Is SOL going to trigger the next super cycle? Will funds take advantage of the dip to buy in? Let's analyze its risks and opportunities~
Is ecosystem activity able to drive up coin prices?
1. Institutional confidence is increasing
Goldman Sachs disclosed that it holds approximately $108 million in SOL, with $8.43 million inflow from ETF funds in a single day. Institutions are increasing their positions, which changes liquidity expectations. For the entire crypto market, this is a signal of funds returning to the public chain track, possibly pushing up short-term demand and valuation. It is expected that SOL will fluctuate between +5% and +10%, representing a phase of rebound driven by institutions rather than a trend reversal.
2. On-chain momentum is recovering
The activity level of the Solana ecosystem is increasing, with more NFT and AI applications. Pump.Fun accounts for 85.9% of the token creation volume, showing that developers are regaining confidence. An increase in daily on-chain trading volume will support market capitalization, but net fund inflows have recently been negative, and market sentiment remains cautious. Short-term adjustment risks are expected to remain between -3% and -8%, which belong to a volatile market during the liquidity recovery period.
3. Macro pressures persist
Strong non-farm employment data and a strong dollar put pressure on the crypto market, with the fear and greed index at only 12, indicating that the market is still in extreme fear territory. The Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance is not friendly to risk assets. The rebound space for SOL is limited to the range of $82 to $95, which is just a sentiment recovery rather than a cycle restart.
How to engage on the trading level?
Short term (1–7 days): Range trading and defensive rebound
Core logic: Institutional entry brings a “spring-like rebound,” but market risk appetite has not fully warmed up.
Specific path: Focus on the buying strength of SOL/USDT in the support range of 79.00–82.00 USDT. If it breaks down, it may continue to test 75.00 USDT; if it stabilizes, a short-term rebound target of 88.00–95.00 USDT can be attempted. For risk control, a stop loss can be set below 78.00 USDT.
Key observation: Pay attention to net fund flows and contract funding rates. If they turn positive and the long-short ratio remains above 2.5, it can confirm a buy signal.
Medium to long term: Ecosystem growth and valuation return
If ecosystem projects continue to expand and ETF inflows stabilize, mid-term layouts can be made in the range of 95.00–105.00 USDT, targeting the range of 120.00 USDT.
In summary: This is a process of emotional and liquidity repricing, not a signal for blind chasing of prices; discipline is more important than direction.
#solana $SOL