— The last time BTC entered the oversold zone according to Bollinger STH MVRV, the price subsequently increased by approximately +1900% — On February 6, 66.94 thousand BTC flowed into accumulation addresses — the largest influx in the current cycle — Estimated cost of mining — about $67k, and historically BTC rarely stays below this level
Cost is important because Bitcoin largely behaves like a commodity: prolonged trading below production costs usually reduces supply — weak miners leave, selling pressure decreases.
At the same time, a media pattern is noticeable: major publications tend to amplify negativity on declines and become more positive on increases. This reflects not so much analysis, but reaction to crowd sentiment.
— Oversold does not guarantee an immediate reversal — Macro factors and liquidity can still pressure the price — “Cost” levels are a model, not an exact turning point
It is most important to watch whether BTC is accumulating near key zones. The behavior of large players is often more important than headlines.
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1st They are showing a rebound, selling pressure has eased on Coinbase. They are trying to demonstrate a V-shaped reversal, but I suggest working only with stop losses (any long position at the moment is counter-trend, and there are places to take from and close out shorts).
2nd They have been doing this lately (letting the price go) to sell at a higher price, rather than at the low, and then moving on to the next test and closing out long positions.😄
The main idea is simple: ❌ another EVM + bridge = no longer an innovation.
Ethereum will provide increasingly more block space, and copy-paste L2s are losing their meaning. Only those survive who: • are deeply integrated with Ethereum • or offer something new: privacy, app-chains, ultra-low latency
Positioning is also important: — if a project cannot live without Ethereum → it's an Ethereum application — if it's a separate system → it shouldn't disguise itself as L2
The L2 market is waiting for filtering. And it has already begun.
Vitalik Buterin and ETH sales: what is important to understand
— In the last 2 days, ETH worth $3.3 million has been sold — The funds are directed to the Kanro charity fund, which finances healthcare research — A 4-day TWAP has been launched, during which an additional $7.3 million in ETH is planned to be sold
Sales are conducted through TWAP — a mechanism that reduces market pressure by distributing trades over time. This is not about exiting a position or changing the outlook on Ethereum, but rather a planned conversion of assets for the fund's expenses.
— strategic sales to finance projects — from panic or speculative exits from the market
Sale ≠ bearish signal if the goal and scale are understood.
— In the moment, the news may amplify the negative background — But in terms of volume, this is a negligible amount for the ETH market and does not change the overall structure
This is a technical and transparent operation, not a signal of distrust in Ethereum. The market's reaction here is more a question of psychology than fundamentals.