@peruvian_bull $BTC the most powerful trading firm you've never heard of just got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. twice. on two different continents. and bitcoin is finally free because of it. Follow me for a sec: Jane Street Group is a quantitative trading firm based in New York. They don't have a CEO.
They operate, by their own description, like an "anarchist commune." They generated $24 billion in net trading revenue in just the first nine months of 2025, surpassing their entire 2024 haul of $20.5 billion. Their Q2 2025 alone was $10.1 billion, the single largest quarterly trading revenue any firm on Wall Street has ever posted. They are, by any measure, the most profitable trading operation on the planet. And this week, the Terraform Labs bankruptcy administrator filed a lawsuit in Manhattan federal court alleging that Jane Street used insider information to front-run the collapse of Terra Luna in May 2022, a collapse that wiped out $40 billion in value and set off a chain reaction that eventually took down Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
the allegation is breathtaking in its simplicity. On May 7, 2022, Terraform Labs quietly withdrew $150 million in UST from Curve3pool, a major decentralized liquidity pool. No public announcement. Just a silent pull of liquidity. Ten minutes later, a wallet linked to Jane Street withdrew $85 million from the same pool. ten. minutes.
the lawsuit alleges that a former Terraform intern named Bryce Pratt, who joined Jane Street as a full time employee in September 2021, established back-channel communications with his old colleagues at Terraform. he allegedly funneled material non-public information about Terraform's liquidity moves directly to the Jane Street trading desk.
the complaint names four defendants: Jane Street Group LLC, co-founder Robert Granieri, and employees Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang. the administrator's statement cuts to the bone: Jane Street made "trades that would have been impossible without inside information to which it had unique access." and here's where it gets worse. the lawsuit alleges that Jane Street's withdrawal helped trigger the depegging of UST, which sent the entire Terraform ecosystem into a death spiral. LUNA dropped from $80+ to near zero. $40 billion evaporated. regular people lost everything. retirement savings, college funds, lifetimes of work, gone in days. Jane Street's response? They called it "desperate" and "baseless." but here's the thing: this isn't their first rodeo. In July 2025, India's Securities and Exchange Board (SEBI) hit Jane Street with one of the largest market manipulation charges in the country's history. SEBI's investigation found that across 18 derivative expiry days between January 2023 and March 2025, Jane Street ran a textbook pump and dump on the Bank Nifty index.
the playbook was mechanical: morning: Jane Street's algorithms aggressively bought Bank Nifty component stocks and futures, driving the index up by 1% to 1.3%. on some days, SEBI found that Jane Street alone accounted for the ENTIRE positive price impact on the index. simultaneously, they loaded up on short options positions, mainly selling calls and buying puts, at ratios that were wildly out of proportion to their stock positions. SEBI found the options positions were 7.3 times larger in delta-equivalent terms than the stock and futures legs. that is not hedging. that is not arbitrage. that is directional manipulation with extra steps. afternoon: they reversed course. sold all the stocks they'd bought in the morning. the index dropped. the short options printed. rinse and repeat every expiry day. SEBI's assessment: ₹4,843 crore in illicit gains, roughly $580 million. they called Jane Street's behavior a "deliberately devised device to manipulate settlement prices." they noted that Jane Street continued the strategy even after the National Stock Exchange issued an explicit advisory warning in February 2025. SEBI's language was unusually harsh for a regulator: "the integrity of the market, and the faith of millions of small investors and traders, can no longer be held hostage to the machinations of such an untrustworthy actor." Jane Street was barred from Indian securities markets. they deposited the $560+ million into escrow and immediately appealed. as of today, the case is still being heard at India's Securities Appellate Tribunal.
now let's talk about bitcoin. since November 2025, bitcoin traders noticed something peculiar. every morning at approximately 10:00 AM Eastern Time, right at the U.S. equity market open, large sell volumes would hit BTC and related ETF shares. the pattern was eerily consistent. bitcoin would pump overnight during Asia and European sessions, then get slammed as soon as New York woke up.
(See here: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:f65a83ede094b:0-is-jane-street-manipulating-bitcoin-the-viral-theory-explained/ )
the numbers were significant. charts from December 2025 show BTC dropping from $89,700 to $87,700 within minutes on some days, wiping out $171 million in leveraged long positions before recovering. this happened on December 1, December 5, December 8, December 10, December 12, December 15, and repeatedly through January and February 2026.
crypto twitter called it the "10am slam." the finger pointing landed squarely on Jane Street, and for good reason. Jane Street is one of only four Authorized Participants for BlackRock's IBIT, the world's largest spot Bitcoin ETF. the other three are Virtu Americas, JP Morgan Securities, and Marex. as an AP, Jane Street has the unique ability to create and redeem ETF shares, which means they're directly plugged into the pipes that move bitcoin in and out of institutional wrappers.
their 13F filings confirm massive positioning. Jane Street held $5.7 billion in IBIT shares as of their Q3 2025 filing. they added another $276 million in Q4 2025, bringing their total to over 20 million shares worth roughly $790 million at year-end prices. at peak exposure they held nearly $2.5 billion in IBIT.
but here's what makes it suspect: while allegedly dumping spot BTC every morning, Jane Street simultaneously increased their MSTR (Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy) position by 473% in Q4 2025, accumulating 951,187 shares worth about $121 million. this was while other major funds like BlackRock and Vanguard were divesting billions in MSTR. think about that for a second. sell BTC at the open. crash the price. liquidate the leveraged longs. buy back cheaper. meanwhile, load up on the most leveraged Bitcoin proxy on the market for the inevitable recovery. the Glassnode co-founders, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, reignited this theory through their Negentropic account on X, connecting the algorithmic trading patterns to the Terraform lawsuit filing. the Milk Road account amplified it further, describing "persistent whispers" about institutional desks running a "very specific/shady playbook."
then the lawsuit dropped. and something remarkable happened. and now that the Terraform lawsuit was filed against Jane Street, the 10am slam... didn't happen. for the first time in months, bitcoin didn't dump at the U.S. open. instead, it rallied.
today, February 25, 2026, bitcoin surged over 3%, breaking through multiple resistance levels to trade above $68,000 after threatening to break below $60,000 just days ago. over $323 million in short positions were liquidated. the Stochastic RSI hit 100. ETF inflows recorded $257.7 million in a single day, the highest since early February. https://x.com/peruvian_bull/status/2026730420168192432?s=20 the pattern broke. now, I want to be careful here. correlation is not causation. there are multiple factors at play: Trump's State of the Union address, oversold technical conditions, short covering. the Fear & Greed Index was at 11, extreme fear, which often marks contrarian turning points. the RSI had fallen to 15.80, a reading not seen since the 2020 Covid crash, which preceded a 1,400% rally. but the timing is hard to ignore. rumors circulated on X that Jane Street was "forced to shut down their trading algos" following the lawsuit. Jane Street told Cointelegraph these were "baseless, opportunistic claims." whether they were forced to stop or chose to pause out of legal caution, the result was the same: the selling pressure evaporated.
here's what this really means for bitcoin. the spot Bitcoin ETFs were supposed to be the great equalizer. institutional access, regulated product, BlackRock's stamp of approval. and they have been enormously successful, IBIT alone has pulled in over $20 billion since launch. but the ETF structure introduced something that bitcoin was specifically designed to escape: trusted intermediaries with privileged access to the plumbing. when the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, they required cash-only creation and redemption. every time shares needed to be created or redeemed, someone had to buy or sell actual bitcoin. and the firms plugged into that process, the Authorized Participants, had a structural advantage over every other participant in the market. in September 2025, the SEC approved in-kind creation and redemption for IBIT, which means APs can now swap bitcoin directly for ETF shares without going through fiat. this gave Jane Street, Virtu, JP Morgan, and Marex even more direct control over the flow of bitcoin in and out of the largest institutional wrapper.
the 10am slam was, in its essence, a symptom of the same disease that has plagued gold markets for decades. I wrote about this in "The Gold Endgame Begins": paper trades against paper trades, where the institutions with the most access to the plumbing can move prices before the rest of the market even knows what happened. https://x.com/peruvian_bull/status/1778146092279861279?s=20 JPMorgan traders Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak were found guilty of spoofing in the precious metals futures market, a scheme that ran for eight years involving thousands of illegal trades. JPMorgan paid $920 million in settlement. Deutsche Bank paid $30 million for the same thing. UBS, HSBC, and six individual traders all faced CFTC charges for anti-spoofing violations. THE SAME PLAYBOOK. DIFFERENT ASSET. and every time, the firms called it "market making." "arbitrage." "hedging." the euphemisms are endless. the result is always the same: regular people get their faces ripped off while the insiders capture the spread. so where do we go from here? the broader structural picture hasn't changed. $4.5 billion in ETF outflows in the first eight weeks of 2026 looks scary, but Strategy (Saylor's company) just bought $39 million worth of BTC, representing 99% of all public company purchases during this period. the big players aren't selling. they're waiting for the algos to finish their work.
and maybe, just maybe, the algos are done. if Jane Street has been forced, either by legal exposure, regulatory scrutiny on multiple continents, or simple self-preservation, to pull back from its alleged daily selling program, that removes a persistent, structural headwind that has been pressing on bitcoin for four months. bitcoin was built for exactly this moment. a monetary system that doesn't depend on trusted intermediaries. that doesn't need authorized participants. that can't be front-run by a former intern's back-channel to a trading desk. but don't forget what got us here. the same firms that are supposed to be "making markets" and "providing liquidity" are the ones accused of front-running collapses, manipulating national stock indices, and running daily algorithmic sell programs against the very asset their ETFs are supposed to track. this is the system bitcoin was designed to replace.
Jane Street Group 是一家总部位于纽约的量化交易公司。他们没有 CEO,按他们自己的说法,运作方式像一个"无政府主义公社"。 原文 @peruvian_bull 你从未听说过的最强大交易公司,刚刚在两个大洲相继被抓住伸手进了“饼干罐”,而比特币也因此终于获得了自由。 他们在 2025 年前九个月创造了 240 亿美元的净交易收入,超过了 2024 年全年的 205 亿美元。仅 2025 年第二季度就达到 101 亿美元,是华尔街任何公司有史以来单季交易收入最高纪录。 无论从哪个角度衡量,他们都是地球上盈利能力最强的交易机构。 而就在本周,Terraform Labs 破产管理人在曼哈顿联邦法院提起诉讼,指控 Jane Street 利用内幕信息,提前知晓并在 2022 年 5 月 Terra Luna 崩溃前抢先交易。那次崩溃蒸发了 400 亿美元的市值,并引发连锁反应,最终拖垮了 Celsius、三箭资本和 FTX。
指控的简单粗暴令人瞠目结舌。 2022 年 5 月 7 日,Terraform Labs 悄悄从 Curve3pool(一个主要的去中心化流动性池)提取了 1.5 亿美元的 UST,没有任何公开通知,只是悄无声息地撤走了流动性。 十分钟后,一个与 Jane Street 关联的钱包从同一个池子里提取了 8500 万美元。 整整十分钟。
诉讼指控,一位名叫 Bryce Pratt 的前 Terraform 实习生,于 2021 年 9 月加入 Jane Street 成为全职员工后,与他在 Terraform 的前同事建立了私下沟通渠道。他据称将 Terraform 流动性操作的重大非公开信息直接传递给了 Jane Street 的交易台。
诉状列出了四名被告:Jane Street Group LLC、联合创始人 Robert Granieri,以及员工 Bryce Pratt 和 Michael Huang。 破产管理人的声明一针见血:Jane Street 所做的"交易,若没有其独家获取的内幕信息,根本不可能发生。" 更糟的是——诉讼还指控,Jane Street 的撤资行为帮助触发了 UST 的脱锚,从而将整个 Terraform 生态系统推入死亡螺旋。LUNA 从 80 美元以上跌至近乎归零,400 亿美元化为乌有。普通人失去了一切——退休储蓄、大学基金、一生的积蓄,在几天内灰飞烟灭。 Jane Street 的回应?他们称指控"走投无路"且"毫无根据"。 但问题是:这并不是他们第一次了。 2025 年 7 月,印度证券交易委员会(SEBI)对 Jane Street 发起了印度历史上最大规模市场操纵指控之一。SEBI 调查发现,在 2023 年 1 月至 2025 年 3 月间的 18 个衍生品到期日,Jane Street 对 Bank Nifty 指数实施了教科书式的拉高出货操作。
操盘手法机械如钟表: 早上:Jane Street 的算法积极买入 Bank Nifty 成分股和期货,将指数推高 1% 至 1.3%。某些日子,SEBI 发现 Jane Street 一家公司就贡献了该指数全部的正向价格影响。与此同时,他们大量建立空头期权头寸,主要是卖出看涨期权、买入看跌期权,其比例远远超出其股票头寸的正常范围。SEBI 发现,期权头寸的 delta 等值规模是股票和期货头寸的 7.3 倍。这不是对冲,不是套利,这是披着额外步骤外衣的方向性操纵。 下午:反向操作。卖出早上买入的所有股票,指数下跌,空头期权盈利。周而复始,每个到期日如此。 SEBI 的评估:非法获利 48.43 亿卢比,约合 5.8 亿美元。他们将 Jane Street 的行为定性为"蓄意设计的操纵结算价格的手段",并指出即使在 2025 年 2 月印度国家证券交易所明确发出警告公告后,Jane Street 仍继续该策略。 SEBI 措辞罕见地严厉:"市场的诚信,以及数百万小投资者和交易者的信任,再也不能被这种不可信赖的行为者的图谋所挟持。" Jane Street 被禁止参与印度证券市场。他们将超过 5.6 亿美元存入第三方托管账户,并立即提起上诉。截至今日,案件仍在印度证券上诉法庭审理中。 现在来谈谈比特币。 自 2025 年 11 月以来,比特币交易者注意到一个奇特现象:每天早上约美国东部时间上午 10 点,正好在美国股市开盘时,大量卖盘就会冲击 BTC 及相关 ETF 股票。这个规律诡异地一致——比特币在亚洲和欧洲交易时段夜间拉涨,一到纽约醒来就被猛砸。 参见: https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:f65a83ede094b:0-is-jane-street-manipulating-bitcoin-the-viral-theory-explained/
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