Today is February 10, 2026, and a series of key economic data in the United States will be released starting today due to delays caused by the government shutdown. This will significantly affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies, thereby influencing short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
📅 Core data release schedule for this week
The following data is sorted by release time, with retail sales data being the focus for today (February 10):
· U.S. January retail sales data
· Release Date: February 10, 2026 (Tuesday)
· Key Points: A key indicator of consumer spending, reflecting the resilience of domestic demand in the economy.
· US January Non-Farm Payroll Report
· Release Date: February 11, 2026 (Wednesday)
· Key Points: The market expects about 70,000 new jobs to be added, paying attention to the annual benchmark revision's correction of 2025 data.
· Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
· Release Date: February 12, 2026 (Thursday)
· Key Points: As a high-frequency verification indicator of the labor market.
· US January CPI Inflation Report
· Release Date: February 13, 2026 (Friday)
· Key Points: The market predicts that the core CPI year-on-year increase will slightly decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%.
📊 Data Impact and Market Trend Analysis
1. Pathways of Macroeconomic Impact
The current crypto market is increasingly correlated with US stocks and other risk assets, with macro data transmitted through the following channels:
· Core Logic: Data results → Impact on Federal Reserve interest rate policy expectations → Changes in global liquidity and risk appetite → Affect prices of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
· Specific Scenario Analysis:
· If the overall data is 'strong and inflation is stubborn': it may suppress market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts or reinforce the stance of 'high rates lasting longer'. This is usually unfavorable for risk assets and may put pressure on the crypto market.
· If the overall data shows a 'moderate slowdown': that is, a mild softening in the labor market and a continuous decline in inflation, it may strengthen expectations of a 'soft landing' and interest rate cuts within the year, providing support for risk assets and the crypto market.
2. Current State of the Crypto Market
The market is in a highly sensitive and fragile state, characterized by the following features:
· Continued weakness: The market has been adjusting since the peak in October 2025, accelerating its decline recently. Bitcoin once fell below $60,000, creating a new low since September 2024, with nearly $500 billion evaporated from the market's market value within a week.
· Pessimistic sentiment: Kaiko analysis indicates that the market faces systemic pressures from declining liquidity, rising volatility, and weakened investor risk appetite. Some voices are beginning to question Bitcoin's 'digital gold' safe-haven property.
💡 Day Trading Ideas Reference
During periods of intensive major data releases, the key is to manage risk rather than predict direction.
· Primary Principle: Control Risk
· Reduce positions and leverage: Major data may trigger severe bidirectional fluctuations, and high leverage is prone to liquidation. It is recommended to actively reduce positions or use very low leverage before the data release.
· Set strict stop-losses: Set clear stop-loss points for any positions and strictly enforce them to prevent single-position losses from widening.
· Specific Operational Ideas
· Before data release (now until data publication): Primarily wait-and-see. Market liquidity may decline, and prices may experience disorderly fluctuations due to expectations.
· After data release (critical decision period):
· Do not rush to chase up or down. The initial minutes after the data release may see an exaggerated market reaction, leading to 'false breakouts'.
· Observe the market's true interpretation of the data. Focus on the reactions of the US stock market (such as the S&P 500 index), the US Dollar Index (DXY), and government bond yields to determine whether the data is perceived as 'positive' or 'negative' by the market.
· Wait for price stabilization. After 15-30 minutes following the data release, wait for the initial sharp fluctuations to calm down, then assess trading opportunities based on the new price range and technical patterns.
· Strategy Selection
· Intraday swing trading: Suitable for traders with some experience. After the data's impact becomes clear, look for trend-following trading opportunities on smaller time frames (such as 15-minute or 1-hour charts).
· Strict range trading: If a clear oscillation range forms after the data, one can buy low and sell high near the support and resistance levels of the range, but must set stop-losses outside the range.
