Eternel insatisfait

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Comes down to one very simple sentence: establish the bias we are in right now first (confirm if right or frame doubt if maybe wrong using sentiment), then find a trade based on that.
You see faults and cracks of avoiding this absolutely foundational rule all the time. Especially now, but also during the 80-85k range as we saw.
People calling for the bear market back in the 80-85k range, people still shorting this breakout and powerful high volume green now.
They are faults because succesful trading/investing comes down to knowing (anticipating) the bias in present time.
That's it. Right now, not sometime in the future, not in the past (in hindsight). What matters is now and the very mext move.
The very next move from the 80-85k range was not down (and so, it made absolutely no sense to call for a bear market even if true right there, because the timing was off). The right post wasn't "the bear market started". That is lazy and complacent. Anyone who read the market deeply and put in the hours, knew the right call was "another bottom just formed, we'll see later where it ends"
And so the bias was up, not down. And that is all that mattered.
Even if you call for a bearish retest. Well then, you have a bullish bias until complete, don't you?
Shorting before a bearish retest gets you rekt, as we have been seeing over and over.
So how do you get the right bias?
You must at all times know four things:
1️⃣Are we in a range?
If yes: bias = range
2️⃣Which way will it break
3️⃣Will it break soon? When will it break? (And will we start trending)
4️⃣If in a trend, when will it end?
Knowing these four, and you will know exactly when to trade the range (if 1️⃣ = yes and 3️⃣= no), when to trade the trend (if 3️⃣= yes and 2️⃣= known) and when the trend will end again (4️⃣).
That's all it takes to know the bias (range, trend up, trend down, yes, there are 3 biases, not 2)
We're seeing so much ignorance. Good low timeframe traders eating loss after loss because they found good entries in the range but their trades get chewed up now that we are in an uptrend (right after we entered our high timeframe long about 1 month ago at 85.2k).
And so they didn't see the uptrend coming.
We're still seeing those same faults occur. Continued shorts being rekt or selling being regretted.
Research bias first. Then research your entry.
And of course to find the right bias, use the right metrics and tools.
Wont disclose how right now nor here.
But what I just wrote, is the framework. Even the framework isn't understood on X right now.
And it never has been.
Research bias first, entry second. Not the other way around.

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