Tonight's data overview (February 12)
· 21:30 US weekly initial jobless claims: expected 222,000 (previously 231,000). If below expectations (stronger employment), it will directly be negative; if above expectations (weak), it will relieve pressure in the short term.
· 22:30 Logan (Federal Reserve) speech: known for being 'hawkish', beware of intraday cuts.
· Next day 00:00 US January existing home sales: expected 4.16 million (previously 4.35 million), slightly weaker influence.
Core contradictions and impact logic
The current market is extremely fearful (the index has dropped to 5 or 11), most afraid of 'good data'. Last night's non-farm payrolls were exceptionally strong, significantly shrinking rate cut expectations. If tonight's initial claims fall below 222,000, it will solidify the narrative that 'the labor market is not afraid of rate hikes', and Bitcoin is likely to test the lows again; conversely, if it rebounds above 230,000, it will trigger a corrective rebound after the sharp decline.
Intraday trend and trading strategy
· Main strategy (high short): Pressure in the range of 68,500-69,000 (especially with negative initial jobless claims), light positions to short, target 67,000 or even 66,500, stop loss above 70,000.
· Secondary strategy (low long): Only when stabilizing between 66,500-67,000 and initial jobless claims worsen significantly. Quick in and out, target 68,500, no holding positions.
· Taboo: Do not heavily bet on direction before data release; before 70,000 stabilizes, treat all rallies as rebounds rather than reversals.
Please remember, we are currently in the "liquidity test" phase, cash is ammunition, and before right-side signals appear, observing more and acting less is also profitable.