张不烦
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The current trend of Bitcoin is completely consistent with the trends of 2017 and 2021.
According to this chart, BTC will crash in 10 days.
Are you ready? #btc
According to this chart, BTC will crash in 10 days.
Are you ready? #btc
The market is in a state of disorderly fluctuations. Currently, it is still in a state of disorderly fluctuations.
张不烦
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Market Perspective
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
Market Perspective
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
Reflections on the Cycle
The following content mainly discusses the successes and failures of this cycle, the evolution of market logic, and views on future market trends.
1. Has the bull market ended?
From the perspective of price structure and the timing of declines, even if the bull market has not ended, it has 'temporarily' left us, entering an 'extended consolidation period'; in a pessimistic scenario, the market may enter a six-month to one-year adjustment according to the traditional four-year cycle logic, with a bottom likely around Q4 2026.
The possible scenarios lie between the two, with the ultimate bottoming time located between Q1 and Q4 next year.
In the short to medium term, a technical rebound similar to March 2022 may still occur, but the probability of BTC reaching a new high before January next year has significantly decreased.
1. Has the bull market ended?
From the perspective of price structure and the timing of declines, even if the bull market has not ended, it has 'temporarily' left us, entering an 'extended consolidation period'; in a pessimistic scenario, the market may enter a six-month to one-year adjustment according to the traditional four-year cycle logic, with a bottom likely around Q4 2026.
The possible scenarios lie between the two, with the ultimate bottoming time located between Q1 and Q4 next year.
In the short to medium term, a technical rebound similar to March 2022 may still occur, but the probability of BTC reaching a new high before January next year has significantly decreased.
Rare Bitcoin Signals Flash: Will a 220% Bitcoin Price Rebound Follow?
Multiple long-term Bitcoin valuation models indicate that BTC's drop to $60,000 has opened a rare discounted buying window. So, do traders and institutional investors agree with this assessment?
On Tuesday, the Bitcoin price operated below $69,000, further confirming the view that prices are primarily consolidating in the short term. The previous sell-off from $60,000 to the rebound at $72,000 has caused several BTC price indicators to fall into what analysts consider a deep value range, but whether market buyers will reach the same conclusion remains to be seen.
On Tuesday, the Bitcoin price operated below $69,000, further confirming the view that prices are primarily consolidating in the short term. The previous sell-off from $60,000 to the rebound at $72,000 has caused several BTC price indicators to fall into what analysts consider a deep value range, but whether market buyers will reach the same conclusion remains to be seen.
Since the 72K short liquidation, there have been continuous sell-offs on Binance.
So far, the ETF on Coinbase has absorbed some of the selling pressure.
$BTC is struggling to keep its head above 68K.
Who is selling? #btc
So far, the ETF on Coinbase has absorbed some of the selling pressure.
$BTC is struggling to keep its head above 68K.
Who is selling? #btc
In terms of percentage, $BTC is approaching its HTF macro bottom.
First, they will spread panic and negative news while artificially creating range fluctuations, causing the market to capitulate.
Only after that can we say... the real bottom has arrived.#何时抄底？
First, they will spread panic and negative news while artificially creating range fluctuations, causing the market to capitulate.
Only after that can we say... the real bottom has arrived.#何时抄底？
I looked and it seems to be around 73000 to 75000, each exchange will have about 500 BTC orders
If I were a market maker, I certainly wouldn't break above
I would just trade in the range, and if it can't hold, I would run.
Being between 71600-67450 would be pretty good #btc
If I were a market maker, I certainly wouldn't break above
I would just trade in the range, and if it can't hold, I would run.
Being between 71600-67450 would be pretty good #btc
Have we hit bottom?
The growth of stablecoins USDT and USDC has turned bearish.
Not so good.
Not so good.
Goldman Sachs disclosed its cryptocurrency holdings in a new document:
• $1.1 billion $BTC
• $1 billion $ETH
• $153 million $XRP
• $108 million and solutions
• $1.1 billion $BTC
• $1 billion $ETH
• $153 million $XRP
• $108 million and solutions
BTC is still in a downtrend 📉
The 4H retracement structure has not broken, and we will not look for a reversal until it stands back above 70k
Thoughts: Short on rebound
Target: 66k–67k#btc
The 4H retracement structure has not broken, and we will not look for a reversal until it stands back above 70k
Thoughts: Short on rebound
Target: 66k–67k#btc
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, the inflow of funds from new Bitcoin investors has turned negative, exacerbating early bear market conditions, as sell-offs aren’t being absorbed by new capital.
INSIGHT: Bitcoin new investor inflows have flipped negative, reinforcing early bear-market conditions as sell-offs aren’t being absorbed by fresh capital, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.
INSIGHT: Bitcoin new investor inflows have flipped negative, reinforcing early bear-market conditions as sell-offs aren’t being absorbed by fresh capital, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.
Brothers, I'm so anxious, Brother Ma Ji has started shorting! What should we do? Should we still short? Brother Ma Ji has blown his account more than 200 times, let him win once! #eth
The market data...
The two 400BTC contracts have been playing with the price all day...
The two 400BTC contracts have been playing with the price all day...
Perp is currently shorting.
Spot demand is declining.
This is a bearish signal for $BTC .
Spot demand is declining.
This is a bearish signal for $BTC .
It's that time again when the big pancake is a scam, and cryptocurrency is doomed, round after round.
BTC was unable to hold above the $70,000 level.
The next key area for Bitcoin is between $66,000 and $68,000; if Bitcoin falls below this area, the situation could get very bad. #btc
The next key area for Bitcoin is between $66,000 and $68,000; if Bitcoin falls below this area, the situation could get very bad. #btc
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