What key events happened during the three days of Consensus Hong Kong 2026?
The Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference will be held from February 10 to 12, 2026, at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, organized by CoinDesk. The conference will have over 10,000 to 15,000 participants from more than 100 countries, with over 350 speakers. Discussion highlights include stablecoins, RWA tokenization, the integration of AI and Web3, DeFi, regulatory frameworks, and institutional adoption. Please refer to the agenda preview compilation released by @137LabsCN before the event starts (https://x.com/137LabsCN/status/2020842374952595553). The following organizes the main events, policy announcements, and key speaker remarks over three days by date, based on public reports and on-site records.
1. BTC experienced severe fluctuations during the day: surged to 68,006.56 before retreating, dropping below 67,000 to 66,959.74, and earlier dipped to 65,992.09;
2. Binance responds to "24 hours outflow of 3.76 billion dollars": it's a problem with a third-party data source, expected to recover in 24–48 hours.
3. Tether: With the increase in USDT demand, expected to become one of the top ten buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds this year.
4. Rate cut expectations continue to shift: Citigroup expects the first rate cut in May; TD Securities has delayed from March to June;
5. Coingape: The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has risen to 84; Fear and Greed Index 10→9, and discusses the potential impact of the shutdown on BTC;
6. Coinbase launches AI tool: Aiming to "give any agent a wallet."
7. Trump: Meeting with Netanyahu was "very successful"; no clear decisions made except to continue negotiations with Iran.
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Some interpretations of the new Binance Alpha model Alpha Box
Recently, the Binance Alpha system has faced the problem of declining user participation, prompting @BinanceWallet to launch a new model called Alpha Box. The first phase of the event went live on 2026-02-11. This article will outline and interpret the background, mechanism, and potential impact of this model 👇
Issues faced by the Alpha system The Binance Alpha system rewards users through points, allowing them to receive airdrops for new projects. Initially, this method attracted a large number of users. However, after entering 2026, some issues began to arise, leading to a decline in active participation from some users.
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The 'Crypto Market Structure Bill' needs to pass this spring
2. #Robinhood (HOOD) Q4 earnings report misses expectations: Crypto revenue of $221 million, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; stock price fell about 8%-10% after hours
3. CryptoRank: Hashrate reportedly declines by about 20%, potentially triggering significant difficulty adjustments; some miners are shifting to AI data centers
4. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations: 21.6% chance of a 25bp rate cut in March; officials say rates may remain unchanged for a long time
5. #coinbase coin listing progress: #RAVE /DEEP/WAL goes live; UP has gone live; roadmap adds OPN
6. U.S. stocks and companies: S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.6%; Cloudflare (NET) performance and guidance highlights
7. Geopolitics: Axios reports Trump expected to hold a second round of U.S.-Iran talks next week and send a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East.
No more crazy switching between 20 tabs! Web3 Investment Research Assistant - Surf
Have you seen a popular project and want to quickly understand its fundamentals, but need to jump back and forth between multiple platforms like Twitter, Dune, Token Terminal, and Discord? You open ChatGPT to ask questions, only to get some outrageous answers, even fabricated funding information? An hour has passed, and you still haven't gained a clear judgment. What I want to share today is an investment research tool that I have found very useful after some time of use—it is changing the way many investors conduct research—Surf. The biggest difference between it and ChatGPT is that Surf is specifically optimized for the cryptocurrency field.
Consensus HK 2026 Guide: Must-Read for Web3 Attendees!
This guide comprehensively summarizes the core information of the Consensus Hong Kong 2026, a flagship conference in the Asia-Pacific region organized by CoinDesk. Time, agenda, stages, and guests—a piece to understand how to navigate this conference. The conference is scheduled to take place from February 10 to 12, 2026, at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre (HKCEC), and is expected to attract over 15,000 attendees from more than 100 countries. The guide will detail the forefront topics that the conference focuses on, including institutional adoption, DeFi, stablecoins, RWA tokenization, the integration of AI and blockchain, the Bitcoin ecosystem, and Asia-Pacific macro policies, as well as a detailed agenda divided by date. If this helps you, remember to like it.
1. South Korean exchange Bithumb's accounting/distribution error triggered a 'flash crash': a large amount of BTC was mistakenly recorded, and the BTC on the platform once dropped to about $55,000
2. Coinbase's collateralized lending product experienced the 'largest liquidation wave since launch': $170 million was liquidated in 7 days, with extreme scenarios potentially leading to liquidations of up to $600 million;
3. Coinbase International/Advanced will suspend multiple perpetual contract trades around February 20
4. U.S. stocks rebounded strongly: the S&P 500 saw an increase of about $1.1 trillion in market value in a single day, with S&P +2.1%, Nasdaq +2.3;
5. Russia's largest bank Sberbank is advancing 'crypto asset mortgage loans', with related legislation expected to be introduced by mid-2026
6. BTC experienced significant volatility during the day: after surging to 70,000—71,000, it fell back below 70,000 (USDT/USD basis);
7. Crypto-related U.S. stocks strengthened simultaneously: MSTR rose over 20% during the day, with institutions giving a target of $440
8. Prediction market activity is rising: Polymarket and Kalshi had multiple indicators reaching ATH in January, with a gap of only a few percentage points.
BTC 24H Market Deep Dive: Extreme Fear, Negative Rates, and Off-Market Premium
This article aims to thoroughly organize and analyze the recent market data performance, especially how various indicators within the market collectively depict a complex picture after significant price declines. In the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin market has experienced intense volatility, which is not merely a simple price correction, but a 'de-leveraging' process intertwined with multiple factors that profoundly affect market sentiment, capital flow, and traders' behavior patterns. 1. Market Overview: Intense fluctuations and significant declines within 24 hours
1. The cryptocurrency market has sharply declined and is concentrating on deleveraging: approximately $2.114 billion in liquidations across the network in the last 24 hours;
2. Bitwise submitted the S-1 registration statement for the Bitwise Uniswap ETF to the SEC;
3. Increasing signals for U.S. cryptocurrency legislation: the Senate is brewing to restart the market structure bill, and the Treasury Secretary is applying pressure;
4. The Russian bank has launched BTC-backed loans for the public;
5. Divergence in predictions between markets and institutional views: Polymarket bets on increasing downside probability, while JPM sets a long-term high target;
6. Coinbase launches Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Rainbow (RNBW) spot trading;
7. USDT OTC premium rises;
8. U.S. stocks and macro: Amazon's CAPEX guidance impacts stock prices, U.S. stock indices close lower.
A Brief Discussion on the U.S. Government "Shutdown": Simplifying Complex Politics
Recently, you may have frequently seen the term " #美国政府停摆 " in the news. For friends unfamiliar with American politics, this may sound a bit incredible: how can a country's government just shut down? To help everyone clarify, I have organized this simple note. I hope to explain the ins and outs of this matter in the simplest language. 1. What is a government "shutdown"? In simple terms, a government "shutdown" is like a family's "pocket money crisis." In the United States, the government needs money to operate (pay salaries, repair roads, maintain parks, etc.). But this money cannot be spent freely; it must be approved by Congress (the accountants) through a "spending bill." If the members of Congress argue and fail to pass this bill within the stipulated time, the government's account will run out of money.
1. The crypto market plummeted with high-intensity liquidations: #BTC once dropped below $72,000, with about $705 million liquidated in 24H;
2. #CME FedWatch: The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in March is about 90.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 25bp rate cut in June is about 46.0;
3. CFTC re-examines the regulatory and enforcement direction for "prediction markets/event contracts";
4. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: No authority to use taxpayer funds to buy/"rescue" Bitcoin; Congress clashes over "Bitcoin reserves";
5. #Vitalik transferred about $29 million in ETH: providing funding support for the Ethereum Foundation, and again proposing a major network "upgrade";
6. Precious metals retracement and capital flow: #Gold/#Silver plummeted, with China's four largest gold ETFs experiencing record net outflows in a single day.
Prediction Market Polymarket: The 'Pricing Power' of Global Consensus
This article aims to deeply analyze the latest developments of the leading Web3 prediction market - Polymarket, in a straightforward manner. It will comprehensively dissect how this platform defines the future paradigm of value discovery in information, from its performance as an 'oracle' in international current events to its strategies for compliance and tokenization in 2026, for everyone to learn from. If you still think Polymarket is just a website for 'betting on elections', then you are really out of touch. As of today in 2026, Polymarket has become the world's most sensitive 'traffic light'. While news still uses vague terms like 'possible' and 'probably', the market in pm has already provided the cold hard answers with real money.
1. Crypto market experiences overnight 'V-shaped' shock: #BTC / #ETH plummets quickly and rebounds, with liquidation scale expanding 2. #美国政府部分停摆结束 Partial 'shutdown' of the U.S. federal government ends: funding extended to September 30, DHS receives two weeks of funding first
3. BNB Chain launches #BAP standard and BAP-578, introducing the concept of 'Non-Fungible Agents (NFA)'
4. U.S. stocks and tech stocks weaken: S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.5%, Nvidia's intraday decline expands to about 5%
5. Aave DAO proposal: plans to shrink Aave V3 multi-chain deployment (Phase 1) and raise the threshold for adding new chains
6. On-chain monitoring: suspected large holder repays loans, transferring approximately 310,000 ETH to Binance in the past 3 days
7. U.S. Treasury reportedly investigates whether crypto platforms assist Iran in evading sanctions.
8. Rumors: Grayscale GDLC constituents may be adjusted, with BNB being pointed out as a replacement for AD
What is the recently hottest ERC-8004 in the community, aside from Moltbot?
This article organizes a recent hot topic in the market aside from Moltbot, 'ERC-8004'. With the mainnet deployment completed, this emerging Ethereum standard is attracting the attention of many developers, institutions, and investors. Let's explore its essence, similarities with the past hype of x402, as well as the current progress and noteworthy ecological dynamics. What is ERC-8004? How does it intersect with x402? In simple terms, ERC-8004 is an Ethereum standard, fully known as 'Trustless Agents', providing a decentralized discovery and interaction framework for autonomous AI agents through three on-chain registries - identity registry, reputation registry, and validation registry.
1. Trump claims the US and India have reached a trade agreement: proposes to reduce "reciprocal tariffs" on India from 25% to 18%, India plans to stop purchasing Russian oil and commits to buying over $500 billion in US products;
2. Partial US government shutdown may affect data releases: BLS may not be able to publish the January employment report on time;
3. Federal Reserve's Bostic: Tariffs pushing inflation still high, expects no rate cuts until 2026; just 1-2 more rate cuts needed to return to neutral;
4. White House cryptocurrency meeting focuses on stablecoin "yield/reward" controversy: cryptocurrency companies and banks negotiate market structure legislation; New York State Attorney General criticizes the GENIUS Act;
5. Musk plans to integrate "Space + AI": SpaceX and xAI reportedly advancing merger/acquisition through an all-stock deal, post-merger valuation around $1.25 trillion; Musk says they are in "deep negotiations";
6. Circle issues 750 million USDC on the Solana network;
7. BTC briefly drops below 78,000 USDT: lowest around 77,992, daily drop of approximately 1.34%.
Humans Observe AI Bots Creating Religions, Issuing Tokens, and Bickering: Is Moltbook Science Fiction or a Prelude to Disaster?
Today, I am sharing the recent buzz in the tech and crypto communities surrounding "Moltbook"—a social platform designed specifically for the OpenClaw Agent, reminiscent of Reddit. This article outlines the basic situation of Moltbook, its development process, the current scale of agent interactions, and the main evaluations from professionals. The content is based on public reports and discussions for interested friends to reference. What is Moltbook Moltbook is a social platform exclusively for AI agents, launched by entrepreneur Matt Schlicht at the end of January 2026. The platform allows AI agents created based on the OpenClaw framework to register, post, comment, like, and create sub-communities (submolts). Human users can only browse and cannot participate in any interactions. The core relies on OpenClaw (previously known as Clawdbot, Moltbot), which is an open-source AI agent tool that allows users to run agents locally and connect to the platform via API for autonomous interactions between agents.
1. BTC is oscillating downwards, approaching key price levels; total market capitalization has evaporated by 3.1% to $2.637 trillion in 24 hours;
2. The Trump administration escalates actions against Iran: some crypto exchanges are sanctioned along with Iranian officials;
3. CryptoQuant CEO: If MSTR does not significantly reduce its holdings, Bitcoin may struggle to experience a historically deep crash;
4. The cross-chain bridge CrossCurve is alleged to have been exploited for "fake news," resulting in a loss of approximately $3 million;
5. Senator Warren calls for an investigation into Trump-related "spy chief" crypto transactions;
6. Macroeconomic risk appetite weakens: US stock futures are down 1%, gold's initial drop has expanded to 3.5%, silver is down nearly 9%, and WTI is down 4%;
7. Today's Fear and Greed Index remains at 14, still in a state of "extreme fear";
8. Tom Lee stated during a podcast episode of "The Compound" this Friday that the current bear market was triggered by a pricing vulnerability in a certain CEX last October.
1. The crypto market collectively plummeted triggering a wave of liquidations: different statistics indicate approximately 1.6 billion to 2.5 billion dollars were liquidated;
2. Severe winter storms in the U.S. have increased electricity costs, leading miners to reduce output, with BTC hash rate retracting by about 12%;
3. "1011/Hyperunit Whales" had their ETH long positions fully liquidated on Hyperliquid, resulting in a loss of approximately 250 million dollars;
4. The Solana ecosystem's Step Finance treasury is suspected to have been hacked, with losses estimated between 27 million to 29 million dollars;
5. The call for reform of India's crypto tax system is rising: high tax burdens are said to drive trading to offshore platforms;
6. Bybit spot listing of Nietzschean Penguin (PENGUIN), and the launch of the Token Splash prize pool;
7. U.S. politics: House Democrats are not assisting in passing funding through a "suspension" method.