4th is at 66810 - that is in case price will keep on going down.
Monday’s $BTC range was 74555–79311 — Tokyo dumped, UK pumped, and US surprisingly did nothing. Price left inefficiency zones behind (marked with green dots) below 77300 and below 75700 and are worth watching on pullbacks. But I leave HTF key levels posted on Monday unchanged.
Yesterday I shared a cautiously bullish view, pointing to strong odds that this area forms a local bottom for weeks or even months. That doesn’t rule out another dip below 74457 if price quickly re-enters the range, but for now it looks more likely that such a dip comes after a small dead-cat bounce first.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 79311, 74457
When $BTC Fear & Greed is viewed together with price action, a divergence often appears before a reversal. If the index peaks and starts to decline while price is still printing higher highs, it’s a strong signal that a turn is near. The same logic applies in reverse: when price makes lower lows while the F&G index begins to rise.
Nearest high liquidity zone for upside move starts above 84k, while for downside liquidity hunt there are too many zones to cover and they are all relatively close. Marking higher timeframes levels below.
Won't forecast anything global, but I think sooner or later we should see a strong bullish impulse to cover some of gaps left behind. Friday low at CME was around 81210, so that is the nearest target for US open.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593
Institutions left $BTC at ~83800 and after that it hit 75.5k
It was most probable scenario, but the fact that it happened during the weekend increase the chances for price to come back on week open to cover the gap.
January close at 78706 will become strong HTF support/resistance level for the nearest months. It was a bearish candle, so February can keep that momentum and push price lower to 70-71k
As I wrote on Friday, that zone has high chances to become local bottom.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593
Wise Analyze
·
--
📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
The way it evolves looks like $BTC might be targeting stops under 80600 and after that liquidity pool around 77-78k. As I wrote yesterday, acceptance under Monthly 20sma is a HTF bearish sign. This week Bitcoin went down from ~90.6k to 81k. Pretty strong rejection.
Either price will continue dumping or make a bounce to broken trendline and go for bearish re-test of 86-87k. Can't guess the sequence, but if bounce first will look for a short there. And will be waiting with longs at 77-78k zone in any case.
Fear&Greed back to 16 - lows visited in November and December just before the bounces it made back then. So I wouldn't recommend shorting anywhere here (unless scalping), as for Daily timeframe #Bitcoin can be near a local bottom for the next 3-4 weeks.
⏰ TG alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 80600, 78400
The dump left several gaps behind. Those will be revisited in future. Nearest at 3060-3160. Might bounce from here, but we don't have any confirmation for that even on LTF yet.
Συνδεθείτε για να εξερευνήσετε περισσότερα περιεχόμενα
Εξερευνήστε τα τελευταία νέα για τα κρύπτο
⚡️ Συμμετέχετε στις πιο πρόσφατες συζητήσεις για τα κρύπτο
💬 Αλληλεπιδράστε με τους αγαπημένους σας δημιουργούς