Professor Of Chart By S

#USjobs
Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.
#GoldSilverRally

#WhenWillBTCRebound A lot of people are expecting the markets to pump big in 2026, but they will be wrong for some time.

Here's what Trump is planning in 2026:

PART 1: THE CRASH

Right now the U.S. economy is already looking weak:

Layoffs are rising.
Bankruptcies are increasing.
Credit defaults are building.
Housing demand is collapsing.
Home sellers are far outpacing buyers.

Because of this, there's a decent chance of a stock market correction in the next 2-3 months, similar to Q1 2025.

In this case:
• S&P 500 could fall 10%-15%
• Nasdaq could fall 15%-20%

And since crypto mostly moves alongside stocks, it will experience even bigger corrections and a possible capitulation.

PART 2: THE BLAME

During this market crash, Trump will put blame on Powell and the Supreme Court (if they rule against his tariffs).

Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, which means Trump could easily put blame on him.

Powell didn’t cut rates.
Powell kept policy tight.
Powell didn’t inject liquidity when markets weakened.

This will be done so that Powell doesn't remain a member of the Board of Governors after his term as Chair ends.

Trump knows that if Powell is still there, he could influence the decisions and could make things harder for Kevin Warsh.

PART 3: THE EASING

The moment Powell leaves and Kevin Warsh becomes the Fed Chair, easing will start.

Warsh has already hinted at tools like yield curve control, which would cap long-term bond yields and make borrowing cheaper.

Cheaper borrowing = More liquidity.
More liquidity = higher asset prices.

At the same time, other liquidity drivers could align:
• A possible $2,000 tariff dividend
• Big tax cuts
• Approval on crypto laws like the CLARITY Act.

All time will be done to pump the stock market and the crypto market.

PART 4: THE ELECTION

U.S. midterm elections are in Q4 2026, and the betting markets are showing that Republicans are losing it.

If Trump is able to pump the markets before the election and also provide some free money to average Americans, Republican winning odds could go up.

The markets will forget everything the moment prices start to go up.

Also, dividend money and tax cuts will boost small business owners' earnings.

Not only that, the market will see Powell as a culprit and blame him for everything bad that has happened.

So the theory is:
Early 2026 → Correction + blame Powell.
Mid 2026 → New Fed + liquidity easing.
Late 2026 → Market recovery into elections.

This means the next few months could be bad.

After that, accumulation will start and then the markets could see a good recovering heading into Q3-Q4 2026. #WarshFedPolicyOutlook $XRP

Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.

This is not only about rate cuts.

Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.

But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.

Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.

So his plan could involve:

- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.

- A smaller overall balance sheet.

- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.

- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.

And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.

Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.

If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.

But it came with consequences.

Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.

Now fast forward to today.

U.S. debt levels are again near World War II levels relative to the economy. Interest payments alone are approaching $1 trillion per year. Even a small drop in long term yields would save the government tens of billions in financing costs. That fiscal pressure is why Warsh’s proposal is getting so much attention.

Other countries also tried something similar.

- Japan ran yield curve control from 2016 to 2024.

Its central bank ended up owning more than 50% of government bonds. Yields stayed low, but the yen weakened and bond market liquidity suffered.

- Australia tried a smaller version in 2020–2021.

When inflation surged, they were forced into a messy exit that hurt central bank credibility.

Across all these cases, the pattern was similar:

Borrowing costs stayed low. Liquidity stayed high. Currencies weakened. Exits were difficult.

If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto.

Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives. But bonds themselves could face volatility.

Less Fed support for long term yields combined with heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the yield curve and push term premiums higher and that's why this could become the most important structural shift in U.S. monetary policy since the 1940s yield curve control era.
#WarshFedPolicyOutlook $DOGE $XRP