2. Possible partial shutdown of the U.S. government

Summary: If new funding is not approved, a partial shutdown of the U.S. government could begin on February 14, 2026. The prediction market Polymarket assigns a 66% probability to this event. What it means: A shutdown could reduce liquidity in financial markets and generate volatility in cryptocurrencies, similar to the sharp decline observed during the shutdown at the end of January. This would increase macroeconomic uncertainty, which tends to negatively affect speculative assets. (Potential Partial U.S. Government Shutdown)

3. Final SEC deadline for crypto ETF applications

Summary: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must make a final decision by March 27, 2026, on 91 pending applications for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) related to cryptocurrencies, including 24 different tokens. What it means: Approval, especially for altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP, would open an important channel for regulated institutional investment, which could attract large capital flows. Rejections or delays could negatively affect sentiment towards those assets. (SEC Final Deadline for Crypto ETF Requests$BTC