binance

Bitcoin recent pullback is being seen less as a chart failure and more as a liquidity issue. Ki Young Ju points out that the rally was driven by steady new capital, and that flow has now slowed. In this context, he says a deep full-cycle crash like a 70 percent drawdown would likely depend on one thing only whether Strategy shifts from being a major buyer to becoming a serious seller.
Will Bitcoin Experience Another -70% Bear Market?
In a post on Feb 1 Ki said Bitcoin is falling because sellers are still active while new money has stopped flowing in He highlighted that the Realized Cap has gone flat which shows that no additional capital is entering the market and linked this to the overall structure He explained that when realized cap is flat and market cap drops that is not a bull market.

His read is that the profit-taking has been there for a while, it was simply absorbed. Early holders, he wrote, were “sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR buying,” and “have been taking profits since early last year, but strong inflows kept Bitcoin near 100K.” The change now, in his telling, is that the bid that mattered most has faded: “Now those inflows have dried up.”
That is where the downside math shifts Ki said Strategy MSTR has been one of the main forces behind this rally but believes the kind of self reinforcing crash seen in past cycles is unlikely unless the company flips its balance sheet approach He said a deep seventy percent style collapse would only happen if Saylor aggressively sells his holdings framing it as a clear condition not an unavoidable outcome.
Still he did not say the market has already bottomed Ki said selling pressure remains and the low is not confirmed yet He added that the more likely outcome is time passing rather than a sharp flush His main view is a broad sideways phase where price can stay volatile but struggle to trend without fresh buyers stepping in.
Stablecoin Liquidity Dries Up
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost expanded on what no fresh capital really means under the hood He said stablecoin activity which is often used as a short term gauge for ready crypto liquidity has dropped hard as uncertainty remains high
The crypto market is currently going through a delicate phase marked by a structural lack of liquidity in a context of persistently high uncertainty he wrote calling it an environment not conducive to risk taking especially relative to assets like precious metals and equities that are still drawing flows.

Darkfost said the stablecoin market grew by over 140 billion dollars since 2023 but noted that total stablecoin supply started to fall in December ending that long growth phase He said the clearer signal comes from exchange flows strong inflows usually show investors want exposure while outflows point to capital protection and lower risk taking.
He highlighted October as the last clear liquidity-heavy month when average monthly stablecoin netflows exceeded $9.7B with nearly $8.8B concentrated on Binance alone conditions that supported Bitcoin’s rally toward a new all time high. Since November he said those inflows have been largely wiped out with an initial $9.6 billion drop then a brief stabilization followed by renewed net outflows of more than $4 billion including $3.1 billion from Binance.
At press time, BTC traded at $78,280.

Bitcoin is once again sitting at a level that matters. Trading above $75,000, the market is hovering over a critical weekly support zone that has already been tested and defended. What happens around this area is likely to determine whether the next major move points higher toward six figures-or lower into a deeper reset.
From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart tells a mixed but decisive story. Bitcoin has slipped below both the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, a development that often raises concern. Still, context matters. This alone does not confirm a bear market. It simply tells us the market is at an inflection point, where structure will decide direction.
At this stage, two clear paths are emerging.
Scenario One: $75K Holds and the Uptrend Survives
In the more constructive scenario, Bitcoin successfully defends the April 2025 low, with the $75,000 region acting as a durable bottom. If price holds this zone and begins to form a higher low on the weekly timeframe, the long-term trend remains intact.
That would mean the broader structure of higher highs and higher lows is still in place. The recent decline would then be viewed as a deep correction rather than a full trend reversal.
The moving averages support this possibility, even if they currently look bearish. A 20-week moving average pressing into or slipping below the 50-week moving average often appears late in corrective phases. It can mark exhaustion rather than the start of prolonged downside. For this interpretation to hold, Bitcoin must stop printing lower lows around $75,000 and show evidence of steady buyer demand returning on weekly closes.
To truly neutralize the damage and restore bullish momentum within the four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the 50-week moving average, which currently sits near $100,400. A clean weekly close above that level would signal that the correction phase has likely run its course and that bulls are regaining control.
Scenario Two: Structure Breaks and $60K Comes Into View
The second scenario is more straightforward and more dangerous. If Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low, the market structure changes decisively.
A breakdown below that level would invalidate the higher-low pattern that has defined the trend. In that case, $75,000 would no longer function as support, and downside risk would expand quickly.
Once structure fails, the $50,000 to $60,000 zone becomes the most logical area of interest. It represents a major psychological range and aligns with where markets often reset after extended high-to-low corrections. This wouldn’t necessarily imply a long-term collapse, but it would mark a much deeper cooling phase before any sustainable recovery.
What Will Decide the Outcome?
Despite all the indicators and moving averages, the decision point is surprisingly simple.
First, does Bitcoin continue to hold $75,000 on weekly closes?
Second, does the April 2025 low remain intact?
If both levels hold, the bullish scenario remains viable and the recent move can still be framed as a correction within a larger uptrend. If either level breaks, especially on a weekly closing basis, the probability shifts decisively toward a deeper move into the $50K–$60K range.
For now, Bitcoin is balanced on that line. The market isn’t offering certainty, only clarity. And clarity will come from how price behaves right here.
#Binance #wendy $BTC

The idea that money flows from gold into bitcoin once gold peaks isn’t just a theory-it’s something the market has already shown us before.
A clear example played out in 2020, and the current macro setup is starting to rhyme in ways that are hard to ignore.

What Happened After Gold Topped in 2020
In early August 2020, gold reached a major high near $2,075. What followed was not a slow fade, but a sharp pullback. Within four weeks, gold dropped close to 10%, signaling that a crowded trade was beginning to unwind.
Bitcoin did not immediately benefit. In fact, it sold off alongside gold. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell nearly 20%, sliding from around $12,000 to roughly $9,800. That drop shook confidence and forced many participants out of their positions, just as sentiment turned cautious.
That fear phase mattered. It cleared leverage and reset positioning before the real move began.
The Rotation Phase: Gold Weakens, Bitcoin Explodes

From September 2020 through April 2021, the divergence became dramatic. Bitcoin surged roughly 559%, climbing from about $9,825 to nearly $64,850. During that same eight-month window, Gold declined approximately 15%.
This wasn’t random. Capital was rotating away from defensive assets and toward higher-risk opportunities. As confidence in economic recovery improved, investors reduced exposure to gold and increased allocations to risk-on assets, with bitcoin becoming one of the biggest beneficiaries.
ISM: The Macro Trigger Behind the Shift
One of the most important macro signals during that period was the ISM Manufacturing Index. In July 2020, ISM moved above the 50 level, indicating a transition from contraction to expansion in economic activity.
That shift helped change investor behavior. When growth expectations rise, capital typically moves out of safety trades and into assets that benefit from expansion and liquidity.
Fast forward to today, and the similarity is striking. ISM has once again moved firmly above 50, printing 52.6, a level that historically aligns with improving economic momentum.
Why the Current Setup Looks Familiar
Recently, gold appears to have topped near the $5,600 area before pulling back sharply, dropping close to 20%. At the same time, bitcoin also corrected, falling roughly 15% over a similar window.
This mirrors the 2020 sequence more closely than many realize. First, gold peaks. Then both gold and bitcoin sell off together, flushing positioning and confidence. Only after that reset does capital begin to rotate decisively into risk assets.
If history doesn’t repeat but rhymes, this phase matters. Bitcoin correcting early, while gold loses momentum, creates the conditions for a potential shift in capital allocation rather than signaling weakness on its own.
What This Could Mean Going Forward
With ISM back above 50, gold showing signs of a potential macro top, and bitcoin already having absorbed a meaningful correction, the environment is increasingly consistent with a rotation narrative.
That doesn’t guarantee immediate upside, and it doesn’t remove volatility. But it does suggest that the broader macro forces that fueled bitcoin’s explosive move after 2020 may be quietly lining up again.
If capital does rotate out of gold and back into risk-on assets, bitcoin is likely to be one of the primary beneficiaries over the months ahead-not because gold is “failing,” but because market psychology is shifting once more toward growth and risk.
#Binance #wendy $BTC $ETH $BNB