Professor Of Chart By S

Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.

This is not only about rate cuts.

Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.

But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.

Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.

So his plan could involve:

- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.

- A smaller overall balance sheet.

- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.

- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.

And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.

Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.

If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.

But it came with consequences.

Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.

Now fast forward to today.

U.S. debt levels are again near World War II levels relative to the economy. Interest payments alone are approaching $1 trillion per year. Even a small drop in long term yields would save the government tens of billions in financing costs. That fiscal pressure is why Warsh’s proposal is getting so much attention.

Other countries also tried something similar.

- Japan ran yield curve control from 2016 to 2024.

Its central bank ended up owning more than 50% of government bonds. Yields stayed low, but the yen weakened and bond market liquidity suffered.

- Australia tried a smaller version in 2020–2021.

When inflation surged, they were forced into a messy exit that hurt central bank credibility.

Across all these cases, the pattern was similar:

Borrowing costs stayed low. Liquidity stayed high. Currencies weakened. Exits were difficult.

If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto.

Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives. But bonds themselves could face volatility.

Less Fed support for long term yields combined with heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the yield curve and push term premiums higher and that's why this could become the most important structural shift in U.S. monetary policy since the 1940s yield curve control era.
#WarshFedPolicyOutlook $DOGE $XRP

This week has the potential to set the tone for markets well beyond the next few days. The spotlight is firmly on the U.S. labor market and inflation data, with earnings acting as a secondary driver rather than the main narrative.

At the core of it all is a simple question: Is the U.S. economy cooling fast enough for the Fed, or still running too hot?

The answer will come from jobs, wages, and CPI — and markets are positioned to react fast.

Why This Week Matters
Retail demand opens the week, but the real volatility is expected once labor and inflation data hit. Add ongoing funding negotiations in Washington and the lingering risk of a partial government shutdown, and the backdrop becomes even more sensitive. Any surprise can be amplified.

Day-by-Day Breakdown

Monday – Retail Demand Sets the Tone

December Retail Sales give the first read on consumer strength. Solid numbers reinforce growth resilience and keep pressure on interest rates. Weak data, on the other hand, would revive slowdown fears.

Tuesday – Consumption and Retail Trading Activity

U.S. Retail Sales help confirm demand trends, while Robinhood ($HOOD) earnings provide insight into retail investor participation and risk appetite across markets.

Wednesday – The Big One: Jobs Data 🔴 $ETH

The U.S. NFP Jobs Report is the week’s most important growth signal. Payroll growth, wage inflation, and labor force participation will directly shape expectations for rate cuts.

Alongside this, Cisco ($CSCO) earnings offer a window into enterprise spending and broader tech confidence.

Thursday – Labor Confirmation and Crypto Sentiment

Initial Jobless Claims help validate the labor trend seen in NFP. Existing Home Sales show how sensitive housing remains to high rates. Coinbase ($COIN) earnings will influence crypto-linked risk sentiment.

Friday – Inflation Decides the Narrative 🔴

The U.S. CPI report is the final and most critical checkpoint. Core and services inflation will matter more than the headline number, as they directly influence Fed policy and front-end rate pricing. $XRP

The Real Focus

This week isn’t about one data point — it’s about the combination of labor strength and inflation persistence.

Strong jobs + sticky inflation → rates stay higher for longerCooling labor + easing inflation → markets push harder on rate-cut expectations $BTC

Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s CPI are the decisive moments.

How they interact will determine whether markets lean into risk… or pull back sharply.
Fasten up. This is one of those weeks where macro takes full control.

#CPIdata #USInflationData #GoldSilverRally

Internet Computer ($ICP ) is one of the few large-cap crypto assets that already experienced a full hype cycle, a brutal reset, and years of quiet rebuilding.

After peaking near $750, $ICP went through one of the deepest drawdowns in crypto history. Speculators left. Noise faded. What remained was structure — and long-term positioning.

Now, as we move toward the 2026 market cycle, ICP is no longer trading on hype. It’s trading on time, compression, and asymmetry.

Why 2026 Matters for ICP

Cycles matter in crypto, and ICP has already paid the price early.

• Massive supply shock already absorbed

• Long accumulation range formed over multiple years

• Volatility compression at historically low levels

• Stronger hands replacing weak speculation

Assets that survive a full drawdown and spend years building a base tend to move differently when liquidity returns.
That’s how real re-pricing cycles begin.

The Structure Story

From a market structure perspective, $ICP is no longer in free fall — it’s in expansion preparation.

Higher lows are starting to form on higher timeframes. Selling pressure has clearly weakened compared to prior cycles. Each dip is being absorbed faster, which is a classic sign of distribution ending and accumulation taking control.

This doesn’t mean price explodes tomorrow. It means risk is shifting.

About the $750 ATH
Will #icp go straight back to $750? No market works like that.

But ATHs are not random numbers — they represent prior valuation zones where the market once agreed on price during peak liquidity. When cycles turn and narratives revive, those zones act like magnets, not guarantees.

A return toward that region would require:

• Sustained market-wide liquidity

• A full altcoin cycle

• ICP holding higher-timeframe structure

• Time — not emotion
If those conditions align, the upside asymmetry becomes obvious.

The Big Picture
#ICP. doesn’t need hype to move.

It needs patience and a cycle.

2026 may not be about instant fireworks — it may be about re-rating an asset that already survived its worst phase.

When Markets stop asking “why is it down so much?”

and start asking “why is it still standing?”

that’s when the real move begins.

The $750 question isn’t about hope.

It’s about whether the next cycle chooses to remember.

Truflation is showing US inflation near 0.68% while layoffs, credit defaults, and bankruptcies are all rising, yet the Fed still says the economy is strong.

If you look at the economy right now and compare it with what the Fed is saying publicly, there is a very clear disconnect building.

The Fed keeps repeating that the job market is still strong. But real data coming out from layoffs, hiring slowdowns, and wage trends is telling a different story.

We are already seeing cracks forming beneath the surface. The labor market is not collapsing overnight, but it is clearly weakening faster than what official statements suggest.

The same disconnect shows up in inflation data.

The Fed continues to say inflation is still sticky and not fully under control. But real time inflation trackers like Truflation are now showing inflation running close to 0.68%.
$XRP
That level is not signaling overheating.

It is signaling that price pressures are cooling rapidly and the economy is moving closer toward disinflation and potentially deflation if the trend continues.

And deflation is a much bigger risk than inflation. Inflation slows spending but deflation stops spending. When consumers expect prices to fall, they delay purchases, businesses cut production, margins shrink, and layoffs accelerate.

That is when economic slowdowns turn into deeper recessions.

Another area flashing warning signs is credit stress. Credit card delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are rising. Corporate credit stress is rising.

These are late cycle signals that usually appear when households and businesses are already struggling with higher rates.

Bankruptcies are also moving higher across sectors.

This shows that the cost of capital is starting to break weaker balance sheets. Small businesses and over-leveraged companies are feeling the pressure first but that pressure spreads if policy stays tight for too long.

So the bigger question becomes policy timing.

If inflation is already cooling…
If the labor market is already weakening…
If credit stress is already rising…

Then holding rates restrictive for too long can amplify the slowdown instead of stabilizing it.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Which means by the time the Fed reacts to confirmed weakness in lagging data, the damage is often already done.

That is the risk the market is starting to price in now. This is no longer just about inflation control.

It is about whether policy is now overtight relative to real-time economic conditions.

And if that is the case, then the next phase of the cycle will not be driven by inflation fears… It will be driven by growth fears and policy reversal expectations.

That is why the Is the Fed too late? question is starting to matter more for markets going into the next few months.

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #FedRateDecisions #FedRateCut