Gourav-S

Short-Term Inflation Outlook Softens — New York Fed Survey Signals Dovish Shift

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing a notable decline in short-term inflation outlook among U.S. households. According to the January survey, median one-year ahead inflation expectations fell to approximately 3.1% from 3.4% in December, marking a shift in consumer sentiment about near-term price pressures. At the same time, longer-term inflation expectations at the three- and five-year horizons remained relatively stable.

The survey also highlighted improvement in labor market sentiment, with fewer respondents worried about job loss and more expecting better employment prospects over the next year. Despite this, perceptions of credit access and current financial conditions were reported as more negative compared to recent months.

Economists say declining short-term inflation expectations can be a positive sign for policymakers, as it suggests consumers anticipate slower price growth — potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate and supporting arguments for holding or even easing interest rates if broader data align. Markets have interpreted the data as dovish, with traders factoring the softened inflation outlook into future rate expectations.

Market Implication: A drop in short-term inflation expectations may bolster optimism about price stability and could influence Fed policy direction if sustained across upcoming releases.

MegaETH Mainnet Goes Live — A New Chapter for Ethereum Scalability

The highly anticipated MegaETH mainnet — a high-performance Layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum — has officially debuted, marking a major moment in the ongoing effort to address Ethereum’s long-standing throughput and latency constraints. MegaETH aims to provide real-time execution with ultra-high transaction volumes, positioning itself as a next-generation execution layer that can handle significantly more transactions per second than current rollups.

Built on advanced architecture designed for low latency and high throughput, MegaETH’s launch follows months of rigorous stress testing where the network reportedly hit tens of thousands of transactions per second (TPS) and processed billions of transactions in global load tests. The mainnet launch is intended to transition from controlled testing environments into a public ecosystem capable of supporting real-time dApps, games, DeFi protocols, and high-frequency use cases.

Market observers say MegaETH’s arrival could reshape the Ethereum scaling narrative by offering a complementary path alongside existing Layer-2 solutions, particularly for applications that demand low latency and high speed. However, success depends on sustaining performance under real-world conditions and broad developer adoption — a key next step as the network comes online.

Market Implication: MegaETH’s production launch brings renewed focus to Ethereum’s performance layers, potentially reducing network congestion, lowering fees and expanding the range of scalable, real-time blockchain applications.

CME Launches Regulated ADA, LINK & XLM Futures — New Tools for Institutional Crypto Trading

The CME Group, the world’s largest regulated derivatives exchange, has officially launched futures contracts for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM) as of February 9, 2026, expanding its cryptocurrency derivatives suite beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

These new futures products include both standard and micro contract sizes, giving traders greater flexibility and capital efficiency. Standard contracts cover 100,000 ADA, 5,000 LINK, and 250,000 XLM, while micro contracts allow smaller positions of 10,000 ADA, 250 LINK, and 12,500 XLM — making regulated futures accessible to both institutional and smaller traders.

The addition of ADA, LINK and XLM futures marks a noteworthy step in the institutionalization of altcoins, offering robust tools for hedging, risk management, portfolio diversification, and professional trading strategies under strict oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This expansion comes amid strong growth in CME’s crypto derivatives business, which reported record futures and options trading activity in 2025, underscoring rising institutional demand for regulated digital asset exposure.

Market Implication: By providing regulated, transparent futures markets for major non-BTC/ETH tokens, CME is enhancing liquidity, enabling advanced strategies, and potentially deepening institutional participation across a broader range of digital assets.

#CryptoFutures #ADA #LINK #XLM

Based on my analysis of the data, I'm telling you this: now is not the time to buy FIL.

The chart looks terrible. The price has crashed nearly 90% in just a month, and the money is flowing out fast—big players sold over a million FIL just today. The sell orders are piling up much higher than the buys. This is a textbook falling knife.

I am advising you to wait. Patience is key here. Don't try to catch the bottom. A real buying opportunity will come only when we see two things: the price starts making higher highs on good volume, and the big money flow turns positive, showing the smart money is coming back in.

Until then, your capital is safer on the sidelines. Watch and wait; your moment will come when the tide clearly turns.

#fil
$FIL

$CHESS : Short-Term Spike or Exit Liquidity?

After analyzing CHESS price action, money flow, and exchange data, my conclusion is clear: this is not an investment-grade asset anymore. Despite the short-term price spike, the 24H net outflow of nearly $8M, combined with consistent large-sell dominance, shows that smart money is exiting, not accumulating.

The volume-to-market-cap ratio near 800% confirms speculative churn rather than genuine demand. More importantly, the official delisting notice changes everything. Once an asset is delisted, liquidity collapses fast, spreads widen, and exit opportunities shrink drastically.

Even though supply is fully unlocked (no inflation risk), that alone doesn’t justify buying when structural risk is this high. Current moves look like short-term trap rallies, often seen before final liquidity dries up.

My take: This is a high-risk trade-only zone, not suitable for fresh investment. Capital preservation matters more than chasing volatility here.

#CHESS

Market sentiment remains in Extreme Fear (Fear & Greed: 9).
Total market cap dropped to $2.34T (-3.11%), while 24H volume is down 11%, showing low confidence and reduced participation.

Despite the fear, BTC ETF inflows (+$371M) suggest smart money is still active.
Fear is loud — patience matters.

250 M USDC Minted: Stablecoin Supply Boost Could Ease Market Liquidity

On-chain analytics services including Whale Alert have flagged a substantial minting event in which the USDC Treasury created 250 million new USD Coin (USDC) tokens on the blockchain. Each USDC token is backed 1:1 with U.S. dollar-denominated reserves, and the transparency of the mint was confirmed via immutable blockchain records.

This issuance adds fresh dollar-pegged liquidity to crypto markets and is widely seen as a liquidity and trading support signal rather than an indication of price direction by itself. Stablecoins like USDC play a central role in both decentralized finance (DeFi) and centralized exchange ecosystems, serving as collateral, settlement rails and trading pairs that facilitate cross-asset flows.

Market analysts note that new stablecoin supply can reduce slippage, tighten bid-ask spreads and ease borrowing costs on lending protocols, as excess lendable assets increase. DeFi platforms such as Aave and Compound may benefit from deeper pools of USDC liquidity, while traders could see improved execution efficiency across exchanges.

However, the mint itself does not guarantee price appreciation — actual impact depends on where the newly issued USDC flows next (e.g., to exchanges, DeFi protocols or institutional accounts) and broader demand for crypto assets. Traders and on-chain observers will monitor wallet movements for signs of strategic deployment or accumulation.

India’s Banking Sector Enters Transformative Phase With New RBI Reforms and Investment Rule Shifts

India’s banking sector is undergoing a series of regulatory reforms and investment rule shifts aimed at strengthening credit access, enhancing stability and attracting capital.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced several key measures effective from April 1, 2026. Banks will switch to risk-based deposit insurance premiums to incentivize stronger risk management practices, replacing the flat-rate system previously in place. The RBI has also raised collateral-free loan limits for small businesses from ₹1 million to ₹2 million and approved bank lending to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), broadening financing opportunities for real estate capital markets.

Separately, the Indian government is considering raising the foreign direct investment (FDI) cap in public sector banks from 20% to 49%, a move expected to unlock greater foreign capital and strengthen balance sheets amid rising global investor interest. This aligns with broader consolidation and resilience efforts following earlier banking mergers and consolidation initiatives.

In the Union Budget 2026, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also announced the formation of a high-level committee to review the banking sector’s future structure and efficiency, highlighting the sector’s pivotal role in supporting India’s growth ambitions.

Market Implication: These changes collectively signal a stronger, more inclusive and globally competitive Indian banking sector poised to support credit growth, financial deepening and foreign investment.

Bond Markets React to Starmer Aide Resignation as UK Yields Rise

UK government bond yields climbed sharply on Monday, driven by renewed political uncertainty after a senior aide to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer resigned, intensifying investor concerns about leadership stability and fiscal policy direction. According to market reports, the 10-year gilt yield peaked around 4.554% before settling near 4.53%, with long-term borrowing costs rising alongside movements in U.S. Treasuries.

The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, in the wake of controversy tied to the appointment of a high-profile ambassador candidate, has unsettled investors who now speculate about internal Labour Party divisions and the potential for leadership change. The political pressure comes ahead of upcoming local and by-elections, adding to concerns about future UK fiscal policy.

Market strategists say the gilt sell-off reflects heightened risk premia as investors demand greater yields to compensate for perceived political and fiscal uncertainty. The rising yields also come amid broader expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, which have softened the pound and contributed to repricing of UK assets versus global peers.

Market Implication: Higher government bond yields increase the UK’s cost of borrowing and can impact mortgage rates and corporate credit costs, while political risks may continue to weigh on both gilts and sterling until clarity on leadership and policy direction improves.

Euro Outlook Improves on ECB Stability and Dollar Dynamics

The euro has drawn increased market interest, supported by a combination of data-driven resilience in the euro area economy and stable monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB recently kept interest rates unchanged, reaffirming confidence in its medium-term outlook even as inflation eased toward the 2 % target, highlighting underlying economic resilience in consumption and investment.

Market observers note that as inflation trends and labor markets stabilise, the ECB’s neutral policy stance increases clarity on the currency’s fundamentals. Meanwhile, European markets have responded to leadership commentary advocating a larger global role for the euro, as policymakers emphasise financial system strength and the currency’s appeal amid relative U.S. dollar weakness.

Although economic indicators such as PMI and inflation have shown mixed signals in various months, improved confidence and investor positioning — combined with expectations that the euro can benefit from policy divergence with the United States and cautious rate expectations — underpin the positive outlook.

However, structural risks persist. Export competitiveness and variable growth across member states remain ongoing concerns, while inflation below target could weigh on long-term momentum if policy shifts accelerate. Despite these tensions, near-term sentiment and currency flows reflect renewed investor interest in the euro, making it a key focus in FX markets amid macro volatility.

British Pound Under Pressure From Political Uncertainty and Dovish BoE Bets

The British pound weakened sharply this week as a mix of UK political uncertainty and growing expectations of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts undermined investor confidence in sterling. Sterling slid against both the euro and the U.S. dollar, with the euro reaching a two-week high against GBP, reflecting heightened nervousness among FX markets.

Political instability intensified after the resignation of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, adding to concerns about leadership credibility and upcoming local elections. These developments sparked negative sentiment in currency and gilt markets, pushing UK government bond yields higher as investors demanded greater risk premia.

Compounding this, last week’s BoE decision to hold interest rates at 3.75 % featured a closer-than-expected vote, prompting traders to ramp up bets on future rate cuts. Markets now price increased odds of easing at upcoming BoE meetings, a scenario generally bearish for GBP.

FX analysts note that a combination of dovish monetary policy expectations and domestic political uncertainty has weakened sterling’s appeal relative to major peers. Continued rate-cut pricing and leadership questions could keep downward pressure on GBP unless fresh data or political clarity emerges.

India’s Refiners in Flux as Palm Oil Competitiveness Erodes

India’s edible oil refining sector is under pressure as palm oil — historically the cheapest imported vegetable oil — has lost its cost advantage over rival oils like soyoil and sunflower oil. Trade data and industry estimates show that palm oil imports hit multi-year lows, with shipments sliding sharply in recent months as refiners shifted to more competitively priced soft oils due to narrowing or inverted price spreads.

Palm oil traditionally comprised over half of India’s edible oil imports, but its premium relative to soyoil and sunflower oil has reduced its attractiveness. As a result, refiners have diverted volumes to soyoil and sunflower oil, whose imports climbed sharply even as palm shipments lagged. This trend has contributed to a decline in palm oil’s market share and weakened refining margins for firms with heavy exposure to palm crude processing.

Industry experts say the structural volatility in edible oil markets, driven by shifting global trade patterns and price dynamics, increases uncertainty for refiners. Longer-term, India’s reliance on imports for edible oil — which accounts for over 60% of domestic consumption — makes refiners vulnerable to global price swings and supply chain shifts.

Russian Crude Production Stable Through 2025, OPEC Data Shows

Russia’s crude oil production has stayed around 9.1–9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, according to the latest OPEC secondary sources and industry data, underscoring continued resilience despite sanctions and shifting global demand patterns. OPEC reported that Russia’s crude output averaged around 9.129 million bpd in 2025, a slight decline from 2024 levels and below its quota under the OPEC+ agreement.

Monthly tracking data also show that production was about 9.803 million bpd in August 2025 and continued near similar levels through September, reflecting ongoing output stability even as global energy markets grapple with oversupply and demand uncertainty.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has previously indicated that Russia expects to meet or gradually increase production toward its OPEC+ quota by late 2025 or early 2026, although actual compliance has been mixed amid sanctions and logistical challenges.

External pressures — including Western sanctions, reduced imports from key buyers such as India and slower export flows — have contributed to downward revenue pressure and periodic fluctuations in output, but production has remained broadly within a tight range.

Market Implication: Russia remains a major crude producer globally, with output near 9.2 M bpd, but shifting trade dynamics and sanctions could influence near-term production and export trends as 2026 progresses.

Major Loan Asset Deal in Play as Santander Seeks to De-Risk UK Lending Exposure

Banco Santander SA is advancing discussions to sell a major loan portfolio as part of broader balance-sheet optimisation efforts, a move that would mark a significant adjustment to its UK and global credit exposure. The Spanish banking group is planning to issue a risk-transfer tied to about £1 billion of loan assets, including corporate and infrastructure-linked credit, while continuing to expand its strategic footprint through acquisitions and structured finance solutions.

This initiative follows Santander’s broader programme to shed around €40 billion of credit risk through sales and risk transfers in 2026, aiming to improve capital efficiency and reallocate risk toward higher-growth areas.

One example of this trend includes a previous agreement with Blackstone Credit & Insurance, under which Blackstone acquired interests in a $1 billion infrastructure loan portfolio originated by Santander — primarily financing digital infrastructure and energy-sector assets — highlighting market appetite for high-quality bank loan assets.

Analysts say such loan portfolio deals can help Santander de-risk its balance sheet, improve capital ratios, and support growth in strategic areas like structured finance and advisory services. They also suggest that monetising existing loan books could provide liquidity and risk diversification at a time when UK lenders face evolving credit and regulatory pressures.

Market Implication: A sizeable loan portfolio sale — if completed — would signal Santander’s proactive approach to risk management and capital deployment ahead of ongoing UK market headwinds.

Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator Hits Nearly 20-Year High Amid Extreme Optimism

Bank of America’s proprietary Bull & Bear Indicator, which measures broad investor sentiment based on positioning, flows and market breadth, has surged to extreme levels not seen in nearly two decades, highlighting unusually strong bullish sentiment among global fund managers. According to recent data, the indicator climbed to around 9.6 — the highest reading since 2006 — signaling peak optimism in equity markets.

This surge reflects heightened confidence and aggressive risk-on positioning, with many survey participants underweight cash and hedges, and overweight equities, commodities and cyclical sectors. Almost half of fund managers report minimal downside protection against a sharp market drop, underscoring their belief that the market can continue to grind higher.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett cautioned that such extreme readings often coincide with contrarian sell signals, where widespread bullish consensus and crowded positioning may precede increased market volatility or pullbacks. The indicator had already issued early tactical sell signals in late 2025 as sentiment stretched beyond typical risk-off thresholds.

Despite lingering concerns about macroeconomic risks such as geopolitical tensions and rising bond yields, most surveyed managers now prefer growth assets, reflecting expectations for continued economic expansion or a “no-landing” scenario.

Market Implication: While a record Bull & Bear Indicator underscores strong investor confidence, it also serves as a contrarian warning — historically extreme optimism can be followed by increased volatility or correction periods.

UK Regulator’s Strategic Shift Could Spur Investment Into Defense-Oriented Funds

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is signaling a strategic regulatory shift that could see defense-focused fund applications gain priority attention, reflecting broader concerns about national security and economic resilience. According to recent reporting, the FCA is moving to streamline consideration of defence-oriented investment vehicles as London seeks to align the financial sector more closely with strategic policy goals in the face of geopolitical tensions and evolving defence needs.

This shift is consistent with earlier FCA guidance clarifying that its sustainability and disclosure rules do not prohibit investment in defence companies, allowing lenders and fund managers greater freedom to support defence-related firms without regulatory penalty.

The FCA’s growing focus on defence aligns with comments from its chief executive, who has described finance as needing to be “at the centre of UK defence policy” — underscoring the importance of capital markets in supporting national security objectives.

Analysts say this regulatory emphasis could encourage institutional capital flows into defence-oriented funds, including private markets, technology ventures tied to security infrastructure, and specialized public strategies. Prioritizing such applications may also reflect a broader trend of market participants increasingly viewing defence investment as compatible with sustainability and strategic economic policy, even amid ongoing debates about ESG exclusion criteria.

Market Implication: Greater regulatory support for defence fund applications may boost investor confidence and capital allocation into strategic sectors, potentially enhancing liquidity and visibility for specialized UK-based defence investment products.

India Extends Deep-Tech Startup Recognition to 20 Years to Boost Innovation

The Government of India has overhauled its startup policy to better support deep-technology ventures, extending the period during which such companies can retain Startup India recognition to 20 years from incorporation — doubling the previous 10-year window for regular startups. Under the new framework issued by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), deep-tech firms will also benefit from an increased annual turnover ceiling of ₹300 crore, compared with ₹200 crore for standard startups.

The revised policy formally defines a deep-tech startup as an entity engaged in developing novel scientific or engineering innovations with high research-and-development intensity, intellectual property creation, and long development cycles. These changes acknowledge the prolonged gestation periods and high capital requirements typical in sectors such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, space technology and advanced materials.

Policy experts say the 20-year recognition period allows deep-tech founders to retain access to government benefits, including tax incentives, loss carry-forward provisions, collateral-free loans, and eased public procurement norms, throughout extended R&D and commercialization timelines — addressing a longstanding gap that saw many firms lose startup status just as they neared market maturity.

Investors and founders suggest the reform will make India more attractive for deep-tech capital and help domestic companies compete globally by aligning regulatory timelines with the real time frames required to build breakthrough technologies.

Polymarket Leads Prediction Market Fee Generation With Strong Weekly Revenue

Polymarket has reaffirmed its position as a leading force in the prediction market sector, generating significantly more fees compared with several competitors last week as retail and event-based trading activity accelerated.

According to the latest weekly metrics compiled from market fee data, Polymarket’s platforms generated roughly $787,000 in fees over the past week through high-frequency, short-duration markets — notably its 15-minute up/down contracts — while other platforms posted lower fee tallies. Opinion captured a larger share overall thanks to its broader short-term betting format, and Kalshi dominated by volume due to its regulated event markets, but Polymarket’s fee performance remains a standout among decentralized prediction market venues.

These revenue results highlight Polymarket’s continued relevance in the prediction ecosystem, particularly as users gravitate toward rapid-resolution markets and frequent trading opportunities that yield recurring fees. Polymarket’s focus on accessible, blockchain-native contract structures has helped sustain engagement even as competitors explore alternative models and formats.

Market watchers note that while broader volumes and fees in the prediction space have reached record levels — surpassing previous benchmarks last month — Polymarket’s recurring fee generation underscores its staying power and user activity compared with smaller or newer entrants.

Market Implication: Polymarket’s fee leadership reflects its active user base and product-market fit, highlighting the platform’s role in shaping prediction market monetization and adoption.

Stablecoin settlement often struggles on general-purpose chains because they were not designed for high-frequency, cost-sensitive payment flows. Traditional blockchains treat stablecoins as secondary tokens, leading to high gas friction, unpredictable fees, and slower finality — hindering real-world use such as micropayments, remittances, and merchant settlement. A dedicated blockchain like Plasma, built purpose-fully for stablecoin settlement, enables predictable, low-latency, low-cost transfers by optimizing consensus, gas models, and native stablecoin support at the protocol level. 💳🌍

#plasma $XPL @Plasma

Vanar Chain isn’t just storing data — it’s building intelligence into the blockchain with Kayon, its decentralized AI reasoning engine. While Neutron turns documents and information into queryable “Seeds” with semantic embeddings, Kayon layers AI logic on top, letting apps, agents, and even smart contracts interpret and reason about that data on-chain without relying on external oracles or off-chain services. Kayon supports natural language queries, contextual memory, and continuous AI workflows that can trigger actions based on meaning — not just numbers. This capability moves Vanar beyond static storage into on-chain intelligence that can power automated compliance, insights, and adaptive decentralized apps.

#vanar $VANRY @Vanarchain