🚨 Tonight at 21:30, a heavyweight bomb! The CPI data is about to be revealed, who will be laughing in the end? Brothers, buckle up! 🇺🇸 January CPI data is about to be published. The current market is like the calm before the storm, the main players are waiting for this card to be played.
👇 Pay attention to these key expected values:
CPI year-on-year expectation: 2.5% (previous value 2.7%) — The market bets on a significant cooling of inflation!
Core CPI year-on-year expectation: 2.5% (previous value 2.6%)
Core CPI month-on-month expectation: 0.3% (previous value 0.2%)
Script predictions (suggest to bookmark):
Bullish script (🚀): If the actual value < 2.5%, inflation cools more than expected, interest rate cut expectations soar, the big pie is likely to surge directly, hitting the upper resistance level!
Bearish script (🩸): If the actual value > 2.7%, inflation rebounds, and the Federal Reserve turns hawkish, then we might see a wave of "waterfall" washout tonight, be careful with long positions.
Volatile script (〰️): If the data meets expectations (2.5%), there may be up and down spikes with a "painting door" market, a double kill for both bulls and bears before entering a volatile phase.
Operation suggestion: The moment the data is published will be extremely volatile; contract holders are advised to stay on the sidelines or hold light positions with stop-losses, don't bet your life savings on luck! Spot traders, hold steady and don't panic.
Do you think tonight will be a "big surge" or a "golden pit"? Leave your predictions in the comments!💰
Coinbase lost 667 million, Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 38%, and the 2025 Q4 financial report reveals the "growing pains" of the giants.
As BTC pulls back from $126,000, pure trading models are facing a valuation ceiling. Can they establish a new moat in 2026 relying on #Base , #RWA , and L2 infrastructure? This is not just a financial report, but a life-and-death battle for the migration of crypto finance from "casino" to "system."
In-depth analysis of traditional giants' "de-trading" transformation: 阅读全文
Traditional Giants' 'Performance Pain': The Warning from Coinbase and Robinhood's Q4 Financial Reports
As a long-term observer of quantitative trading and financial infrastructure, facing the Q4 financial reports of Coinbase and Robinhood in 2025, what I see is not only two sets of disappointing financial data but also a systemic 'de-trading' transformation pain that cryptocurrency trading platforms are experiencing. This is not an accidental performance Waterloo. When Bitcoin fell from its historical peak of $126,000 to nearly half in just a few weeks, retreating to the $60,000-$70,000 range, Wall Street's valuation logic for crypto assets was undergoing a fundamental shake-up. #Coinbase Q4 recorded a net loss of $667 million, ending the previous myth of eight consecutive quarters of profit. Although its subscription and services revenue has grown to $727 million, it remains difficult to offset the huge impact brought by market fluctuations.
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing intense washout in 2026. Standard Chartered Bank warns of the 'final surrender phase,' predicting a bearish BTC at $50,000; meanwhile, #JPMorgan remains optimistic, believing in strong support at $77,000.
Core Insights: Liquidity takeover narrative: The influence of the Federal Reserve's policy has fully overshadowed native narratives like the halving. Leverage liquidation: $260 million liquidated in 48 hours, and the market is undergoing a strong deleveraging. Institutional game: ETF outflows indicate risk-off sentiment, but the demand for compliant collateral remains a long-term cornerstone.
Is this the ultimate exit for retail investors, or the ticket for the next wave of institutional bull market?
The 'Last Washout' Prophecy: The Cold and Hot Clash Between Standard Chartered Bank and JPMorgan
On February 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, released a highly damaging report. He significantly cut the Bitcoin target price at the end of 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000 and threw out a chilling word for the market: Capitulation. Standard Chartered's judgment logic is mainly based on the collapse of two dimensions: The psychological defense line of ETF cost has collapsed: According to the latest data, the holdings of spot ETFs have flowed out nearly 100,000 BTC compared to the peak in October 2025. The more critical issue lies in the cost—ETF investors' average purchase price is around $90,000. When the price declines below $66,000, these institutional funds, once regarded as the 'long-term cornerstone,' are facing significant unrealized losses. Kendrick believes that institutions are not a monolith; when unrealized losses expand, selective hedging can lead to self-fulfilling selling pressure, causing Bitcoin to potentially pull back to $50,000, while Ethereum faces extreme risks of dropping to $1,400.
Walls and Bridges: The Compliance 'Double City' of Asia's RWA and the Institutional Breakthrough of Interest-Bearing Assets
On February 6, the People's Bank of China, in conjunction with eight ministries, issued a notice (on preventing and dealing with risks of virtual currencies and RWA tokenization) (i.e., 'Document No. 42'), which not only reiterated the ban on virtual currencies but also for the first time clearly included 'RWA (Real World Assets) tokenization' in the category of illegal financial activities, strictly prohibiting domestic institutions from engaging in such businesses. For a time, the exploration of RWA in the mainland market seemed to have been pressed to the stop button. However, just four days later on February 10, at the '2026 Asia Crypto Finance High-Level Closed-Door Forum' held in Hong Kong, Fosun Wealth Holdings' FinChain announced a deep strategic partnership with Avalanche and officially issued an interest-bearing stablecoin based on Asian compliant assets—FUSD.
The House of Representatives passed a resolution to terminate Trump's tariffs on Canada with a vote of 219 to 211.
What surprised the market the most was that, in the Republican-controlled House, 6 Republican members surprisingly voted in favor. This is an extremely rare public opposition during the 'Trump era'.
Although it is very likely that Trump will use his veto power to block this in the end, it sends a strong signal: the internal resistance to such 'radical tariff policies' has begun to surface.
This bill still has some distance to go before it is actually implemented, but the emotional struggle has already started. The prudent suggestion is to continue watching key support levels for BTC, and short-term operations can look for arbitrage opportunities arising from exchange rate fluctuations. #美国众议院终止特朗普加拿大关税
Non-farm employment: Actual recorded 130K, far exceeding the expected 66K. Although the data itself doubled, let’s not forget that the 2025 benchmark was significantly revised down by 862,000, which means that the past job market is actually “weaker” than we imagined.
Unemployment rate: Actual 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%.
Wage growth: Hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.3%, indicating that inflationary pressures are still present, and the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates as much as expected.
What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?
Short-term volatility: At the moment the data was released, BTC showed a significant spike. On one hand, better-than-expected employment is good for the dollar (bad for cryptocurrencies), while on the other hand, the significant downward revision of the benchmark weakens the dollar's strength.
“Digital gold” logic: Combined with #黄金白银反弹 , the market is digesting a logic of “the economy is resilient but long-term inflation is hard to reduce.” This is a long-term positive for BTC as an anti-inflation asset.
Currently, spot gold in London has stabilized at $5100 per ounce, with an intraday increase of over 1.5%; silver performed even better, soaring 6% towards the $86 mark. The core logic behind this rebound is very clear: the U.S. retail data for December was far below expectations, and concerns about an economic recession have directly raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year.
What signal does this send to us cryptocurrency traders?
Return of liquidity expectations: The major rebound in gold and silver is essentially a pre-pricing of 'dollar interest rate cuts'. As long as the expectations for Federal Reserve easing remain, the confidence in risk assets remains strong.
Correlation linkage: Although Bitcoin fluctuated around $69,000 today, historical experience tells us that when gold and silver first break through resistance levels, digital gold (BTC) usually follows closely behind.
Switch in risk aversion logic: Currently, the market is not only trading on interest rate cuts but also on long-term concerns about the credit system of the dollar. This narrative of 'de-dollarization' serves as a common engine for the rise of gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies. #黄金白银反弹
Option data from February 27: Both bulls and bears are engaged in a battle at the $70,000 level. 3,320 put options are like a ticking time bomb; once exercised, they will have to sell spot to hedge delta. The feeling at the end of the month is that it will be bouncing around in a range.
比特币万两
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Bitcoin maintains a high position, why is it not rising or falling? Is the double bottom difficult to form? It seems calm on the surface, but it has actually reached a critical point!
【Hot Topics】U.S. Retail "Stalling", Is Bitcoin Ready to Soar? 🚀 Last night, the U.S. December retail data (terrible data) was only 0.0%, far below the expected 0.4%. This indicates that Americans are "unable to buy", and weak consumer spending has become a fact.
💡Opinion: Bad news is good news!
Interest rate cut expectations rise: A soft economy forces the Federal Reserve to "dove", and the expectation of liquidity release is a strong support for $BTC .
U.S. Treasury Bonds Plunge: Safe-haven funds are looking for an exit, and the attractiveness of crypto assets has risen again.
Operational Advice: There will be short-term fluctuations, but "liquidity return" is the major trend. Don't be scared away by the data; as long as inflation doesn't rebound, this could be a good opportunity to position for interest rate cut expectations. Keep a close eye on support levels and avoid high leverage!
According to the latest Binance options chain data (contracts expiring on February 27), the market is releasing strong hedging signals:
📊 Core Observations:
1️⃣ Huge Put Barrier: The open interest for puts at $70,000 has surged to $9.3M, with a Delta absolute value of 0.54. This indicates that large capital has established a tight "defensive position" or hedging protection at this price level. 2️⃣ IV is at a relatively high level: ATM IV remains around 53%. Although price volatility has narrowed, option premiums are not cheap, reflecting the market's high expectations for a breakout within the next 16 days. 3️⃣ Gamma squeeze risk: Once BTC stabilizes above $70,000, the market makers originally protecting bearish positions will be forced to close their positions, potentially triggering a explosive rise towards $75,000 (the maximum holding area).
💡 Actionable Suggestions:
Conservative: Consider constructing a Bull Put Spread (sell $68k / buy $66k). Capitalize on high IV to earn premiums while leveraging the dense support levels below.
Aggressive: If BTC breaks above $69,500 with volume, a small position can be taken in a Call calendar spread to capture Gamma gains targeting $75,000.
Risk Warning: Be aware of the accelerated Theta decay brought by the 16-day expiry, and non-trend players should avoid naked buying of OTM Calls.
Crypto.com spends $70 million to acquire AI.com, ERC-8004 supports AI Agent infrastructure
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek plans to showcase a $70 million ace in the Super Bowl halftime advertisement — AI.com. This news has rapidly swept through the financial and tech circles in the past 48 hours. This is not only a record-breaking domain acquisition (surpassing the $30 million record of Voice.com), but also a highly symbolic 'oath': this cryptocurrency giant, which once gained fame by sponsoring arenas and inviting Hollywood stars, is now shifting its massive capital and traffic machine from serving 'human retail investors' to fully serving 'AI intelligences'.
The "King of Budget Alternatives" in the Weight Loss Drug Market Has Fallen? 📉 $HIMS's stock price faced a bloodbath today, plunging 23% at one point!
Just last week, Hims & Hers officially announced the launch of the oral Wegovy combination drug for only $49, which was thought to be a positive development for the masses, but instead drew a double whammy of "regulation + legal" challenges:
1️⃣ FDA Warning: Clearly stated that it will take "decisive action" to limit the large-scale sale of unapproved GLP-1 combination drugs. 2️⃣ $NVO (Novo Nordisk) Lawsuit: Countering patent infringement, vowing to kick $HIMS out of the market.
Although $HIMS responded that this is the giants "weaponizing the judicial system" to deprive patients of their choices, the market has already given an answer: short sellers are flooding in, and multiple investment banks have downgraded their ratings.
Crisis or Feast? A Perspective on the Risks of Japanese Bonds and New Logic of Global Asset Allocation under Nikkei 57,000
Written by: Max.S & 章魚同學Nikki Just 24 hours ago, Japan's financial history was rewritten. The Nikkei 225 index surged violently by more than 2,700 points, standing at a historic high of 57,000 points. This is not just a numerical breakthrough but a direct pricing of the results of the shortest alternative period (16 days) since the end of World War II for the House of Representatives election— the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party secured an absolute majority of two-thirds in the House of Representatives. However, while stock traders were popping champagne, bond trading desks were on high alert. Japanese government bonds (JGB) faced a fierce selling wave, with the 30-year government bond yield soaring to 3.615%, which is akin to a tsunami in a country like Japan, known for its long-term low interest rates.
I heard that Michael Saylor was laughed at 😂 Forced liquidation is impossible, it's just that the difficulty of making promises will be slightly greater.
Binance News
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Everyone, don't confuse "liquidation panic" with "valuation pullback"! The debt structure of MSTR determines that there is no chain liquidation in the short term, but the repricing pressure caused by the disappearance of the premium is real.
Analyzing the x402 Protocol: A Technological Revolution Reshaping Future Payments
On October 25, 2025, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a phenomenal event. The x402 protocol, developed primarily by Coinbase, saw its daily trading volume exceed 150,000 transactions, an astonishing increase of 492.63% compared to the previous week. This payment protocol, based on the HTTP 402 status code, attracted the participation of tech giants like Visa, Google, and Cloudflare within just six months, and even gave rise to the PING token, which has a market value of over $20 million. This raises the question: how could an apparently ordinary technical protocol create such a massive upheaval in the industry in such a short time? The unfulfilled dream of internet payments The story begins in 1997. When the HTTP/1.1 protocol was established, engineers reserved a special status code - 402 "Payment Required". Their vision was simple: the future internet should facilitate payments as easily as transmitting information. However, this forward-thinking idea had to be shelved due to the technological conditions at the time. Credit card processing fees reached as high as $0.3, making it impossible to support micropayments of just a few cents; there was a lack of global digital payment infrastructure; and more importantly, there was no urgent demand for automated payments at that time.
Meme Coin: Why Cultural Identity is the Core Code for Price Increase
In May 2021, a 'joke coin' that was born in 2013 suddenly surged into the top ten of the cryptocurrency market capitalization. The explosive rise of Dogecoin left countless people dumbfounded and made even more people puzzled: why is this token, with a Shiba Inu avatar, worth billions of dollars? The answer lies in every forwarded meme, in every comment of "To the Moon," and even more in the cultural identity spontaneously formed by millions of holders. Today we will unveil the true value logic of Meme Coin and tell you why spreading culture is more important than urging project teams to 'pump' the price.
In-depth Analysis of Token Destruction: Mechanisms, Cases, and Market Impact
Insights from the OKB destruction event that sparked market interest OKX officially destroyed 65.25 million OKB tokens in a single event, leading to a swift and strong market reaction. CoinMarket Cap data shows that OKB's price soared to $142.88 on August 13, with a single-day increase of over 232%. This immediate price surge highlights the market's positive reception of OKX's strategy and reaffirms the common market pattern after significant token destruction announcements—when token supply is intentionally limited, investors often show stronger confidence in its long-term potential. In the turbulent waves of the cryptocurrency market, 'token destruction' has become an important tool for project parties to adjust supply and demand relationships and stabilize market confidence. This mechanism attempts to simulate scarcity value logic in the digital economy by permanently reducing the number of circulating tokens, but its actual effectiveness remains highly controversial.