温暖的爱米
公众号《青思维》&推特@QingX51718【祼K技术】&【擅长心态与仓位管理】&【趋势交易】
High-Frequency Trader
4.4 Months
113 Following
2.1K+ Followers
1.5K+ Liked
15 Shared
Posts
All
Quotes
Live
PINNED
Binance has a friend chat feature. Users who like Aimi can add Aimi as a friend for interaction anytime. Aimi chat ID: aimi999. If you don't know how, see the image below:
In the Year of the Horse, I wish you a trading journey of 'an old horse knows the way'!
May you always find the broad avenue to profit amidst the complex candlestick charts. Do not charge recklessly, only make certain captures.
Capital like a mountain, profits like the wind, wishing you great fortune in the Year of the Horse!!!
May you always find the broad avenue to profit amidst the complex candlestick charts. Do not charge recklessly, only make certain captures.
Capital like a mountain, profits like the wind, wishing you great fortune in the Year of the Horse!!!
Rebirth in the Cryptocurrency Circle - I am Zhao Changpeng (Chapter One) [Novel]
Prologue: During the Spring Festival, the cryptocurrency circle is silent as liquidity is drained. Bored, I used AI to write this novel in a few minutes.
As a former 'great reporter', I am truly shocked by the speed of today's AI.
Embracing AI is very good.
Chapter One: Return to Zero and Restart
The night is deep, and the winter wind in Shanghai cuts like a knife against the face. Zhao Changpeng sits in a corner of a high-end restaurant on the Bund, in front of him is a glass of untouched whiskey. On the table lies an asset liquidation report—every number is in red, with a long string of zeros following the negative sign.
A few minutes ago, his investment company just announced bankruptcy. The reason was a wrong leveraged trade that caused him to lose everything overnight. On the phone screen, the WeChat group was silent; former partners withdrew from the group one after another, without a word of comfort.
As a former 'great reporter', I am truly shocked by the speed of today's AI.
Embracing AI is very good.
Chapter One: Return to Zero and Restart
The night is deep, and the winter wind in Shanghai cuts like a knife against the face. Zhao Changpeng sits in a corner of a high-end restaurant on the Bund, in front of him is a glass of untouched whiskey. On the table lies an asset liquidation report—every number is in red, with a long string of zeros following the negative sign.
A few minutes ago, his investment company just announced bankruptcy. The reason was a wrong leveraged trade that caused him to lose everything overnight. On the phone screen, the WeChat group was silent; former partners withdrew from the group one after another, without a word of comfort.
Success is at hand! Money is coming soon! Spring Festival market analysis...
#春节行情
Current market background: A tug-of-war between "traditional holiday" and "realistic pressure"
· Macroeconomic breather: The U.S. January CPI data released last night exceeded expectations and fell back, temporarily alleviating market concerns about the Federal Reserve accelerating tightening, providing a short-term breathing opportunity for risk assets.
· Internal "cold air" is pressing: Although external pressures have eased somewhat, the cryptocurrency market itself is undergoing a severe test. Institutional funds continue to flow out (the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $1.6 billion flowing out in February, totaling nearly $8 billion withdrawn), and market sentiment has plunged into extreme fear. Standard Chartered even warned that before the market stabilizes, Bitcoin may further dip to $50,000.
Current market background: A tug-of-war between "traditional holiday" and "realistic pressure"
· Macroeconomic breather: The U.S. January CPI data released last night exceeded expectations and fell back, temporarily alleviating market concerns about the Federal Reserve accelerating tightening, providing a short-term breathing opportunity for risk assets.
· Internal "cold air" is pressing: Although external pressures have eased somewhat, the cryptocurrency market itself is undergoing a severe test. Institutional funds continue to flow out (the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $1.6 billion flowing out in February, totaling nearly $8 billion withdrawn), and market sentiment has plunged into extreme fear. Standard Chartered even warned that before the market stabilizes, Bitcoin may further dip to $50,000.
Key elements essential for contract trading: Risk management, trading logic, psychological discipline...
<t-36/>#合约交易秘籍
Core elements for building a robust trading system
In today's rapidly developing digital economy, the cryptocurrency market has become an important component of the global financial system that cannot be ignored.
Among them, contract trading attracts a large number of investors due to its characteristics of high leverage, bidirectional operations, and 24-hour uninterrupted trading.
However, high returns are often accompanied by high risks, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, where participants lacking systematic trading strategies are prone to significant losses.
Therefore, for professional traders or advanced investors intending to engage in cryptocurrency contract trading, establishing a scientific, rigorous, and executable personal trading system is not only key to improving the winning rate but also a fundamental guarantee for achieving long-term stable profits.
Core elements for building a robust trading system
In today's rapidly developing digital economy, the cryptocurrency market has become an important component of the global financial system that cannot be ignored.
Among them, contract trading attracts a large number of investors due to its characteristics of high leverage, bidirectional operations, and 24-hour uninterrupted trading.
However, high returns are often accompanied by high risks, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, where participants lacking systematic trading strategies are prone to significant losses.
Therefore, for professional traders or advanced investors intending to engage in cryptocurrency contract trading, establishing a scientific, rigorous, and executable personal trading system is not only key to improving the winning rate but also a fundamental guarantee for achieving long-term stable profits.
Tonight at 9:30 PM, US initial jobless claims data will be released! Note the short-term volatility!!
Tonight's data overview (February 12)
· 21:30 US weekly initial jobless claims: expected 222,000 (previously 231,000). If below expectations (stronger employment), it will directly be negative; if above expectations (weak), it will relieve pressure in the short term.
· 22:30 Logan (Federal Reserve) speech: known for being 'hawkish', beware of intraday cuts.
· Next day 00:00 US January existing home sales: expected 4.16 million (previously 4.35 million), slightly weaker influence.
Core contradictions and impact logic
The current market is extremely fearful (the index has dropped to 5 or 11), most afraid of 'good data'. Last night's non-farm payrolls were exceptionally strong, significantly shrinking rate cut expectations. If tonight's initial claims fall below 222,000, it will solidify the narrative that 'the labor market is not afraid of rate hikes', and Bitcoin is likely to test the lows again; conversely, if it rebounds above 230,000, it will trigger a corrective rebound after the sharp decline.
· 21:30 US weekly initial jobless claims: expected 222,000 (previously 231,000). If below expectations (stronger employment), it will directly be negative; if above expectations (weak), it will relieve pressure in the short term.
· 22:30 Logan (Federal Reserve) speech: known for being 'hawkish', beware of intraday cuts.
· Next day 00:00 US January existing home sales: expected 4.16 million (previously 4.35 million), slightly weaker influence.
Core contradictions and impact logic
The current market is extremely fearful (the index has dropped to 5 or 11), most afraid of 'good data'. Last night's non-farm payrolls were exceptionally strong, significantly shrinking rate cut expectations. If tonight's initial claims fall below 222,000, it will solidify the narrative that 'the labor market is not afraid of rate hikes', and Bitcoin is likely to test the lows again; conversely, if it rebounds above 230,000, it will trigger a corrective rebound after the sharp decline.
Knowing when to advance and when to retreat, and being able to make choices, is essential to achieving the maximum return. This is a quality that only excellent traders understand and can achieve. 👍
#BTC #ETH
Livermore once said:
"The first dollar at the start and the last dollar at the end cannot be earned."
Why did the master say this?
The first dollar at the start of a trend is often accompanied by false breakouts and many "first dollars."
Therefore, the fish head is bony, has little meat, and carries high risk.
This is the market testing, luring, and creating the illusion of a breakout.
Only when the market has fully confirmed, breaking from the "first dollar" to the "second dollar,"
is our entry time for the trend to start.
And the last dollar
is the fish tail, with many bones, little meat, and great danger.
At this time, emotions are euphoric/panicked or excited, and reversals can happen at any moment.
We choose to only eat the "fish body,"
where the trend is clearest, momentum is strongest, and risk-reward ratio is optimal in the middle segment.
Learning to let go is sometimes also a good trade.
Livermore once said:
"The first dollar at the start and the last dollar at the end cannot be earned."
Why did the master say this?
The first dollar at the start of a trend is often accompanied by false breakouts and many "first dollars."
Therefore, the fish head is bony, has little meat, and carries high risk.
This is the market testing, luring, and creating the illusion of a breakout.
Only when the market has fully confirmed, breaking from the "first dollar" to the "second dollar,"
is our entry time for the trend to start.
And the last dollar
is the fish tail, with many bones, little meat, and great danger.
At this time, emotions are euphoric/panicked or excited, and reversals can happen at any moment.
We choose to only eat the "fish body,"
where the trend is clearest, momentum is strongest, and risk-reward ratio is optimal in the middle segment.
Learning to let go is sometimes also a good trade.
Starting today, a series of key data from the U.S. will be released this week!
Today is February 10, 2026, and a series of key economic data in the United States will be released starting today due to delays caused by the government shutdown. This will significantly affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies, thereby influencing short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
📅 Core data release schedule for this week
The following data is sorted by release time, with retail sales data being the focus for today (February 10):
· U.S. January retail sales data
· Release Date: February 10, 2026 (Tuesday)
· Key Points: A key indicator of consumer spending, reflecting the resilience of domestic demand in the economy.
📅 Core data release schedule for this week
The following data is sorted by release time, with retail sales data being the focus for today (February 10):
· U.S. January retail sales data
· Release Date: February 10, 2026 (Tuesday)
· Key Points: A key indicator of consumer spending, reflecting the resilience of domestic demand in the economy.
Yes
#BTC #ETH
Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook
After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.
In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.
At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.
After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.
For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.
At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.
Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook
After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.
In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.
At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.
After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.
For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.
At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.
Just now, Ethereum is going crazy! The amplitude exceeded 120 points in fifteen minutes!!!
Just now, Ethereum experienced a drastic 'spike' fluctuation of about 120 points within 15 minutes. The most likely reason is that a large-scale institutional deleveraging is occurring in the market, which, combined with the panic sentiment across the entire market, triggered a chain reaction.
1. Core reason: Large-scale institutional deleveraging sell-off.
· Main event: An organization named 'Trend Research' is conducting large-scale deleveraging on-chain, transferring about 332,000 ETH (worth approximately $700 million) to exchanges like Binance and selling them to repay its debts on the lending protocol Aave.
· Market impact: This massive sell-off will directly test the liquidity depth of exchanges, leading to a sharp decline in prices in the short term. At the same time, the institution still has a large collateral position on Aave, with its liquidation price range around $1,5xx - $1,8xx. The market is worried that further price drops will trigger automatic liquidations, creating greater selling pressure.
1. Core reason: Large-scale institutional deleveraging sell-off.
· Main event: An organization named 'Trend Research' is conducting large-scale deleveraging on-chain, transferring about 332,000 ETH (worth approximately $700 million) to exchanges like Binance and selling them to repay its debts on the lending protocol Aave.
· Market impact: This massive sell-off will directly test the liquidity depth of exchanges, leading to a sharp decline in prices in the short term. At the same time, the institution still has a large collateral position on Aave, with its liquidation price range around $1,5xx - $1,8xx. The market is worried that further price drops will trigger automatic liquidations, creating greater selling pressure.
Global risk assets face an indiscriminate sharp decline, with Bitcoin suffering particularly severe losses! The reasons are...
#加密市场反弹 <t-43/>#沃什美联储政策前瞻
Recently, global risk assets experienced a rare indiscriminate sell-off, with Bitcoin suffering particularly severe losses. This decline is the result of multiple factors converging.
📉 Analysis of the core reasons for the sharp decline
1. Sudden changes in macro expectations: Federal Reserve 'hawkish' concerns
· Key event: Market rumors suggest that former hawkish figure Kevin Waller may replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
· Market impact: Waller is known for criticizing quantitative easing (QE). The market is worried that even if interest rates are cut in the future, the Federal Reserve may also simultaneously reduce its balance sheet (i.e., 'quantitative tightening'). This expectation has triggered panic over tightening global liquidity, leading to the sell-off of high-risk assets.
Recently, global risk assets experienced a rare indiscriminate sell-off, with Bitcoin suffering particularly severe losses. This decline is the result of multiple factors converging.
📉 Analysis of the core reasons for the sharp decline
1. Sudden changes in macro expectations: Federal Reserve 'hawkish' concerns
· Key event: Market rumors suggest that former hawkish figure Kevin Waller may replace Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
· Market impact: Waller is known for criticizing quantitative easing (QE). The market is worried that even if interest rates are cut in the future, the Federal Reserve may also simultaneously reduce its balance sheet (i.e., 'quantitative tightening'). This expectation has triggered panic over tightening global liquidity, leading to the sell-off of high-risk assets.
Humans are social animals and slaves to their emotions. So why does FOMO exist? Often, when the crowd is going wild, it's the time to stay calm and quietly exit; while when the crowd is trembling with fear, it's a good opportunity to enter. There is a book called "The Crowd" that illustrates this perfectly in the cryptocurrency world. Maintaining calm, rational, independent thinking at all times is a trait that a mature trader must possess.
#BTC #ETH
The essence of a bull market's madness is the collective psychology reaching a boiling point.
When market sentiment is in an extreme state, prices can surge or plummet even if the fundamentals have not changed.
Enter the market before consensus forms, exit before consensus collapses.
Mean reversion is like the tide; the higher the tide rises, the greater the force of the retreat. The extent of a bear market's decline depends on how high a bull market's rise is.
Stay away from any currencies that deviate too far from the annual line.
The essence of a bull market's madness is the collective psychology reaching a boiling point.
When market sentiment is in an extreme state, prices can surge or plummet even if the fundamentals have not changed.
Enter the market before consensus forms, exit before consensus collapses.
Mean reversion is like the tide; the higher the tide rises, the greater the force of the retreat. The extent of a bear market's decline depends on how high a bull market's rise is.
Stay away from any currencies that deviate too far from the annual line.
Core market dynamics Daily operation suggestions
#美国政府部分停摆结束 <t-52/>#BTC走势分析
📉 Core market dynamics
· Market performance: The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp V-shaped fluctuation overnight (from February 3 to the early morning of February 4). Bitcoin once dropped below $73,000, while Ethereum hit a low of $2,110. The market then rebounded somewhat, but overall it still showed a significant decline.
· Market sentiment: Risk appetite has significantly declined, linked to the sell-off of US tech stocks. Experts from VanEck point out that the market is currently in a 'bear market.'
· Key data: In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount across the entire cryptocurrency network has been enormous, exceeding $700 million, with nearly 170,000 people liquidated.
📉 Core market dynamics
· Market performance: The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp V-shaped fluctuation overnight (from February 3 to the early morning of February 4). Bitcoin once dropped below $73,000, while Ethereum hit a low of $2,110. The market then rebounded somewhat, but overall it still showed a significant decline.
· Market sentiment: Risk appetite has significantly declined, linked to the sell-off of US tech stocks. Experts from VanEck point out that the market is currently in a 'bear market.'
· Key data: In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount across the entire cryptocurrency network has been enormous, exceeding $700 million, with nearly 170,000 people liquidated.
Trump's tariff policy announced (effective February 1) large leveraged positions liquidated! The market plummets!!!
The crypto market has plunged significantly across the board, primarily due to the combination of macro policy uncertainty and a fragile market structure, leading to large-scale leveraged liquidations.
Core facts and reasons for today's sharp decline analysis
This decline is not caused by a single event, but rather the result of multiple factors working together:
· Main trigger: Macro policy shock: The U.S. tariff policy on Europe took effect on February 1, raising concerns about global economic uncertainty and risk aversion in the market. This hit the preference for risk assets, including crypto assets.
· Direct driving force: High leverage chain liquidations: The market was already weak in uncertainty, and the initial price drop triggered forced liquidations of a large number of high-leverage long positions. This created a vicious cycle of 'drop → liquidation → sell-off → further decline.'
Core facts and reasons for today's sharp decline analysis
This decline is not caused by a single event, but rather the result of multiple factors working together:
· Main trigger: Macro policy shock: The U.S. tariff policy on Europe took effect on February 1, raising concerns about global economic uncertainty and risk aversion in the market. This hit the preference for risk assets, including crypto assets.
· Direct driving force: High leverage chain liquidations: The market was already weak in uncertainty, and the initial price drop triggered forced liquidations of a large number of high-leverage long positions. This created a vicious cycle of 'drop → liquidation → sell-off → further decline.'
Kevin Warsh nominated as the next chair: Is it bearish or bullish for the crypto market?
The fluctuations in the global market are primarily due to investors responding to two significant changes:
The shift in decision-making style of the Federal Reserve in the coming years, along with the decline in global capital trust in dollar assets.
Warsh's nomination is a direct trigger, but the deeper reason lies in the recent acceleration of the trend to 'sell off America.'
1. Nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair: Policy uncertainty and 'hawkish' concerns.
· Core of the event: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
· Market interpretation: Warsh was a supporter of tightening policies during the financial crisis, and although he has recently shifted to support rate cuts, analysts believe he is 'not as dovish compared to other candidates and will tend to favor fewer rate cuts.' His policy proposals (such as supporting interest rate cuts while calling for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size) also introduce complexity.
The shift in decision-making style of the Federal Reserve in the coming years, along with the decline in global capital trust in dollar assets.
Warsh's nomination is a direct trigger, but the deeper reason lies in the recent acceleration of the trend to 'sell off America.'
1. Nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair: Policy uncertainty and 'hawkish' concerns.
· Core of the event: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
· Market interpretation: Warsh was a supporter of tightening policies during the financial crisis, and although he has recently shifted to support rate cuts, analysts believe he is 'not as dovish compared to other candidates and will tend to favor fewer rate cuts.' His policy proposals (such as supporting interest rate cuts while calling for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size) also introduce complexity.
Key Points of the Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Trend Analysis
On January 28, 2026 (Beijing time, early January 29), the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Although this decision aligned with the market's general expectations, its content and Powell's statements were interpreted by the market as 'hawkish,' bringing new uncertainties to the cryptocurrency market.
Key points of the Federal Reserve's decision
1. Interest rate decision: Pause on rate cuts
· Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
· Voting: 10 votes in favor, 2 votes against. Two board members advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Market expectations: Before the meeting, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January was extremely low, only 2.8%.
Key points of the Federal Reserve's decision
1. Interest rate decision: Pause on rate cuts
· Decision: Maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
· Voting: 10 votes in favor, 2 votes against. Two board members advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Market expectations: Before the meeting, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January was extremely low, only 2.8%.
Federal Reserve interest rate decision + U.S. government shutdown event, short-term operations need to be cautious!
On January 28, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical decision point overall, with a bearish trend, but there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term. The main feature is fierce competition between bulls and bears in a narrow range, with market sentiment being cautious.
Overview of core market dynamics
· Overall sentiment: The technical outlook is bearish, with capital flowing towards gold and the stock market. The market is sensitive to macro events (such as the potential shutdown of the U.S. government).
· Key range for Bitcoin: $86,000 - $90,000 is the current core battlefield. Heavy resistance above, with buying support below.
· Key range for Ethereum: Contesting around $3,000. Strong resistance above, requires a significant breakout.
Overview of core market dynamics
· Overall sentiment: The technical outlook is bearish, with capital flowing towards gold and the stock market. The market is sensitive to macro events (such as the potential shutdown of the U.S. government).
· Key range for Bitcoin: $86,000 - $90,000 is the current core battlefield. Heavy resistance above, with buying support below.
· Key range for Ethereum: Contesting around $3,000. Strong resistance above, requires a significant breakout.
Recent key dynamics - Market trend analysis
#以太坊巨鲸异动 #加密周期
Recent market dynamics and direct impacts
This morning (January 26), global risk assets faced a sell-off:
· Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin once fell below $86,500, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum dropped to around $2,800, with a decline of over 5%. In the past 24 hours, over 200,000 people globally faced liquidation, amounting to $664 million.
· Related markets: U.S. stock index futures and the U.S. dollar index fell simultaneously, while gold broke through $5,000/ounce for the first time, and silver also hit a new high.
Core influencing factors: Three major geopolitical and economic events
This severe fluctuation was mainly triggered by the following three sudden geopolitical and economic events:
Recent market dynamics and direct impacts
This morning (January 26), global risk assets faced a sell-off:
· Cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin once fell below $86,500, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum dropped to around $2,800, with a decline of over 5%. In the past 24 hours, over 200,000 people globally faced liquidation, amounting to $664 million.
· Related markets: U.S. stock index futures and the U.S. dollar index fell simultaneously, while gold broke through $5,000/ounce for the first time, and silver also hit a new high.
Core influencing factors: Three major geopolitical and economic events
This severe fluctuation was mainly triggered by the following three sudden geopolitical and economic events:
Login to explore more contents