CryptoCulture

ETH Full Cycle Structure: Where Are We Now?
Many people are asking: Is ETH at the bottom?
I will only talk about the structure, not the emotions.
Conclusion in one sentence
ETH is currently in the 'mid-decline' of the third round cycle.
It is neither in the main rising phase nor in the confirmed bottom phase.
1️⃣ ETH's Three Major Cycles
First Cycle (2017)
ICO → Surge → Collapse
Typical bubble—clearing structure.
Second Cycle (2020–2022)
Liquidity easing → DeFi/NFT → 4800
Interest rate hikes → Dropped to 800–1000.
Third Cycle (2023–2025)
ETF + Institutionalization + Macroeconomic Binding
After another attempt to hit around 4800, it will retreat.
The current question: Is it a retracement? Or is it a cycle decline?
2️⃣ What does the monthly structure tell us?
4800 forms a double peak
Currently dropped back below 2000
No strong reversal with volume
Structural language: double peak retreat, mid-cycle entering decline
It's not a simple retracement.
3️⃣ Weekly Structure
High points cannot be lifted
Low points are gradually declining
The slope of the decline is clear
Explanation: The descending structure has not yet been repaired
4️⃣ The True Meaning of 2000
2000 is not an ordinary integer.
It is: an important pivot from 21 to 22 years, multiple cost zones, and the current long-short balance line
If the monthly line continues to close below 2000:
It may enter deeper repricing
1600 / 1200 / 1000–1400 could all be tested.
5️⃣ When is the structure considered to strengthen?
Must meet three layers:
First Layer (Stop Loss Qualification)
Weekly stop loss + appearance of higher lows
Second Layer (Structure Repair)
Stand back at 2400–2450
Pullback not breaking
Third Layer (Trend Recovery)
Monthly line stands back at 2800–2900 and maintains
Without the third layer, do not discuss the trend.
An Important Change
ETH is no longer a 'pure crypto asset.'
It is now: part of the risk asset system, highly linked with US stocks and liquidity
Future trends depend more on: global liquidity cycles, rather than narratives.
7️⃣ Judgments of the Current Stage
ETH is not dead. But it is also not in the main rise.
More like: the mid-decline of the third round cycle
If 2000 cannot hold → deeper clearing
If 2000 holds and consolidates for several months → that is the bottom signal
8️⃣ Allow / Prohibit
Allowed: Wait for the weekly stop loss, wait for 2400 to recover, small positions to test
Prohibited: Heavy bottom fishing below 2000, treating rebounds as trends, replacing structure with narratives
Summary
ETH is a liquidity amplifier.
Currently in the mid-decline.
Do not bet on rebounds, just wait for the structure to open.

More detailed analysis is in my latest article. If you want to learn knowledge, you can click on my space to take a look.

February 11, 2026, Bitcoin Structure - Phase Trend Analysis
Is the current BTC an opportunity or a trap?
Many people ask:
Can I buy at $67,000?
I do not predict price fluctuations, only look at the structure.
Conclusion in one sentence:
Current BTC is still in a downtrend structure.
The high of 97k has appeared
The rebound did not create a new high
The downtrend continues to create new lows
The daily mid-track has been lost
The volume of decline is obvious
This is not a rising fluctuation, but a declining repair.
What stage are we in now?
After the quick drop to 60k, a rebound appeared.
But the rebound did not change the trend.
This belongs to: repair fluctuation after a decline
Not a new round of initiation
Is the sentiment panicked enough?
Not yet.
The real bottom usually appears:
Extreme panic
Heavy selling
Then low volume sideways
The market begins to despair
We have not yet seen a complete structure.
When will participation be allowed?
Only two situations:
1️⃣ Trend recovery
Stand back above 75k
The daily line returns to the mid-track
4H shows higher low
2️⃣ Extreme selling to clear
Test 60k again
Panic selling
5–7 days of low volume sideways
Before this:
Do not set points
Do not discuss targets
Do not impulsively bottom fish
The market always has opportunities. What is truly scarce is not the low price,
but discipline.
——The structure is not unlocked, continue to observe. #When to bottom fish?

The recent cryptocurrency market seems to have "suddenly turned bad."\nBut if we remove the emotions, it is actually not complicated.\nWhether it's BTC, ETH, or SOL, DOGE, what is currently presented is not an issue of individual projects, but rather different manifestations of the same thing.\nThe entire cryptocurrency market is undergoing a structural downturn in a mid-cycle.\nThis round of decline is not a panic sell-off collapse, but a more typical and brutal process: \nRisk appetite is systematically retreating.\nStructurally, Bitcoin has switched from the bull market expansion phase to a mid-cycle downward structure: \nHigh points continue to decline, key structural positions are lost, rebounds cannot reclaim the core range.\nIn this context, the so-called "rebounds" are more just a normal component of the downward trend, rather than a trend repair.\nThe performance of Ethereum and mainstream altcoins is actually just a natural extension of this structure: \nRebounds are weaker, repairs are slower, and the dependence on funding risk appetite is higher.\nWhen the market no longer rewards risk, the story itself cannot support the price.\nOne cognitive bias that requires special caution is: \nTreating "too much of a drop" as "safe," and treating "rebounds" as "going well."\nBut true structural repair must meet the conditions of returning to key ranges, not making new lows on pullbacks, and having stronger buying volume than selling volume.\nBefore this, any emotional optimism lacks structural support.\nAt this stage, what the market offers is not a question of "calculating levels," but rather a question of "choosing discipline."\nFollowing the structure, being a bit slower is fine;\nGoing against the structure, being a bit faster will cause problems.\nFor most people, the most important goal at this stage is not to catch the next rebound, \nbut to avoid making structural errors and surviving until the trend is complete. #BTC走势分析

US Dollar Index: The current pullback does not represent a trend reversal; we still maintain a long-term bullish outlook, but there may be short-term fluctuations and consolidation.
At this stage, it is most important for investors not to rush into chasing prices. Decisions should be based on structural changes and support levels to determine whether to enter the market. Do not let emotions control your investment decisions; waiting for confirmation of structure before entering is the most prudent investment strategy.

If the US dollar fluctuates between the 90-92 range and rebounds, the dollar index may rise again. However, if it continues to decline and breaks below key support levels, it may enter a mid-term adjustment.
Summary and Investment Advice
Silver: Currently facing mid-term top risk, may continue to pull back in the short term; only consider re-engaging when the price returns to support levels and is confirmed.
Gold: Although entering an adjustment cycle, the long-term trend remains unchanged; it is advised to patiently wait for a pullback to key support levels before re-entering.

Gold, Silver, US Dollar Index Latest Analysis

Silver: Possible Mid-term Head, Structure Has Changed
The trend of silver has recently undergone a noticeable change, which is likely a signal of a mid-term head. Simply put, silver's rise has been too rapid, and it is now facing pressure for a correction. Moreover, this correction is not just a short-term adjustment; it may be the beginning of a long-term structural adjustment.
Why is it called a mid-term head?
Recent prices have not broken through previous highs; instead, they have started to decline. Structurally, silver has shown clear pressure at high levels.
If the price retraces to key support levels and fails to find support, this decline may continue for a while.
Downside Risk:
A significant drop in silver does not mean it will immediately "completely collapse," but it is likely to enter a mid-term adjustment cycle, requiring time to repair.
Future Trend Prediction:
Unless extreme situations occur (such as a significant contraction in industrial demand or global capital tightening), the price of silver is unlikely to drop to a few dollars.
Gold: Under Adjustment, but Long-term Trend Remains Healthy
The situation with gold is relatively simpler; the current correction does not indicate a trend reversal. It is more like a mid-term adjustment within a larger upward cycle. In other words, gold is still in a long-term upward trend, but in the short term, the market is experiencing a structural "digestion period."
Why is an adjustment seen?
Gold has risen too quickly, and the current pullback is a healthy adjustment. The market needs time to digest the previous upward momentum, and this adjustment helps create conditions for the next round of increases.
Future Trend Prediction:
In the short term, gold may enter an adjustment cycle at the monthly level, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. After this adjustment, gold is still likely to continue rising.
US Dollar Index: Under Correction, Long-term Trend Remains Strong
Although the US Dollar Index has recently experienced a correction, this does not mean the dollar has entered a bear market. In fact, the dollar remains in a long-term upward trend, with the short-term correction being more of a market adjustment and repair.
Why is the correction not a trend reversal?
Although the recent pullback of the US Dollar Index has been significant, the long-term structure has not been damaged. The current correction is merely a short-term adjustment, not a reversal of the long-term trend.
Future Trend Prediction: