btcanalysis

I studied the Bitcoin chart for a long time and came across an interesting point: how the market momentum behaves in different cycles when looking at the RSI.
The charts show a recurring pattern, and it is worth considering, even if the market is rising.

The strength of the momentum weakens with each cycle
In every major rise, it should be noted that $BTC cannot create a new RSI maximum above the previous cycle. Pay attention to the white line on the chart; everything is obvious here, especially interesting on ATX 126199, it seems that even back then the indicator hinted at a decline in BTC.

, raising concerns among traders and analysts about a possible deeper correction — potentially even toward the $50,000 region. Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed a short-term rebound of nearly 3%, offering temporary relief after Friday’s sharp sell-off. However, this bounce has done little to convince the broader market that selling pressure has fully subsided.

Losses that began late last week extended into the weekend, keeping volatility elevated. Although Bitcoin briefly reclaimed a key technical level, uncertainty remains high as market participants debate whether macroeconomic factors and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are strong enough to provide meaningful support. On-chain data and technical indicators suggest the market is still in a transition phase, with no confirmed directional trend.

Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin continues to mirror its 2022 bear market structure, a move toward fresh macro lows cannot be ruled out. In this context, long-term indicators such as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) have become critical reference points. This zone is widely viewed as a battleground between bulls and bears. Holding above it could strengthen the recovery narrative, while a breakdown would likely open the door to further downside.

Another growing concern revolves around U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current estimates suggest the average ETF cost basis sits near $82,000, placing many holders in unrealized losses at current prices. Continued downside could intensify pressure, potentially triggering additional selling and further weakening market sentiment.

Several veteran traders also argue that the market has yet to experience a true capitulation phase. According to this view, a more convincing bottom may only form if Bitcoin falls below $50,000, forcing late buyers and ETF participants to confront deeper losses. From this perspective, the recent bounce may represent a relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

That said, not all analysts agree that history will repeat itself exactly. While similarities to past cycles exist, structural changes — including institutional participation and regulated investment vehicles — could lead to different outcomes. As such, a drop to $50,000 should be viewed as a risk scenario, not a certainty.

In the broader context, the crypto market remains weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty, tight liquidity conditions, and risk-averse investor behavior. ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and global economic signals are collectively shaping Bitcoin’s next move. Until the asset begins to print higher lows and regain sustained momentum, heightened volatility is likely to persist.

In the coming days, traders will be closely watching the $58,000–$68,000 support zone, long-term moving average levels, and ETF flow data. A strong defense of these areas could gradually improve sentiment, while a decisive breakdown may set the stage for another wave of selling.

For now, Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point. The current consolidation could either evolve into a solid base for recovery or become the precursor to a deeper correction. Given the stakes, most market participants are choosing caution, closely monitoring price behavior as the next major move takes shape.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #MarketVolatility #TradingInsights $BTC

$BTC
🚀 Position Long +
Bitcoin is showing a clear structure shift on the daily timeframe after strong rejection from the bearish flag resistance. Sellers are still active, but short-term relief moves are tradable — and that’s exactly where this long setup came from.

Here’s the clean breakdown 👇

🔹 Market rejected from bearish flag resistance
🔹 Downtrend structure still valid overall
🔹 New consolidation range forming (possible mini flag)
🔹 Short-term bounce zone: $73K–$75K
🔹 Major reclaim level for trend strength: $89K–$91K

💰 Trade Status
✅ Long position active
✅ First target hit
✅ Locked in: +$1,800 profit
🎯 Next target: ~$73K zone
🛡 Stop managed to protect gains

⚠️ If BTC fails to hold strength near 73K–75K, expect another bearish expansion.
🔥 If BTC reclaims higher resistance levels → momentum shift → squeeze toward 89K+ possible.

Engagement trigger for Binance Square algorithm 👇
What’s your next BTC level — 75K or 60K first? Comment your bias.

#Write2Earn #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoTrading #priceaction #BTCAnalysis #longtrade

which has raised concerns among traders and analysts that a further decline may be possible — possibly down to $50,000. During the weekend, Bitcoin showed a short-term rebound of up to 3%, providing temporary relief after Friday's sharp sell-off. However, this bounce is not enough to convince the market that selling pressure has ended.

Losses started at the end of last week and persisted through the weekend, causing high volatility. However, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed an important technical level, but uncertainty still prevails as market participants debate whether macroeconomic factors and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are strong enough to provide support. On-chain data and technical indicators show that the market is still in a transition phase, with no confirmed directional trend.

After Bitcoin's steep price drop, one question keeps circulating: "Have we reached the bottom, or is this just the start of more pain?"

Here’s my take on $BTC after this sell-off. Let’s explore a few possibilities that could shape its next moves.

A Surprise Event, Not a Bear Market Shift
This recent sell-off might not be part of a bear market at all. It could have been triggered by a one-off, unexpected event—what we call a black swan. In this case:
The decline could be short-lived.
The damage to market structure may heal quickly.
Price could rebound rapidly once the uncertainty clears up.
This theory explains the sharp downturn without needing to believe we’re entering a long-term bear market.
Bear Markets Don’t Usually Recover with a V-Shaped Bounce
Let’s be real: bear markets don’t often bottom out with a clean, V-shaped recovery. If this marks the beginning of a longer bSurpriseins might feel too good to be true.
Fast recoveries usually end in failure.
Patience will be more important than prediction.
While quick price jumps can happen, they don’t necessarily signal that the “bottom” is in. It’s important to stay grounded and avoid premature optimism.

A Range-Bound Market Before a Clearer Shift
Markets often need time to heal. After a major sell-off, the usual pattern looks like this:

A strong initial bounce.
Followed by weeks or months of sideways movement.
Eventually, a clearer price direction begins to emerge.This range-bound phase is where market sentiment resets. It's when the big players start re-establishing their positions, setting the stage for the next major move.
Key Takeaway
Right now, it’s not about pinpointing the exact bottom. It’s about watching BTC’s behavior after the bounce:
Will BTC reclaim its previous structure quickly?
Will it settle back into a sideways range?
Or will it break down again and push even lower?
The answers won’t come from one candle alone; they’ll emerge over time as we observe the price action.
Another important point: BTC recently faced resistance at the Weekly 200 Moving Average. Historically, this level has acted as a key indicator of market cycles. In previous bear markets, BTC has spent time trading below the 200 MA before forming a durable bottom. So, a dip below this level wouldn’t indicate weakness—it could actually help confirm that we’re nearing a bear market bottom.
#BTCAnalysis #CryptoMarketTrend #BitcoinRrcovery

‎Today is Sunday, and traditional international markets are closed. However, Bitcoin never sleeps — and this pause gives traders a valuable moment to analyze calmly, plan wisely, and manage risk intelligently.

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‎📊 BTC Current Market Snapshot (4-Hour Basis)

‎4H High: $71,690

‎4H Low: $67,250

‎Bitcoin is currently trading inside a wide but healthy consolidation range, reflecting a balance between profit-taking and fresh accumulation. This zone is technically important and often acts as a decision area before the next major move.

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‎🔄 Bitcoin Weekly Performance Review (Last 7 Days)

‎The past week tested the patience of traders and investors:

‎BTC saw strong volatility, dipping sharply earlier in the week

‎Panic selling pushed price towards lower zones, shaking weak hands

‎Mid-week recovery brought BTC back above $70,000, showing buyers are still active

‎Overall, BTC closed the week mixed but resilient, holding above major long-term supports

‎👉 This behavior clearly signals that Bitcoin is not dead — it is digesting.

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‎📈 Technical & Tactical Outlook

‎🟢 Bullish Scenario (Hope for Genuine Buyers)

‎If Bitcoin successfully holds above $67,250 support:

‎Buyers may regain confidence

‎Price can revisit $70,500 – $71,500

‎A confirmed breakout above $72,000 may open the path toward:

‎$74,000 – $76,000 in coming sessions

‎📌 This scenario favors patient retail buyers who avoid leverage and respect risk management. Accumulation near strong support zones is often where smart money builds positions quietly.

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‎🔴 Bearish Scenario (Risk Awareness)

‎If BTC fails to hold $67,250 decisively:

‎Short-term pullback toward $64,000 – $63,000 is possible

‎Extreme fear could test $60,000 psychological support

‎⚠️ This is not a failure, but a liquidity sweep zone, where forced sellers exit and stronger hands often enter.

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‎🛡️ Management – The Real Key

‎✔ Avoid over-leverage

‎✔ Use stop-loss below key supports

‎✔ Trade with partial positions

‎✔ Protect capital first — profit comes later

‎In crypto, survival is success.

‎
‎🌱 Message of Hope for Retail Investors

‎Bitcoin has survived:

‎Crashes

‎Bans

‎Fear cycles

‎Bear markets

‎And every time, it returned stronger.

‎Volatility is not the enemy — emotion is.

‎Retail investors who stay disciplined, informed, and patient are the ones who benefit most when the dust settles.

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‎🧠 Final Thought

‎Bitcoin is currently in a decision phase, not a collapse.

‎Whether the next move is bullish or bearish, opportunity exists on both sides — only for those who trade with knowledge, patience, and risk control.

‎
‎Stay calm. Stay strategic. Stay hopeful.

‎
‎#bitcoin #BTCanalysis #WeeklyBTC #CryptoMarketMoves #Binance



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